@EvanWritesOnX UAE quit OPEC because the master USA/Israel told it to in return for some promises(USD line of credit, help with reconstruction and prioritized defense if war with Iran breaks again).
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Aj
17 posts
The UAE just quit OPEC today and the official reason is a lie.
UAE says it left because the GCC failed to protect it during the recent Iran war.
That is the convenient story for the region.
The real reason is simpler and far bigger.
The UAE has spent years preparing to break free from the cartel's production quotas.
It built new oil capacity, launched its own crude benchmark, expanded ADNOC's trading arm, listed energy assets on markets, and locked in direct deals with Asian buyers.
None of those moves fit a country planning to stay loyal to Saudi-led discipline.
The timing was perfect.
The April 7 ceasefire gave a clean diplomatic window.
Trump is back in the White House and hates OPEC.
The UAE joined BRICS in 2024 and now operates as a true hinge state, balancing ties with everyone from China to Israel without picking sides.
All this breaks OPEC+ for good.
Saudi Arabia can either match the UAE's surge and crash prices, wrecking its own Vision 2030 plans, or cut deeper and watch market share vanish.
Either way, the old coordination that kept prices high is finished. Smaller members will follow. Russia loses leverage. Iran actually wins from the softer price floor.
The biggest winner is the UAE itself.
It gains full control of its oil weapon, faster cash from reserves, and even more strategic freedom. Asian buyers get cheaper barrels. Trump gets the cheap-energy headline he loves.
Saudi Arabia takes the heaviest hit. But this was pre-agreed between Saudi and UAE as part of their broader regional agreements and carve ups.
The UAE has quietly outgrown the old Saudi-centric order, and the Iran excuse made the break politically safe.
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@AcebravoSi90423 @EvanWritesOnX You saying that the size and the population doesn’t matter when it comes to geopolitics is a clear sign that you don’t know how things work.
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@AjSh2018 @EvanWritesOnX Size and population don't do squat. Hopefully now they learned their lesson and start becoming a good peaceful player in the region, period.
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The time for Iran to seize undisputed dominance in the Middle East,
was before it decapitated its own proxy network.
Before it let Nasrallah get killed and watched Hezbollah get hollowed out.
Before it surrendered the Shia axis it spent forty years and hundreds of billions of dollars building across Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon.
That moment has passed.
The instruments of regional dominance are gone.
For a trade-off.
This is not a war of independence. Wars of independence are fought by actors expanding their power,
not contracting it.
What you're watching is the final act of a managed trade-off that Iran's pragmatist faction has been executing since well before the first strike landed on February 28.
The resistance axis was never the goal.
It was always the cover, the negotiating pressure, the thing you give up in exchange for what you actually need: state survival, sanctions relief, and regime change on your own terms rather than someone else's.
The GCC strikes were not Iran demonstrating dominance.
They were Iran playing its last remaining leverage card before sitting down to negotiate.
You don't strike all six Gulf states simultaneously unless you are trying to establish a bargaining floor, not win a war.
If Iran wanted to fight for regional dominance, it would have targeted the assets that matter, not staged the most theatrical single-day operation in the conflict's history.
And look at what Iran is actually negotiating for.
Not regional leadership.
Not a rebuilt Shia axis.
Not reconstruction of Hezbollah or the Quds Force's external networks.
Iran is negotiating for a permanent end to the war, full sanctions relief, and reconstruction compensation.
It is demanding that the world recognize its sovereignty over Hormuz, not as a weapon of regional dominance but as a legal framework that gives it a face-saving exit from having closed it in the first place.
These are the demands of a state that wants to survive and recover, not a state positioning itself as the undisputed force in anything.
What Iran is purchasing with this war is not dominance. It is a trade-off for a seat at the table it was locked out of for four decades. And the US has accepted it.
All the major players have.
The day will come when Iran and Israel normalize.
I said this late 2024.
The resistance narrative will be quietly retired, replaced by the language of pragmatic sovereignty and regional integration.
