Adrian Cooper

We estimate that Asia will have lost 39mn (2.4%) employments in 2023 relative to the pre-pandemic trend, with losses concentrated in EM Asia. This will dampen wage growth and render the labour market more vulnerable to future shocks: bit.ly/3Kdqawd

We think the IMF's new forecasts for 2024 are too optimistic. While the IMF sees only a modest growth slowdown in the advanced economies next year, we are more sceptical and anticipate the lagged impacts of ongoing policy tightening to weigh more heavily: bit.ly/3Qvw4gj

Economic 'decoupling' of China from the west is starting to gather pace. It's yet to become globally widespread on the trade side but is increasingly evident in relations with the US. FDI trends suggest decoupling will be more visible in the coming years: bit.ly/43JKuMH

We expect eurozone industry to remain in a mild recession in H2 2023. Several cyclical and structural headwinds have been a drag on eurozone industry recently, while offsetting tailwinds are mostly structural in nature so their impact will be more gradual: bit.ly/3OwQUdN

In our view, consensus forecasts are too optimistic in the growth they imply over the rest of 2023 in Asia. We think there is more weakness on the external side and we don't think domestic demand will provide much offset, given damaged balance sheets: bit.ly/44Hg6Dv

Our 250 economists have updated our monthly forecasts. We've upgraded our 2023 world GDP growth forecast to 2.4% from 2.2%. But we expect some payback next year so have cut our 2024 forecast to just 2% as the impact of ongoing policy tightening intensifies bit.ly/3NOWJSe

Our nowcasting models show eurozone growth momentum is stalling as still-high inflation & tight monetary policy weigh on activity. We expect the lacklustre growth to persist for the rest of 2023 – we could see stagnation or even quarterly GDP contractions: bit.ly/46JEBlk

The UK banking sector is entering a period of slow-burn stress from a good starting position. Banks are well-capitalised and lenders enjoy a relatively sticky deposit base. Asset quality remains the biggest source of risk, with CRE a key area of concern: bit.ly/3pLpjvK

Our US Business Cycle Indicator was little changed between April and May. We lean on the BCI to gauge the timing of the recession. While a lot of momentum has been lost in the past year, the economy isn’t teetering on the edge of a recession yet: bit.ly/3pGSj7M

This morning's UK labour market data confirmed the story flagged by our proprietary sentiment data developed with Penta. Momentum in wage growth is much stronger than the MPC expected. This will pile on the pressure for another 50bps rate hike in August: bit.ly/3O7YD1D

Eurozone house prices will continue to slide through 2023. Moreover, while the cumulative 2.5% decline to Q1 2023 was driven by Germany, we think price falls will become broader. Marginal price growth is expected in 2024, with a larger pickup in 2025: bit.ly/43n1XKu

Momentum in UK wage growth is much stronger than the MPC thinks, according to our proprietary sentiment data developed with Penta. When the official data catches up to our timelier indicators, this will pile more pressure on the MPC to tighten policy: bit.ly/3OgLeo9

We think that a dissaving-driven consumption boom is unlikely to happen in Japan. Excess savings accumulated during the pandemic is smaller than generally thought, and the withdrawal of savings will be limited going forward: bit.ly/3JMhRae

We believe most measures of pandemic excess savings vastly overstate the support they could provide to consumer spending in Canada. We find households hold just over C$200bn (7.3% of GDP) in extra savings and only C$75bn in liquid cash: bit.ly/3JLpOwK

The actions of EM central banks suggest that earlier and more aggressive hikes by AE central banks would have brought forward the turning point in inflation. We believe earlier tightening would have resulted in significantly less policy uncertainty today: bit.ly/3pv9Wrg

Our US national Housing Affordability Index declined in Q2, marking a slight improvement in affordability. Affordability improved in most regions, with metros on the coasts faring better than those in the middle of the country: bit.ly/3Xy9k0z

Private wealth has strongly risen across the world since 1980, and we predict this rise to continue through to 2050, with important implications for asset returns, international capital flows, and inequality: bit.ly/44tBCLW

The recent surge in mortgage rates has left UK house prices 30% overvalued according to our Housing Affordability Index. We expect transactions will stay very low & prices will fall 13% PTT. The downturn will be more slow puncture than a sudden sharp drop bit.ly/44r08gK

Though US financial conditions indices have eased, they don't fully capture the ongoing rapid tightening in bank lending standards. Bank loans to firms are contracting, which will be a drag on the economy and will keep the odds of a recession elevated: bit.ly/3pnBY7X

Fears of a permanent hit to eurozone labour supply from the pandemic have not materialised, but the post-pandemic resurgence will soon end as temporary supporting factors reverse and unfavourable demographic headwinds become more prescient: bit.ly/3r4Tiiq