امیرعلی ابوالفتح Amir.A Abolfath
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امیرعلی ابوالفتح Amir.A Abolfath
@Abolfath
تحلیلگر روابط بین الملل با تمرکز بر مطالعات امریکا https://t.co/2nNHOyMbwc%… کانال من در تلگرام https://t.co/aoYw1pt5zQ














آخرین فرصت برای اینکه بشود با تدبیر جلوی یک ویرانی بزرگ را گرفت فرداست. نظام حکمرانی در ایران با یک منطق مشخص از سوی دولت قلدر ترامپ روبروست: «یا امتیاز میدهید، یا خسارتی بزرگ به شما تحمیل میکنیم که مجبور شوید امتیاز دهید» در این گزاره تنها نقطه ابهام اینست که آیا میتوانند خسارتی بزرگ تحمیل کنند یا بلوف است؟ پاسخ در میزان بودجه نظامی دو طرف است: ایران ۱۰ میلیارد دلار در سال و آمریکا ۹۹۶ میلیارد دلار که یعنی بلوف نیست و میتوانند. عاقل همینجا توقف میکند و نتیجه برایش روشن میشود. اما ممکن است بعضی بگویند ایران هم میتواند هزینههایی تحمیل کند ولی عاقل اینگونه به این نامعادله مینگرد: اگر در دعوایی ۱۰ دندانت شکست ولی تو هم توانستی سیلی به گوش طرف مقابل بزنی آیا اگر بتوانی با حتی باج دادن جلوی این دعوا را بگیری این به نفع توست یا نه؟ اما آیا همان سیلی را میتوان فروخت؟ بله میتوان اما قبل از شروع درگیری و در مذاکرات پنجشنبه نه پس از شروع. پس چه باید کرد؟ دو راه بیشتر نیست: یا از این فرصت استفاده میشود و بازی درستی ترتیب داده میشود و از قدرت بازدارندگی اندک همان سیلی استفاده میشود و امتیازاتی نامتقارن داده میشود و فعلا کشور از زیر بار فشار جنگ خارج میشود و بعد شروع به اصلاح در رویههای غلط داخلی و خارجی میکنند یا منتظر میمانند که ۱۰ با ۹۹۶ درگیر شود تا به چشم ببینند نتیجه محتوم چه میشود و بعد سعی میکنند با هزینه به مراتب بالاتر از زیر فشار خارج شوند. پ.ن: برای آنهایی که به هر ترتیبی حتی با دخالت خارجی و بدون در نظر گرفتن تبعات میخواهند نظام سیاسی را عوض کنند هم بگویم که ترامپ به هیچوجه کاری برای مردم ایران نمیکند. بیخود در ترامپ دنبال سعادت نگردید. جنگ جز بدبختی چیزی برای مردم ندارد. تاریخ گواه این گزاره است.

دوستانی که بیانیه «نه به جنگ» داده اید: شعار «مرگ بر آمریکا» و «مرگ بر اسرائیل» حکومت را چرا محکوم نکردید؟ بله، جنگ بد است اما سیاست های خامنه ای مارا به این جا کشانده و باید عوض شان کرد


مارکو روبیو، وزیر خارجه آمریکا و مشاور امنیت ملی دونالد ترامپ گفته علاوه بر برنامه هستهای ایران، موشک های بالستیک این کشور و توان دریایی آن در خلیج فارس هم برای آمریکا خطر جدی محسوب میشود. bbc.in/4sbzFPR


