Aaron Montell

7.8K posts

Aaron Montell

Aaron Montell

@AaronMontell

Mortgage Broker, Trader, CMT Candidate, Curator of "Macro To Mortgage", @U2 Fan, and Part-Time Radio DJ @973KBCO @1035TheFox AKA "Double A" #IndependentVoter

Denver, CO Katılım Şubat 2011
651 Takip Edilen462 Takipçiler
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Aaron Montell
Aaron Montell@AaronMontell·
I can't tell if the take on #mortgagerates and #InterestRates from the #mortgage industry is a mix of recency bias, denial and hopium, or just propaganda. Reality is the 40-year trend of lower rates, lower / stable inflation is O-V-E-R. - It ended in 2022.
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David Adler
David Adler@davidrkadler·
We have never been so fucked
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Bob Elliott
Bob Elliott@BobEUnlimited·
Equity Analyst Delusions Surging expectations driving sharply falling PEs reflect an impossible mix of sky high energy gains with no broader economic hit, suggesting the strong growth vs. falling prices narrative is nonsense. bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/equity-analy…
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Heidi
Heidi@HeidiOCanada·
The rumors may be false. But the hope is real.
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Javier Blas
Javier Blas@JavierBlas·
Iran can remain irrational longer the Donald Trump (and the global economy) can stay solvent.
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ITDUDE F.E.L.L.A
ITDUDE F.E.L.L.A@The_Real_ITDUDE·
For sake of all humanity
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Melanie D'Arrigo
Melanie D'Arrigo@DarrigoMelanie·
Trump’s kids buy into drone companies Trump cancels existing drone contracts Trump’s kids’ companies get military contracts Trump starts wars Trump’s kids’ try to sell their drones to the countries being attacked because of Trump’s wars 👉🏻 This is what corruption looks like.
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Stephen King
Stephen King@StephenKing·
Trump is so idiotic it is beyond description even for the guy who wrote PET SEMATARY and MISERY. I can’t even.
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Aaron Montell
Aaron Montell@AaronMontell·
@mortgagetruth Not to belabour the point, but it's not a coincidence that 2022 was also when the decades-long negative correlation between equities and bonds came apart, now flipping between weakly correlated and uncorrelated. The market has been telling us things have changed.
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Aaron Montell
Aaron Montell@AaronMontell·
@mortgagetruth For the same reason. The 40-year period where #inflation moved from the top right to bottom left is over. Inflation has been above "target" for 5-years. QE "worked" in a disinflationary environment; we live in an inflationary environment. Inflation events are double top events.
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Aaron Montell
Aaron Montell@AaronMontell·
I can't tell if the take on #mortgagerates and #InterestRates from the #mortgage industry is a mix of recency bias, denial and hopium, or just propaganda. Reality is the 40-year trend of lower rates, lower / stable inflation is O-V-E-R. - It ended in 2022.
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Palitos
Palitos@RogaineTrader·
@AaronMontell That's why I pointed it out Nothing wrong with how you defined the bottom, but I like to add horizontal levels to add price level context 2016 was in fact the reversal (not 2012), when the downtrend converged w the 2016 double bottom and broke higher
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Aaron Montell
Aaron Montell@AaronMontell·
@RogaineTrader I'm going to borrow this...Unfortunately, Housing has to care about the 10yr, but the 10yr doesn't care about Housing.
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Palitos
Palitos@RogaineTrader·
@GMillerMortgage @AaronMontell Unfortunately, Housing has to care about the 10yr, but the 10yr doesn't care about Housing Aaron's analysis can be disputed, but to his point, he is providing a technical basis for the direction of rates, not what he wants to happen or a rigid narrative on direction
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Palitos
Palitos@RogaineTrader·
@AaronMontell Another perspective is that the 2012 bottom was the end of the secular bull mkt, that was tested and confirmed in 2016 The 2020 breakdown was a capitulation/false break that set up the current bear market where we are seeing higher lows Housing take is all of the above
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Aaron Montell
Aaron Montell@AaronMontell·
... It's not just the US 10-year yield that could move much higher. #MortgageRates #Interestrates #inflation
The Great Martis@great_martis

⚠️Concerning.⚠️ The Euro 10yr bond is extremely concerning🚩 A possible measured move is in play, as depicted by the monthly chart shown below. We currently sit above the ceiling of resistance, which for now looks like the break might be legit. IF we get confirmation and price starts to rise from current levels .... and soon ...then the second leg of the potential measured move gets activated. If this holds true (and it likely will), yields won’t stop rising until equities are mauled. It’s that simple. Stay vigilant, remain diligent, and most important of all… stay informed.✍️ Yours truly, The Great Martis✨ She's beautiful.

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Aaron Montell
Aaron Montell@AaronMontell·
Into the weekend, short $SPX nearly -1,000 deltas... and I don't think it's nearly enough. 😨
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Ed Krassenstein
Ed Krassenstein@EdKrassen·
BREAKING: The U.S. government will now insure losses up to $40 billion for oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz. But they can’t insure you if you get cancer or have a heart attack. Big oil is more important than your life in Trump’s America. Did you vote for that?
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Lawrence Lepard, "fix the money, fix the world"
Lawrence Lepard, "fix the money, fix the world"@LawrenceLepard·
Richard Nixon is dead. But the chaos he unleashed when he took us off the last vestige of the gold standard in 1971 is now coming to full bloom. This Fourth Turning is entering the very dangerous phase. Pray for peace.
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Keşfet

@BobEUnlimited @SlopeOfHope @mortgagetruth @RogaineTrader @GMillerMortgage @elonmusk @BarackObama @taylorswift13