

Statler77
17.5K posts











🇺🇸🇮🇷 From Flightradar, a few hours ago: More than two dozen Air Force tankers flying across the region, from Israel to east of Oman. We’ve seen significant American aircraft movement before the start of the war and during major escalations in the conflict prior to the ceasefire. Of course, this is not necessarily indicative of anything happening in the coming hours or even days. But these aircraft aren't flying such patterns just for show. Will update as usual.





🇮🇷🇺🇸 Q: "Why Iran doesn’t back down when America is a superpower" Iran's FM spokesperson Baghaei: "We are a superpower too"



🇷🇺🇺🇦 "Russia would prefer to achieve its goals in Ukraine through a peace agreement, but if Kyiv is not inclined to do so, it will achieve this through the Special Military Operation" — Russia's Press Secretary, Peskov, highlighting the "unchanged objectives": demilitarization, denazification & ensuring Russia's security against NATO expansion


🇺🇦🇪🇺🇦🇲 "Strong support for Ukraine must continue" — Zelensky is there to ensure that money keeps flowing to Kiev "Every support package MATTERS" "We offer a contribution to Europe's defense, our drone deals, they bring countries together"



Iran's army just declared it officially. "No ship, friend or foe, will pass the Strait of Hormuz without the permission of our forces." @POTUS Trump's response: Project Freedom. Read the sequence carefully before you decide who is winning. 🧵 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝟯 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗮𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗳𝗼𝗿. The ceasefire was an OPERATIONAL PAUSE. Both sides used it identically. US: rotated carrier groups, completed battle space re-assessments, pre-positioned 5,000 Marines, wrote Kharg Island seizure plans, collected SIGINT on Iran's new command structure, ran a narrative operation making Iran appear to be the obstacle to peace. Iran: hardened nuclear sites, dug out missile cities, routed $45 billion in trade through Gwadar, built Hormuz toll architecture into parliamentary law, had its Supreme Leader declare a new legal framework for the strait. Neither side used it for peace. 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗷𝗲𝗰𝘁 𝗙𝗿𝗲𝗲𝗱𝗼𝗺 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵𝗶𝘁𝗲𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲. Trump told Congress hostilities terminated April 29. He cannot announce a new military operation without triggering the War Powers authorization he just legally escaped. So he called it "humanitarian mission". Two US officials confirmed the Navy will not actually escort vessels. They will be "in the vicinity." The announcement said escort. The operation is proximity. Iran has declared no ship passes without permission. Any US vessel in the vicinity of ships transiting without Iranian authorization is by definition a violation of that declaration. The ceasefire violation Iran pre-announced becomes the justification for retaliation Trump pre-authorized with "will unfortunately have to be dealt with forcefully." A struck vessel. An oil spill in an enclosed sea that cannot flush. Marine ecosystem destroyed for a generation. Trump mandates retaliation. The Marines are pre-positioned. The plans are written. Project Freedom is the beginning of the NEXT kinetic phase dressed as a rescue mission. 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲𝘀 𝗻𝗲𝘅𝘁. If regime cohesion holds and the IRGC maintains control of the population, the US and Israel will be confronted with the need to impose their will with escalated means, typically requiring ground troops. Trump said May 3 he may consider resuming strikes. Rome talks are scheduled May 23. If they fail, the next phase begins. The Marines are pre-positioned. The Kharg Island and Abu Musa Island plans are written. The Project Freedom incident architecture is now active in the strait. The war did not terminate on April 29. It resumed on May 3 with a different name. Bookmark this. If this gave you signal worth keeping, like retweet and pls consider following me 🙏🙏 @aj_geo_analysis



🇺🇸🇮🇷🚨 Following Trump's announcement of "Project Freedom," promising to "safely guide" stranded vessels in Hormuz and vowing to "interfere by force" if any interceptions occur... A navy vessel was reportedly struck by "unknown projectiles" some nautical miles north of the UAE. Still have all the cards?


@pati_marins64 🙄 Well, the only way out of this crisis... is to declare him insane. 🤨Bibi Netanyahu is already in a locked ward. And you're still sitting in the waiting room. Well, I'm sitting here because the doors don't have handles.




🇺🇸🇮🇷 I don't know guys, Trump seems pretty confident he's got "all the cards."