Why Kathleen Johnson (@KathleenJOnX) Stands on the Right Side – Morally, Ethically, and Legally 1. Two days ago (February 23, 2026), Donald Trump posted a lengthy message on Truth Social: “If Iran does not submit to my demands, it will be ‘a very bad day for that country – and sadly for its people too.’” (Trump, Truth Social, February 23, 2026: @realDonaldTrump/posts/114567890123456789" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTru…
) 2. Trump knows bombing Iran means bombing Iranian civilians and destroying their infrastructure. Experts say the real goal is not regime change, but rendering Iran stateless and fragmenting it for Israel’s benefit. 3. Reza Pahlavi (@PahlaviReza), Yasmine Pahlavi, and Noor Pahlavi (@noor_pahlavi) are effectively agents of Mossad and Israel. When Israel bombed Iran during the 12-day war, killing nearly 1,200 Iranians, a BBC English reporter asked Reza Pahlavi: “What is your view on the killing of Iranian civilians by Israel?” He replied: “Israel does not kill Iranian civilians. Israel is targeting political and military leaders of the Islamic Republic.” The BBC host was visibly stunned by the answer. 4. Last month, Reza Pahlavi went on Fox News and openly called for a U.S.–Israeli military strike to change the regime in Iran. The Fox host – herself hawkish and anti-Iran – pressed him: “Do you realize how many civilians would die from missile strikes on every government, military, police, and security center in order to achieve the regime change you demand?” Reza Pahlavi answered: “We have no other choice if we want victory.” Even the Fox anchor was shocked by his callousness. (Fox News interview with John Roberts, January 19, 2026: foxnews.com/video/63879586…) 5. Reza Pahlavi then repeated the same call in interviews with CNN and French television, demanding U.S. and Israeli military action to topple the regime. He knows full well that without American and Israeli bombs falling on Iran, there is no path for him, his wife, or his daughter to ever become Shah, Shahbanu, or Crown Prince/Crown Princess again. (CNN interview with Jake Tapper, January 23, 2026: edition.cnn.com/2026/01/23/wor…; BFMTV French TV interview, June 23, 2025: rezapahlavi.org/en/in-news/int…) 6. Yasmine Pahlavi, who travels to Israel with Reza and constantly meets Israeli officials, joined a pro-Israel rally in Washington during the early days of Israel’s assault on Gaza – when the world was calling for a ceasefire – waving an Israeli flag in support of continued war. 7. During the second or third day of Israel’s bombing of Iran in the 12-day war, Yasmine Pahlavi posted a story (see attached image 1) with the caption: “Hit them, Israel – Iranians are behind you” + hashtags #جاوید_شاه and #ایران_آزاد. This level of betrayal against one’s own country is unmatched by any royal family in the world. 8. Noor Pahlavi – Reza Pahlavi’s daughter, whom they call the Crown Princess, who does not speak Persian fluently, reads from English or French scripts prepared for her – was sent by her father to pro-Israel gatherings. Throughout the Gaza war, she constantly promoted and defended Israel on her Instagram. 9. On February 24, Noor Pahlavi reposted the CIA’s Persian message urging Iranians to contact them securely and provide information (see attached image 2). A self-proclaimed future queen of Iran is openly encouraging Iranians to spy on their own country for the CIA. 10. Emily Schrader (@emilykschrader) spent 30 months defending Israel’s genocide and war crimes in Gaza in Western media. She recently admitted on Twitter that she works with the Israeli army’s cyber-intelligence unit – sparking massive outrage. Among the reactions, Abby Martin (@AbbyMartin) called out her 30 months of lies in a tweet that received 1.2 million views. x.com/AbbyMartin/sta… Emily Schrader has appeared alongside Reza Pahlavi everywhere for years – in the U.S., Israel, Toronto, London. She was even one of the main speakers at the recent Munich monarchist gathering. 11. Under the laws of the United States, Canada, Europe, Australia, and Israel, the penalty for treason is life imprisonment or death. In the U.S., this is enshrined in Article III, Section 3 of the Constitution. Reza, Yasmine, and Noor Pahlavi claim they want the bombing of the Islamic Republic regime – and they are cooperating with the bombers. Yet Israel and the U.S. already bombed Iran in the 12-day war. And if they bomb again, as Trump explicitly stated: Iran and its people will suffer terribly. 12. These facts alone are sufficient to prove that people like Kathleen Johnson (@KathleenJOnX), who oppose U.S. and Israeli military action against Iran, stand on the morally, ethically, and legally correct side. War means the slaughter of Iranians and the destruction of Iran. Today, not only prominent American liberals and leftists, but also America’s far-right (Tucker Carlson @TuckerCarlson, Alex Jones @RealAlexJones, Candace Owens @RealCandaceO, Marjorie Taylor Greene @RepMTG, Nick Fuentes @NickJFuentes, Steve Bannon @WarRoomPandemic, Megyn Kelly @MegynKellyShow, Rand Paul @RandPaul, Thomas Massie @RepThomasMassie, Laura Loomer @LauraLoomer, Jack Posobiec @JackPosobiec, Mike Benz @MikeBenzCyber, David Smith libertarian @DavidSmithLib, David Alan Stockman @DavidAStockman, Jeffrey Sachs @JeffreySachs, and many others) strongly oppose a U.S. military attack on Iran. Kathleen Johnson is not alone; millions of Iranians and Americans who oppose war stand with her. 💪🕊️







