阿瓦隆

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当老虎机胜率大于 50% 的时候，就变成了印钞机。Vibe coding 也是一样的道理

Hyperliquid is the only Venue to trade PreIPO Markets: OpenAI, SpaceX Commodities: NATGAS, USOIL, Gold 24/7 On Chain. TradFi is sidelined on the Weekend. Hyperliquid Users aren't. On days like today where OIL jumps 10$ this is a game changer.

In short: no. I was a wall st market maker 15 years ago, explicitly exploiting inefficiencies in products like ETFs. Market makers absolutely do “game the system” in all sorts of ways, but for liquid products like BTC ETF, their actions mostly have the effect of adding meaningful but small costs to consumers; it doesn’t meaningfully change the asset price. For example, market makers may manipulate the price to run stop limit orders. But that’s typically on an intraday timeframe. So they might run an asset like MSFT or BTC 2% in a weak market to trigger stops, then a few seconds or minutes later, the price is mostly back to where it was before. I.e. the price manipulation activities are typically small price moves, made and reverted quickly. Why is BTC down? Because OGs sold tens of thousands of coins, and not enough people wanted to buy them. There are rare exceptions where wall street manipulates an asset in major ways longer term, but this is quite rare because it’s very risky and not as easy as it looks to profit. 99% of the time that an asset isn’t moving like you want and people are crying “manipulation”, it’s best to embrace the cognitive dissonance, avoid the “easy way out” of blaming manipulation, and work to improve your predictive models to better match reality. 1% of the time it really is manipulation as the primary factor. Lastly - everything I’ve written only applies to *short* manipulation. Manipulating stuff *higher* (including bitcoin) happens all the time across many assets.