Algovid

@Polymarket just added $BNB daily prediction market, more hourly and 15-minute markets coming maybe?

Our last post discusses the technical details of running arbitrage in prediction markets - risks, technologies and the like. choosing a handful who share for access~

Happy ATH day to those who celebrate it!

@BeatzXBT Would look into doing it metalic for sure!

Jim Simons inspired us all to believe that with grit, determination, and a dash of innate talent, it's possible for anyone to live to 86 years old while maintaining a 40 a day chain smoking habit. RIP to a real one.

@cardosofede @PtrPomorski @_hummingbot Exactly, some combination of long + short term makes the most sense to me. There are probably more clever approaches out there though.

@AlgoTradevid @PtrPomorski @_hummingbot Great, I was thinking to use the volatility as the transition covariance, that’s what you mean?

Last week I discussed with @PtrPomorski about creating a @_hummingbot strategy using the Kalman Filter. I did some research and I created this page to experiment

@ZenomTrader Dms closed

Crypto trading can be incredibly lucrative, even with simple strategies! A basic breakout approach can vastly outperform the S&P 500. Here's how it works: • Buy when price breaks above the 200 EMA for X bars • Bear markets are challenging, but won't blow up your account if you are trading on higher timeframes • Stay in the market 24/7 to catch the full bull run The key is surviving bears to thrive in bulls! Have you tried breakout strategies before? Share your insights & let's learn how to optimize this together!

@TradetroniX CPO (Conditional portfolio optimization) by E. Chang 100% Train a machine learning model on different parameters for the strategy, each day pick those parameters that have the highest predicted sharpe/ whatever. Interesting stuff.

How can one optimize a systematic trading strategy for different market environments without overfitting?

@GoshawkTrades Ou nice, you ever ventured into synthetic pairs trading with grid?

Grid strategies have their flaws, But they're still a favorite of mine to look into. This is by far one of the best intro videos on them: youtube.com/watch?v=3Dy4iz…

"Trended Momentum": "A stock with a clearer price path signals a clearer continuation trend compared to those with erratic, volatile paths... A distinct price trend significantly enhances the momentum strategy." papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

@wiltonhotz Amazing stuff man, nice to see you go! There is 99% chance it will lead nowhere but the skills stay with you! Keep it up! About the question: well, what if you hide the last 30% of the data - does the effect stay the same? If yes then maybe try live testing and see. Good job

@Giovann35084111 You are mixing scarcity in natural language and scarcity as a term in economics. That's like saying building space in Manhattan is not scarce resource because there is always some property listed. I get why you don't want to admit BTC is unfair for those who come later, but...

#BTC I would like from anybody an example of BTC being scarce. Can you tell me in the past 15 years when it was scarce??? 1) It was never scarce because it always met the demands of willing buyers 2) If 1) is true where the value was coming from?

I've made close to 175% net return on my crypto portfolio since 2023. I didn't use leverage or day-traded. Just a pure old swing momentum system on a weekly timeframe. Below is my plan going forward: 🧵

@adeleians Congrats!

🤖 $NQ_F This is an algorithm I use for #propfirms, dedicated to NQ, ideal for accounts challenges of 50k or higher. This algorithm didn't perform its best in February, ending with very few profits. We've started March in the negative, but I'm confident it'll end up with few profits again by the month's end. Let's keep pushing🏌️‍♂️

@Giovann35084111 Why does it show btc price as 59k when it is 62k?

#Bitcoin it never came so close or crossed the Power Law trending line before the halving. Just an observation. BTC is still slightly undervalued or where it should be according to the Power Law.

@MikoGenno Check out how would the rainbow chart looked for btc if you made the predictions when the market cap was 4B (as is KAS now) and compare it to the chart today, it's interesting. Not huge difference but for example the expected fair price fot today would be ~100k.

@AlgoTradevid I disagree. Imagine if bitcoin broke down out of the lower powerlaw channel... I think the same about Kas

#Kaspa will not follow the 4 year cycle. The upper rainbow band allows for a maximum bull market price of $3.88 in December 2025 - where #Btc historically peaks. 16 months later in April 2027 the lower rainbow band crosses $3.88 - meaning $Kas will set new ATHs in early 2027. (The line is horizontal, it looks bent due to an optical illusion)

@MikoGenno I think power law holds, but its parameters might still change a bit (we are still in first 2 years). Same as it did for BTC

@AlgoTradevid A larger cycle would seem to break the power law... which would be very bad