#UFCVegas117 Oracle Analysis
Allen v Costa: a slick, competition-proven boxer vs a blazing-hot knockout artist. Allen is dangerous when he can showcase his boxing, so expect Costa to tap into his BJJ past and get this fight to the ground (after trying to stand and throw with a more technical striker). The public is on Allen, but sharps have hammered Costa from +140 to +105. Allen hasn't been in a five round fight since 2023 and Costa never has - this fight will be decided in rounds 4 and 5.
Choi v Santos: Choi has looked better than any could've imagined after being away from the sport for so long. His lighting hands and slick striking have faired him well during this resurgence, but the style matchups have been favorable. Santos presents extreme offensive pressure and has knockout power. While majority of bettors see value in The Korean Superboy, I believe Santos will be too much for Choi. This is also the third consecutive South Korean Santos has faced in the last year (currently 2-0).
Wellmaker v Diaz: In his first outing since being stunned by Ethyn Ewing, Wellmaker looks to reestablish himself as a potential ranked contender. Diaz showed-out with a nasty spinning back elbow on DWCS, but he was losing that fight until that point. Wellmaker gets back on track with a dominant performance.
Cuamba v Sopaj: Cuamba has the intangibles to be a good fighter, but his defensive gameplans are horrendous. He absorbs more strikes than he lands and struggles to keep opponents at range even with his reach. Sopaj is an explosive grappler that succeeds in the clinch, but his cardio is very questionable. With grappling pressure and securing top control, Sopaj will secure a unanimous victory.
Veretennikov v Williams: For someone with his size, strength, and reach, Khaos Williams really struggles with pressure. This has really been exposed in his last two fights. He still presents that big power hook, but it hasn't landed in almost 2 years. Williams presents 0 offensive grappling threat (even after training with Usman i.e. Joaquin Buckley) and is susceptible to being taken down. Nikolay Veretennikov clinch and grapples his way to victory.
Tokkos v Erslan: I am shocked by the line here. This feels like the Tafa v Tokkos fight all over again. Ivan Erslan has conceded multiple takedown attempts in EVERY UFC appearance. If Tokkos comes out with an extremely wrestling-heavy style like his last fight, he should get it done. Erslan presents KO power, but is not going to keep this fight off the ground if the first one doesn't land. Tokkos by SUB is certainly tempting in this spot.
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