Achyuta Rajaram

The Jensen Huang episode. 0:00:00 – Is Nvidia’s biggest moat its grip on scarce supply chains? 0:16:25 – Will TPUs break Nvidia’s hold on AI compute? 0:41:06 – Why doesn’t Nvidia become a hyperscaler? 0:57:36 – Should we be selling AI chips to China? 1:35:06 – Why doesn’t Nvidia make multiple different chip architectures? Look up Dwarkesh Podcast on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, etc. Enjoy!

Don't start a startup in high school. What if it works? You'll lose the opportunity you'd otherwise have to explore random, interesting ideas, driven only by curiosity. Because while you will indeed learn a lot from a startup, you won't have any choice about what you learn.

Answer: Learning rate was set to time.time()

There is this narrative that up until this week, Anthropic had this wonderful contract that prevented the U.S. government from doing mass domestic surveillance or autonomous lethal weapons, and now all hell will break lose. As I wrote, I am not a fan of accelerating AI specifically in the national security space. If I had been an Anthropic employee at the time they signed their original deal with the DoW, I would have probably opposed it, especially given the reduced control since they worked through Palantir. And I don't think having some terms of use in the contract is what we can rely on to protect us. I believe the drama of the last week about these terms of use is more about politics than substance. The substance is about the details, which I hope more of which will come out soon. But it is wrong to present the OAI contract as if it is the same deal than Anthropic rejected, or even as if it is less protective of the red lines than the deal Anthropic already had in place before. Obviously I don't know all details of what Anthropic had before, but based on what I know, it is quite likely that the contract OAI signed gives *more* guarantees of no usage of models for mass domestic surveillance or autonomous lethal weapons than Anthropic ever had.

We estimate that Claude Opus 4.6 has a 50%-time-horizon of around 14.5 hours (95% CI of 6 hrs to 98 hrs) on software tasks. While this is the highest point estimate we’ve reported, this measurement is extremely noisy because our current task suite is nearly saturated.

nearly all of the best engineers i know are switching from claude to codex

Whoa Dwarkesh! Open markets are way better than redistribution. With ASI, the question isn’t “will capital eat the world?” (Piketty’s long run series are disputed, btw.) If entry is open, competition forces the gains to spread—prices fall, quality rises, everyone gets richer, no mass Communism needed. If government policy and regulation harden moats and pick winners, you get dynasties.