Alba Puerro
36.9K posts
@Albitamix
Échame a los lobos y volveré liderando la manada Pasión por la Bolsa #Trading con Ondas de Wolfe | Directora https://t.co/qyTiTTCjWS | En @negocios_TV🎙️🧡₿
Por favor denunciad este perfil: Álba Trades @Puerroweb
💥 "Meta va a quemar toda la caja por la Inteligencia Artificial". 📊 El inversor Antonio Cádiz analiza la factura millonaria del CAPEX en las Big Tech, la caída histórica de Hermès y joyas ocultas de robótica médica en Europa.
In this most recent FREE study, I have examined Warsh's today's pre-written statement using the methods of modern informal logic formalization, to uncover the hidden contents within. There were a few, and they are quite severe. ☝️The entire regime has changed. There are new rules of the game. Warsh has replaced the conditions for a rate cut from objective, measurable economic indicators to subjective, non-measurable factors, defined exclusively by him. The era of predictable, step-by-step central bank communication has ended. The market must from now on blindly feel out, at its own expense, where the actual pain threshold of the Fed lies. This, together with the abolition of forward guidance, has created a well-designed market uncertainty, in order to keep the long-end bond yields high, while the central bank base rate stagnates. Since they are primarily playing the vol-of-vol, the long-end yields will grow faster, than the officially reported inflation, which is a passive QT. (Earlier, as I also wrote, a stealth QE was in effect. That has ended today, and Warsh stated this between the lines.) Additionally, he clusters the equity vol around the data release events as well. Why are they doing this? Because, the tech-sector is insensitive to the short-term rates, which the Fed can manage. Since the official base rate has become ineffective against the tech giants, the Fed's only remaining weapon is, to drastically drive up the long-term bond yields by unleashing uncertainty, and through this to cool down the system. The only problem with this is, that small and medium enterprises, mortgage holders, and the manufacturing industry will feel it bloody seriously, if the 10- and 30-year Treasury yields skyrocket, because the pricing of their loans is tied to this. And thus the companies will stop investments and hiring, as well as start to lay off workforce. Not right now, but soon. And Warsh has verbally abolished the employment mandate... According to my calculations, the bond yields driven up by uncertainty will push the average companies and the labor market into recession sooner, than they could meaningfully cool down the AI investment fever, which will be a trap for the Fed. From now on, therefore, the market must no longer focus on inflation, but rather on that, when and how hard the labor market cracks under the weight of the persistently high yield curve. ...And the average man knows nothing about the market, long-end yields, bond volatility and the credit channels etc. He only sees, that Trump does not raise interest rates, and everything is fine... #FOMC #stockmarket #Warsh $TLT $SPX $VIX $NDX $NQ $NQ_F $VVIX #QT
Esta es la clave para hoy. Wall Street sigue en mínimos y eso que el #Dollar_Index lleva aquí sin romper al alza y presionar más a la baja un tiempo... A las 20:00 FOMC y rueda de prensa 20:30 #Bolsa #volatilidad #Warsh
