Agio Ratings

January 2026 Risk Briefing December looked less like a crypto cycle and more like a risk reset. • 46 CEXs we track saw rising risk • Industry-average 1Y PD higher at 12% • Treasury exposure amplified downside • Regulatory signals turned modestly constructive

Stablecoin credit risk is now a high-demand use case as institutions seek forward-looking, probabilistic analysis beyond attestations. Full report link in the comments.

We’ve published our first independent credit risk assessment of @circle . Result: A-equivalent credit quality, with a 0.11% 12-month probability of default and 0.02% expected loss.

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Our CEO @aptsousa is featured in the report with a perspective on how institutions can assess risk in the digital asset era. Link in replies. 👇

The UK Digital Assets Report 2025 is out, and Agio Ratings has been highlighted as one of the UK's most exciting early-stage digital asset companies. @AlbionVC analyzed 1,400 digital asset startups and found a market entering a new stage of maturity, with £2.7bn raised

We’re partnering with @Webacy’s DD.xyz to level up risk intelligence. Now we can quickly surface malicious transactions and emerging threats, bringing sharper, faster counterparty risk insights to our users. #CryptoSecurity #RiskIntelligence #Onchainrisk

We're a sponsor at #RiskLiveNA 2025! Our CEO will join leaders from @FalconXGlobal , @FireblocksHQ & Vanderbilt Law to discuss: GENIUS Act & interagency standards OCC guidance & 3rd party risk Custody, tax & reporting rules shaping digital assets #riskmanagement #CRO

What’s the risk outlook this month? ✔️ 45 of 48 rated CEXs strengthened ✔️ Avg 1Y PD fell to 8.90% LBank, Gate.io & Probit weakened on volatility, reduced activity & weaker flows 👉 Sign up for our monthly risk briefing at agioratings.io

Highlights from this month's risk briefing: ↔ Default risk for most exchanges declined slightly by the end of August 🤔 One exchange saw a jump in their default risk due to low trading volumes 🎯 August was a record month for on-chain anomalies

Knowing your counterparty's default risk is critical to keeping PRR under control. Agio Ratings models default probabilities for 30+ exchanges using on-chain/off-chain data. Book a demo with us to learn more: #book-a-demo" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">agioratings.io/#book-a-demo

We modeled a USD $50M position affected by a counterparty default and found that only 22% of the loss was due to variation margin. The remaining 78% was attributed to position replication costs.

Many crypto asset managers turn to tripartite agreements to manage exchange risk. Too many gloss over the risk that these agreements can't mitigate: Position Replication Risk (PRR)🧵👇

Going to #DigitAssets in London? Book a demo with our CEO @aptsousa to see Agio Ratings' risk platform in action

🔗 For anyone managing or investing in crypto assets, understanding these risk dynamics is crucial. Our upcoming Portfolio Loss Simulator will aid in making informed decisions to navigate a volatile market landscape #CryptoTools

💡 With a 3.0 multiplier, the chance of multiple defaults more than doubles to 5%! While many firms can handle one default, few can weather multiple failing counterparties. Managing this risk is exactly why we started Agio #CryptoMarkets

🚨 Breaking down credit loss distribution in crypto: When Voyager defaulted in 2022 after lending to 3AC, it marked a major instance of default correlation in the industry. The event signaled a shift from the usual fraud-related risks to trading and operating losses #CryptoRisk