🐢ADH🐢
486 posts

🐢ADH🐢
@AllDayHolds
🐢 🐢 CONTEXT & TIMING #TWPP #TraderMaturity #Twittertheory 🐢🐢

Fact - Lower time frame trends need to end before higher time frame trends can continue.



The market is structured in a way to fill orders properly. There is rarely anything that gets “out of whack.” Think of it as a program with given parameters, and if so, no matter the size, thin or thick, the new orders coming in will fit within the structure of the program.

Still not even one specific example to justify “XYZ should not move like that.” Point on a chart where you were “screwed” because of the additional brokerages and chat rooms eroding your edge. If it occurred, Shirley you must know exactly when it did so…

What changes have occurred to justify a “markets are different” or “tough time to be a short seller” 🤔



@EvilShorting @kroyrunner89 @AllDayHolds There´s pretty much always been tough cycles on lowfloat gappers, whether they last days, weeks or a month or 2 .. Early 2020 was tough for obvious reason and long strong cycle for gappers but great for FRD, 2021 was straight forward etc...

The main change is that you used to make money, but now you're either not making any or losing money doing the same thing. In HTB short selling, it probably has something to do with tail risks that people prefer to ignore in their backtests or memories. All the HTB stars you see here are just the lucky ones who have survived all those black swans so far many others haven’t.

What do you mean in play? Holding largest time frame uptrend. Then breaks out in thin volume with NO lower time frame trend ending. It can go as high as it wants. 100% or whatever, it’s trending. Midday halts and gaps aren’t anything new.

can’t say for sure, but I don’t think stocks in play RANDOMLY got halted mid session and then open up after hours of 1000% liquidating the shorts in them before 2024? $PGHL I think the landscape for small caps has changed greatly happy to have that discussion either way.

@AllDayHolds What about dropping an offering at 3$ at 4am and run it to 120 in 5 minutes?

The argument I see the most is that there are more brokers that offer locates, more chat rooms and attention on the short side than 5-10 years ago, and this leads to far more crowding on the short side and tougher action. I think perhaps with low floats there could be some truth here, but imo larger cap pigs are as predictable as ever

Unless scaling in is the trigger, there are usually PARTS to the development of a trigger. This means there’s an understanding of the STAGE in which the current price is in relation to the trigger developing and ultimately turning an unknown into a known at time of trigger.

If a trader asks me to help with a failed trade, I ask him/her why the trade was taken. If the first response is “it was good risk reward” I say “Good, then keep taking it.” If that’s a reason, then anything under the sun can work and give great R:R.

