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Chad Lin
247 posts

Chad Lin
@AlgoChadLin
Stock investor & forex/crypto algo trader | 10-bagger Hunter | Believer in open society & free markets
Hong Kong Katılım Ocak 2010
145 Takip Edilen268 Takipçiler

Hegseth, the Secretary of Defense, stated that the U.S. "is not looking for a long war," while Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested lifting sanctions on 140 million barrels of Iranian crude currently held at sea.
As soon as the war panic eased, Brent crude plummeted from $119.13 to $105, yet gold and stocks failed to stage a strong rebound.
This is because the market's focus has shifted beyond just the end of the war. People are now worried about a potential comeback of inflation and rate hikes.
The Fed won't cut rates for the rest of the year.
#trading #investing #investment #stockmarket #stock #oil #oilprices #gold

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@Quantyraai @realDonaldTrump Yes, now it looks more like an actual positioning shift. Inflation is already a reality, and it could rise back above 3.5% by April.
Sentiment moves ahead of fundamentals. It starts with emotion, then the narrative gets confirmed, and the market prices in the expectation.
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@AlgoChadLin @realDonaldTrump Makes sense from a narrative perspective — but do you think the move is more driven by actual positioning shifts rather than just geopolitical expectations? Feels like a lot of these moves get explained after the fact, while positioning was already leaning that way.
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Why has crude oil climbed back above $102?
Iran had sought talks with @realDonaldTrump , but he showed no interest. In other words, the diplomatic window between the U.S. and Iran is now completely shut.
However, the market has already started to price in a prolonged war scenario.
That’s why, even though oil is rising, it hasn’t broken above previous highs. And although equities are falling, they haven’t dropped below prior lows.
#trading #crudeoil #oilprices #stocks #StockMarket

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Two major bombshells hit the market.
1⃣ The U.S. PPI came in at 3.4, way above the expected 2.9.
2⃣ The Fed held the rate.
Inflation is back, and the situation in Iran will make the upcoming data look worse.
Since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is driving up oil prices, inflation is inevitable. Do not expect any rate cuts this year. Looking ahead, commodities, especially energy, still offer opportunities. As for gold, it remains a classic inflation hedge and is still worth watching closely.
#FedRates #trading #investing #investment #StockMarket

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Will the Fed Be Unable to Cut Rates?
Oil prices are rising again.
Iran attacked 2 (or 3?) ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S. military did not escort them.
If oil stays this expensive, could inflation surge again?
The economic environment today is very different from 2022.
The rise of AI has disrupted the labor market, contributing to higher unemployment and declining savings in the United States. If surging oil prices significantly drag down economic growth, the Fed may not turn hawkish. Instead, it could cut rates aggressively in an attempt to support the economy.
#trading #usiranwar #IranWar #oil #oilprice

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@peoples_vox Yes, you're right.
1. The problem is the strait, but I believe the US Army can control the situation.
2. The big surge of oil on Monday is not only because of the strait but also because Israel bombed Iran's oil infrastructure.
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Crude oil is undoubtedly the "liquid gold."
It's a better wealth-generating engine than gold is.
Crude oil has been the star of the show, with prices surging past $100.
👇👇👇How to trade crude oil?
👇👇👇Read more
#OilMarket #oilprice #crudeoil #trading #tradingtips #TradingStrategies

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2. The RSI Trading Strategy
If you want to trade like a tycoon, stop chasing the highs. The most profitable secret in oil trading isn't going long.
Just SHORT it.
We can’t always predict when a conflict will break out, but we do know that whenever oil prices get too high, they eventually crash back.
1⃣Use the RSI (Relative Strength Index) on the daily chart.
2⃣When the RSI crosses above 70, the market is officially overbought.
3⃣This is your cue to look for shorting opportunities.
Be patient. Just wait, and go short.

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1. Supply and Demand
Global supply suffers when geopolitical tensions escalate, such as the US-Iran war. Oil price surges.
However, Iran is not the only supplier of oil. The world has plenty of "backup" suppliers, such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, Canada, or Kuwait.
And you would never expect who the world's largest oil producer is.
It is the UNITED STATES!
This makes it much harder for oil to stay at record highs for long.

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Now:
$Gold: -1.87%
S&P 500 futures: -1.94%
$Nasdaq futures: -2.34%
$Nikkei 225: -4.29%
$BTC sank below $67,000.
You can blame Israel.
On Saturday, Israel carried out airstrikes on 30 Iranian fuel depots. The scale of the attack far exceeded what the U.S. expected. The first reaction from the U.S. was simply, "WTF."
Large-scale explosions at fuel depots could quickly push up energy prices, which would seriously hurt the global economy. It is no surprise that Japan’s stock market, which is highly dependent on imported energy, suffered the biggest drop.
The short-term energy shock is already a reality, but over the long run, never underestimate the strength of quality assets. Once war-driven panic fades, stocks and gold could rebound very quickly.
#IranIsraelUSWar #USIranWar #USIranConflict #trading #GOLD #Stock




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@Maplo_22 I am currently studying SMC (Smart Money Concept) and the footprint charts.
In my view, footprint is the only logical method for intraday trading. Other technical indicators are essentially rearview mirrors.
I will share some of my learning insights about footprint charts on X.
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Remember,
for any high quality asset, always
BUY THE DIP.
#Stock #stockmarketcrash #StockMarket #investing #trading

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How to analyze #forex?
In fact, forex is even simpler than #stocks. You do not need to study complex products or technology or financial sheets.
You only need to remember four letters.
PEIT
👇👇👇Let’s break them down.
#ForexTrader #ForexMarket #forexstrategy #trading #TradingTips

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