The same Islamic Republic that spent forty-five years chanting death to Israel will sign a framework with it.
Alon Mizrahi@alon_mizrahi
Save it for later: Iran will survive this to become the undisputed dominant force in West Asia. It is their war of independence, and they will win
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@EvanWritesOnX Iran doesn’t want to become a bully or an annoying force. Hezbollah and other proxies will be out into a hibernation mode ready to be awakened when needed.
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@EvanWritesOnX In spite of all the sanctions, Iran has managed to become very advanced Militarily and technologically. Iran is willing to integrate into the economic growth that will befall on the gulf.
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@EvanWritesOnX Those deals with strings like human rights? Those same countries have huge defense deals with Israel- the country that doesn’t care about human rights. Ukraine makes cheap drone interceptors and that is what KSA wants hence the deal.
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Read between the lines.
Ukraine does not have an independent defense industrial base that Saudi Arabia needs.
Ukraine's defense capabilities right now are almost entirely a function of what NATO countries, primarily the US and Europe, have poured into it.
The weapons Ukraine manufactures domestically, like drones and certain missile systems, are useful but they are not what Saudi Arabia is after in a strategic defense agreement.
What Ukraine does have is relationships, technology transfer pipelines, and an entry point into European defense procurement networks that Saudi Arabia cannot easily access by going directly
to, say,
France or Germany. Because those deals come with political strings attached around human rights, Yemen, and so on.
So when MBS signs a defense agreement with Ukraine, what he is actually doing in structural terms is opening a side door into the European and broader Western MIC without going through the US,
and in effect, isolating it.
That is the move.
Like I have been saying.
This Iran "war" is the recalibration door the US has opened for new contracts.
But for others.
Not for itself.
Mykhailo Rohoza@MykhailoRohoza
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, on behalf of Donald Trump, expressed regret that the Saudi authorities signed defense agreements with Ukraine without consulting the United States, which had been Saudi Arabia’s main ally. In response, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman noted that the U.S. had failed to fully protect the Kingdom from Iranian strikes, and therefore Saudi Arabia made a decision that could quickly strengthen its defense capabilities. The Crown Prince also stated that his country will continue to be guided by its own national interests when making decisions regarding its defense. This was a slap in the face to Trump from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in response to Trump’s crude and scandalous public statement that “…now let the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia kiss my ass and be polite to me from now on.” Thus, Trump’s reckless and irresponsible remarks have effectively put U.S.–Saudi relations on pause. The Saudi Crown Prince proved to be more diplomatic than the American president and, notably, did not respond to Rubio by saying that Trump should “kiss my ass” and behave politely toward him in the future 😉
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@EvanWritesOnX People did live in the buildings that were attacked in Iran.
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This is why I gave up.
I’ve said everything Ive needed to,
explained everything in depth,
and people still reacting to headlines, so desperate for ww3 like they have nothing going for their miserable lives.
I’ve disengaged.
Enjoy the scripted show.
Morgan@MorganC000
I honestly feel like I could go strike by strike, like an ambulance chaser. I could pull the flight data showing U.S. aircraft overhead at the time. I could show that the buildings were already distressed assets marked for demolition under urban redevelopment plans. I could show that nobody was living in them- and hadn’t been for several years. I could use Israeli government maps and planning records to point to the exact areas already slated for clearance. I could even pull the flight data from Operation Juniper Oak, where U.S. and Israeli forces ran coordinated drills, and lay it alongside this operation to show the same patterns, the same structure, and the same level of pre-planning. And even after laying all of that out, people still would not clue in. That is the fucking problem.
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@EvanWritesOnX Iran is nore aligned with China and Russia. China and Russia have different goals than the GCC.
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@EvanWritesOnX They will not become best friends. Yes, Iran will join and will support the development of ME. But that doesn’t mae them best friends. Most of the GCC countries are still tied to west and the US. They have a lot invested in the west and the US.
