Adam Small

This was a great time. We went all the way back to the early 2000s, playing trivia at the flying saucer in Nashville!

@rcdaut @abarber1 Good stuff. Appreciate the deep dive!

Ok, so imagine we watched various highlights from top players in 1980, 1995, 2010, and 2025, 15 years apart. Watching Borg and Vilas play points on clay in 1980 would look like an entirely different sport from today and in modern terms are closer to club level players today than top pros. 1995 looks significantly more modernized, and they are legitimate players at that point even by today's, but you would intuitively know Agassi and Sampras playing at that level would struggle to win games against Sinner and Alcaraz, especially on clay when Sampras can't hit a few unreturnables and hold sometimes. 2010 you would probably watch some points between Nadal and Djokovic, and then 2025 you could watch some highlights of Novak vs Sinner or Carlos, and it's hard to see exactly why the level is that much better. It's the same guy from 2010 and he's 38 years old in the latter video. And although Rafa retired, you can see that he won Roland Garros in 2005 and again in 2022, even beating Novak on the way to the title. Now let's take a step back and talk about what "peak Nadal" means. There's no moment in time that we can take Nadal's peak physicality from 2008 and his tennis iq/knowledge/experience from 2022 and combine them to form this theoretical player we'd like to see face Carlos and Jannik. You either need to go back to 2008 and take that version or the slower more tactical version in 2022. So to finally get to your question, the biggest changes from 15 years ago to now are better movement by all players (especially on hard court), much bigger serving (especially second serve), more RPMs from the field, and more pace on groundstrokes. I went back and watched some highlights of 2008 wimbledon final, universally considered in the mix of potential best matches of all time. I saw Rafa at one point hit an 82mph second serve. Most top players hit their second serves 100+ mph now. I've seen graphics of average serve speeds from various slams and that the average second serve speed now is similar to the average first serve speed in the early 2000s. That seems inconceivable given we saw Pete Sampras hitting 125mph aces in the 90s, but it's actually true for the field. I've seen other graphics (which I unfortunately cant find) that show Arthur Fils on average hitting his forehand with as many RPMs as Rafa but also 10mph faster. Players today detonate the ball. And then there is random anecdotal evidence. Casper Ruud recently said he thinks he has improved since 2022 when he was a top 5 player that made two slam finals, yet the field has improved even more and now he's outside the top 15. And then a quick note about the depth of tennis. It's very easy to look at the inconsistency from players ranked outside the top 5 and call it a weak era compared to the past, but I think it's more an indication of the strength of the top 50-100 rather than the weakness of the players ranked 4-15. We think players like David Ferrer are models of consistency because of infrequent early losses, but shit on Zverev or Medvedev for their seemingly inexplicable bad losses. I don't think it's a fair take and has too many other factors. So I think Sinner and Carlos lapping the field and each winning ~90% of matches overall while playing each other 5x a year as a sign of just how dominant they are. Now given the charitable, what if Rafa was born in 2002 and was at his peak right now, I think Rafa personifies all that is perfect for clay courts: elite mover, few errors, very hard to attack, has a very repeatable game but still has variety and is elite at net and has good hands, and has one of the best forehands of all time to end points too. I'd favor that player vs Carlos and Sinner still. But that player doesnt exist, and these guys are just far beyond anything we saw in 2008-2010.

I'm curious - and for perspective, I'm a pretty solid club player (4.5), got college recruitment opportunities, etc. Not a pro or close. I watch a lot of tennis and have for years. I guess I'm wondering what would be the biggest thing(s) that would set Sinnercaraz apart today from Nadal 18 years ago. Is it fitness and training? Tactics? Pace?

@AdamLoebSmall @abarber1 I think most fail to understand how much tennis has evolved in even the last 5 years, let alone 15-20 because of the extended dominance of the big 3. There's a temptation to equate Novak as a top 5 player in 2026 to Novak in 2008, but Novak continually added and adapted.

Yeah, ok

@rcdaut @abarber1 I guess I just don’t even understand what the point of the former discussion would be.

@abarber1 @AdamLoebSmall If the claim is "2026 Sinner/Alcaraz are favored vs 2008-10 Nadal on clay", I agree, tennis has evolved. The more charitable "imagine if Rafa were born in 2002 and was 24 years old right now and at the peak of his abilities, would he be the best on clay?" I think also yes.

@abarber1 Not buying it for a second

@AdamLoebSmall He’s probably right tbh

@FAmmiranteTFJ It’s kind of the amazing the city hasn’t had anything in 15 years.

I really hope the Knicks find a way to get it done. Give the city a championship

@RogersPicks Still early in this game, Colorado came back from just as bad the other day. But it already has that feeling like they’re mailing it in and just beat the crap out of the other team whenever they can.

Remember when the Bills could never get over the hump against the Chiefs in the playoffs then still get bounced w/o KC in? It's early, but same feeling with Carolina. They avoid Panthers and still fall on their face.

I think this is the single most important question in politics today. Can virtue and decency return? And when?

“can i start you off with an appetizer, maybe 30 tortillas?” “god no, i can’t eat that many tortillas!” “how about if cut them up into triangles, fry them in seed oil, & serve them with some salsa?” “omg that sounds delightful”.

Hell yeah. Very well deserved. 📈📈📈

@Roothlus Oh God, you’re a Mets fan

Pain. Existence is pain

This is wild

“He asked us to obscure his identity over fears of retaliation for his detective work.” - CBS national broadcast

Can’t wait for this!! espn.com/nfl/story/_/id…

I do a podcast each week talking about prediction markets news of the week with @Dan_O_Boyle of @InGameHQ fame. Trying to ramp up guests as well. If you don't suck, maybe we'll have you on. open.spotify.com/episode/4hr2mI…

@WVUFLU Does this mean you’re running for governor?

Let's Go!

at this point you need to review all the photos and videos in your camera roll because there's like a 7 percent chance that you captured footage of Vrabel and Russini in public totally by accident

The next step of FanDuel’s prediction market growth looks less dependent on CME. The sports betting giant has started market making, but not on the CME-built exchange used for FanDuel Predicts, and parent company Flutter’s CEO Peter Jackson said it might offer access to more exchanges within weeks.

@Noahpinion Really hard to talk to people

Incredible exchange here

CNBC reported that Amy Howe is out at #FanDuel after 5 yrs w the nation's top sportsbook. Flutter shares have plunged about 60% over the last yr, while rival #DraftKings is also down double digits. H/T to @contessabrewer on the scoop. Should be the lead of today's Flutter call.