Action Combat retweetledi
Action Combat
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Action Combat
@ActionFights
@ActionNetworkHQ's hub for everything sports bettors need to know about MMA & Boxing. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler
Katılım Ocak 2019
50 Takip Edilen957 Takipçiler
Action Combat retweetledi
Friendly reminder that this week's UFC card is early tomorrow morning and you do not want to miss the Main Event!
@SeanZerillo and @Psychoward586 give out their best bets for Jack Della Maddalena vs Carlos Prates
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Action Combat retweetledi
26 fighters are set to weigh in right now
Great window to grab underdogs on @Polymarket
Any bad weight cuts or misses that lead to cancellations → underdog shares settle at 50¢
Once all fights are confirmed, I'm exiting the positions
Prediction Labs@predictionlabs
Prediction markets and sportsbooks do NOT resolve the same way The UFC is a perfect example Sportsbooks void cancelled fights Polymarket resolves them to 50/50 That tiny difference opens up completely new ways to make money on fights 🔍 Major sports like the NFL/NBA almost never get cancelled UFC fights get nuked constantly — injuries, weight misses, rescheduling, visa issues, etc. So favorites carry cancellation risk and underdogs inherit a cancellation bonus Buy a $0.30 dog → cancelled → paid $0.50 67% ROI without the fight even happening The strat here is to always get exposure to the cancellation bonus Buy underdogs when markets open, monitor training posts, wait for weigh-in chaos Once the fight is guaranteed, bet the favorite side to come out risk free You just free rolled the cancellation bonus This already happened twice in 2026 and the UFC hasn’t even started yet 🤦♂️ Variables like liquidity and price action will matter, but with the amount of uncertainty there is in MMA, farming cancellations can be +EV 💰
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✅ FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE
Aaron Pico DOMINATES Patricio Pitbull by UD earning his first UFC victory, cashing @SeanZerillo's best bet 💰 #UFC327
Action Network@ActionNetworkHQ
🥊 UFC 327 BEST BET 🆚 PATRICIO PITBULL vs AARON PICO 📈 FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE 👇 Apply Directly To Your Betslip bit.ly/PITBULLPICOUFC… 🗣️ "Despite the age gap, you could argue that Pitbull is not only more durable, but significantly so, and that he'll be one big punch away from a knockout for the duration of this fight. Pico remains the better – and faster – boxer, and the bigger man (2" taller, 3" reach advantage), but will look to use his wrestling to dominate the matchup given those durability concerns. And despite Pitbull's low center of gravity, I think the differential in fast-twitch explosiveness will matter most in the grappling exchanges. I do show a small edge on the fight to reach a decision (projected +113, listed +135), which I would take small to +125. Pico may fight more conservatively and focus on securing and maintaining top position to register his first UFC Win." -@SeanZerillo
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Action Combat retweetledi
🚨 Padilla vs Mederos got overturned to a draw
They originally read the scorecards wrong, another fight happened after, sand then the result got changed
That’s two weeks in a row now the UFC has had issues reading scorecards correctly
Really curious how sports books are settling this since most would have already graded the market for Padilla
Also worth noting, without the point deduction our Mederos read was spot on
Thought this one was a loss at first so definitely grateful to still come away with profit 😂
Prediction Labs@predictionlabs
🚨 Chris Padilla was the only fighter to miss weight today There’s an interesting trend here 👇 Across 300+ tracked MMA fights, fighters who miss weight lose ~57% of the time Gets more interesting when you filter by odds When the fighter who didn’t miss weight is priced ~40%, they’ve historically won over 60% of the time Line has been steady all week: Padilla 60% Mederos 40% Beyond the data, stylistically this sets up well for Mederos 11-1 record, primarily a striker Opponents have needed constant grappling to give him trouble Padilla isn’t known for heavy wrestling and a tough weight cut could contradict his pressure style Taking some Mederos at 40% ⏳
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Action Combat retweetledi
🥊 UFC 327 BEST BET
🇳🇿 CARLOS ULBERG MONEYLINE
👇 Apply Directly To Your Betslip
bit.ly/ULBERGUFC327
🗣️ "Jiri has the better gas tank, and I trust his gameplanning and recoverability more in an extended fight, but chin-for-chin from the outset, I'm taking Ulberg's durability; Jiri has four knockout losses throughout his career, and he's been badly hurt, wobbled, or knocked out and come back to life (against Dom Reyes) several times in other fights. Conversely, the primary concern for Ulberg is cardio: whether he can sustain his style, tempo, and distance in an extended striking match or avoid getting pulled into the Prochazkaverse, gas out, and get put out in a phonebooth brawl in a 30-foot octagon. I'd expect Ulberg, like Prochazka's recent opponents, to win early minutes in this fight with low kicks and footwork, which could flip the live line and create an arbitrage opportunity. Jiri Prochazka is an extremely popular selection this week; fans are backing him to win this fight at a near 75% clip, despite the pick'em line. As a result, my market-weighted model projected Carlos Ulberg as roughly a 57% favorite (-132 implied odds) in this matchup, and I would bet his pre-fight moneyline up to -120." -@SeanZerillo