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@EvanWritesOnX Pakistan has no option but to side with KSA. KSA will side with the US. US does what US does for the corporations. KSA and othet GCC countries are already controlled by the US which is controlled by the corporations (Financial Elites).
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Pakistan will be the gun for hire in the new security apparatus that’s emerging as a consequence of bloc / multipolar realignment.
Pakistan’s position in the emerging Middle East is actually paradoxical.
It is simultaneously indispensable and disposable.
A state with genuine geographic, demographic, and military assets that has consistently failed to convert them into sovereign leverage, defaulting instead into a rotating dependency on competing patrons whose interests it services at fiscal and strategic cost to its own population.
Remember that Pakistan built its Gulf relationship substantially on being a Sunni Muslim military partner available for Saudi security needs;
a demographic reservoir of labour remittances and a potential military backstop against Iranian pressure.
If the Saudi–Iran axis moves from managed hostility toward functional coexistence,
which is happening before our eyes,
then the the strategic premium Pakistan extracted from its sectarian alignment role declines materially.
Another leverage lost.
Simultaneously,
Pakistan’s China dependency through CPEC and broader debt support is deepening at precisely the moment that China is also the primary broker of the GCC–Iran normalisation and the architect of a regional order that has less need for Pakistan as a proxy and more interest in Pakistan as a corridor.
The distinction is Pakistan’s future by the way.
A corridor is infrastructure.
A proxy has agency.
Pakistan is being repositioned/repurposed from the latter toward the former, and its political-military elite has not yet processed what this means for sovereign autonomy.
bashii@bforbashi
@EvanWritesOnX @AMA666k @UsernamUntitled @nourah_sarah_ Can you put him on mute and talk about Pakistan's role, pls?
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@EvanWritesOnX No. You can not be a good leader and corrupt at the same time. A same individual can be good and corrupt at different times.
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Correct.
And you can be an exceptionally good leader,
and corrupt at the same time.
The two often coexist.
ALB@Adela_L_B
@el23280 @EvanWritesOnX Is there an elite anywhere in the world that is not corrupt?
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@Megatron_ron Fast friends? How? These are just statements to calm things down.
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JUST IN:
🇶🇦🇮🇷 Qatar’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majed al-Ansari announced Qatar is seeking good relations with Iran:
“Iran has been here for millennia. Nobody is going anywhere.
Total annihilation is not an option.
No people or country will disappear from existence by the wish or whim of any political actor.
We will live next to each other. We will be neighbors for the future of humankind, and we have to find ways of living next to each other.
We will have to find a way past this. This is a very difficult moment, but we will find our way out of it.”
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@EvanWritesOnX BTW what have you been right about? You haven’t been right about anything. You are just trying give the reality a different spin and some people believe you because it makes them feel better. The reality is harsh and people need better lies to make them feel better. That’s You.
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@EvanWritesOnX Why isn’t GCC taking these peace initiatives? Why the US government?
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@EvanWritesOnX Evan is in the business of selling garbage for gold. It is not good for Palestine or the people of Palestine. People like Evan are there to tell you; No, it not shit, yes it looks like shit, stinks like shit but it is pure gold and it is good for Middle east and Palestine.
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@EvanWritesOnX Evan, could you please explain how UAE cooperation and investment in Israel is bad for Israel and good for the Palestinians?
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This shouldn’t surprise anyone if you’ve followed me long enough.
I’ve said many times,
the UAE is first to market when it comes to the dismantling of Israel.
And they don’t care how the Ummah feels about their approach.
They want to be the ones holding Israel’s hand to the grave.
Roshan M Salih@RmSalih
The UAE deputy PM met with Netanyahu while he was in New York. I repeat: The UAE leadership are traitors to the Ummah.
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@EvanWritesOnX The things you say are just laughable. Dismantling Israel? How? Oh yeah it is a secret geopolitical analysis only you and a few others understand. The peace plan again is mostly in favor of Israel. Israel is getting what it wants from the richest country in the world
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