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Action Combat retweetledi
🥊 UFC 327 BEST BET
🇧🇷 JOHNNY WALKER BY KO/TKO
👇 Apply Directly To Your Betslip
bit.ly/WALKERUFC327
🗣️ "The two are both what we describe as "glass cannons," or fighters with tremendous power but limited durability. They have 27 combined fights in the UFC, and 20 of those have ended with somebody unconscious. They both have identical 6-4 UFC records in fights that end via KO, with their records inflated by 3-0 starts that have since cooled off. They're also both in their mid-30s, with Reyes being 36 while Walker is 34. Although that's not especially old for light heavyweight, it's around the point in the age curve where things like chin strength and defensive reflexes begin to fall off — but power remains intact." -@Psychoward586
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Action Combat retweetledi
🥊 UFC 327 BEST BET
🆚 PATRICIO PITBULL vs AARON PICO
📈 FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE
👇 Apply Directly To Your Betslip
bit.ly/PITBULLPICOUFC…
🗣️ "Despite the age gap, you could argue that Pitbull is not only more durable, but significantly so, and that he'll be one big punch away from a knockout for the duration of this fight. Pico remains the better – and faster – boxer, and the bigger man (2" taller, 3" reach advantage), but will look to use his wrestling to dominate the matchup given those durability concerns. And despite Pitbull's low center of gravity, I think the differential in fast-twitch explosiveness will matter most in the grappling exchanges. I do show a small edge on the fight to reach a decision (projected +113, listed +135), which I would take small to +125. Pico may fight more conservatively and focus on securing and maintaining top position to register his first UFC Win." -@SeanZerillo
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Action Combat retweetledi
🚨 Chris Padilla was the only fighter to miss weight today
There’s an interesting trend here 👇
Across 300+ tracked MMA fights, fighters who miss weight lose ~57% of the time
Gets more interesting when you filter by odds
When the fighter who didn’t miss weight is priced ~40%, they’ve historically won over 60% of the time
Line has been steady all week:
Padilla 60%
Mederos 40%
Beyond the data, stylistically this sets up well for Mederos
11-1 record, primarily a striker
Opponents have needed constant grappling to give him trouble
Padilla isn’t known for heavy wrestling and a tough weight cut could contradict his pressure style
Taking some Mederos at 40% ⏳
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Action Combat retweetledi
🥊 TAN UFC 327 Top Props #UFC327
🇳🇿 Carlos Ulberg by KO/TKO/DQ @SeanZerillo
🇧🇷 Johnny Walker by KO/TKO/DQ @Psychoward586
🔗 bit.ly/TANUFC327
Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app and use code ACTIONNETWORK. The crown is yours. @DKSportsbook
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Action Combat retweetledi
🚨 UFC 327 might be one of the greatest betting cards of all time
If you have strong reads this weekend, there’s real opportunity
6 fights are basically priced as coin flips 👇
Tatiana Suarez - 59%
Lupita Godinez - 41%
Randy Brown - 51%
Kevin Holland - 49%
Cub Swanson - 53%
Nate Landwehr - 47%
Dominick Reyes - 56%
Johnny Walker - 44%
Curtis Blaydes - 54%
Josh Hokit - 46%
Jiri Prochazka - 50%
Carlos Ulberg -50%
The market thinks all of these are razor close
Biggest favorite on the entire card is only 69% (~ -230)
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Carlos Ulberg has won 9 straight since losing his UFC debut 🔥
Will Jiri be able to stop his momentum & recapture the Light Heavyweight title? #UFC327
Jiri Prochazka -118
Carlos Ulberg -102
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Action Combat retweetledi
🥊 TAN UFC Fight Night Top Props #UFCVegas115
🆚 Ethyn Ewing vs Rafael Estevam
📈 Fight To Go The Distance @SeanZerillo
🆚 Kai Kamaka III vs Dakota Hope
📉 Under 2.5 Rounds @Psychoward586
🔗 bit.ly/TANUFC040426
Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app and use code ACTIONNETWORK. The crown is yours. @DKSportsbook
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Money Moicano is back this weekend! 🤑
Will he be able to snap his losing streak & momentum of Scottish phenom Chris Duncan? #UFCVegas115
Renato Moicano +145
Chris Duncan -180
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ALEXA GRASSO (+160) EPIC FINISH 😱
Absolutely devastating combo for the former champ
Anyone with a Grasso KO (+2500) ticket? 😳
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