Alternate Trader

The best stance to take with this wobbly-bobbly stock market is to stay put. I am long 70% and going to stay that way for now. There is no point in trying to time the market when the stakes are so binary. It is true that the $SPX is below the 200-day which is a line in the sand. Yet, with all the uncertainty, we have a market that flushes in the morning and then recovers through some buy the dip activity during the day. The picture shows just the last 4 days (including today so far). We can see that when we open higher we get pushed down and when we open lower we get pushed up. So, there is a narrow channel within which the market is trading. This could be the feature some time and I am just going to wait it out. #StockMarket wobbly-bobbly

@dotkrueger @Dennis_Porter_ And I can't even laugh at this.

“I just got off the most important call in Bitcoin history. What’s coming next will redefine everything you thought you knew about BTC. First of its kind. Game-changing. Nation-state level implications. I’m honestly still processing it. Can’t share details yet. Tomorrow. Tick tock.”

I just got off a phone call. It happened. This is huge for Bitcoin. Something that will be first of its kind. More details coming tomorrow!

@Rory_Johnston @thedispatch I agree now. I was wrong in hoping. This is a situation where executive orders will not work. It will take 2 or more to tango. And we know that the actors are not ready to tango.

My latest contribution to @TheDispatch is a primer on why the Iran War and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is the potential to spiral further into by far the biggest energy shock in history. And markets are sleepwalking into it. thedispatch.com/newsletter/dis…

@MikeZaccardi Somebody is going to have to take the blame for this. Have a feeling I know who it will be. Hopefully investors are protecting themselves.

30yr to 5% $VIX to 30

@KevRGordon Market is forward looking. So, should not shock us if the earnings actually end up moving into the new PE. It does not look like the streets have discounted the earnings based on the oil shock. When that happens, the PE will automatically be back to mean levels.

The Tech sector's forward 12m P/E is now definitively thru its Liberation Day low and at the lowest since January 2023 ... it has gone from 31.7 to 20.2 in just five months

Different ways to look at it. One way to increase GDP (not GDP per capita) is adding people = immigration. GDP per capita is a notional number. In general most people end up doing better. The immigrant population also does better than what they were doing wherever they were. If GDP as a whole does not increase then there will be bigger problems for the country.

@ramonagusta Why would a country do that to itself?

Holy smoke. If I were a British citizen, I would start asking some really tough questions.

The $VIX again hitting the top level of range and backing off some. #Volatility watch

@blondebroker1 Strange that the TurboQuant news by $GOOGL seems to be affecting $SNDK even though $SNDK does not make HBMs. I guess it is sell first ask later.

$SNDK might bounce to $650 then drop $573 Symmetry Weak below $650 But holding purple band at $623.

@sachinvats It was a trick question 😉 and so am I.

@AlternateTrader i m indian i pronounce it as eeran

#TACO alone will not work, it needs some #IRAN sauce to go with it, for markets to make it work. #IRAN = Iran Retreats After Noise

@DanielTNiles Seems to me that the market is punishing all memory chip stocks. Whereas this impacts only the HBM suppliers. NAND suppliers should not be impacted and may actually see more demand.

This $GOOGL compression technique for KV cache, a main bottleneck for HBM during inference, should drive performance gains of up to 8x. LLMs should see this incorporated & benefits by mid-year while reducing memory capex needs relative to prior forecasts. research.google/blog/turboquan…

@amitisinvesting Semis and AI infra are up today - at least some of them: $LRCX, $AMAT, $LITE, $COHR, $CIEN, $GLW. I am seeing rotation in the semis / AI infra plays now.

$IGV SaaS down again today is just becoming exhausting. Why? Claude released a new tool that got 40M views in 12 hours. More automation workflows for people. Which makes the market think more workflows will leave enterprise adoption from $CRM $NOW $ADBE and the other major players…including $MSFT which is now at its lows of the year. Nothing Jensen can say, nothing the software companies can say, no amount of buybacks…it is all now rooted in how the algos perceive software vs AI. Once again, if Anthropic is gonna replace every software name…that needs a TON of compute. That should means semis are up today but they aren’t. Doesn’t make sense but it is the nature of the choppiness of the market.

The $MU price action post earnings has been sluggish to say the least. It was down quite a lot even yesterday. Price is back below the 20-day MA (red curve) and just managed to bounce off the 50-day MA (purple) yesterday. It is far away from the double-bottom bullish pattern I was expecting post earnings. So, what do I do with my long position now? First, I am going to see if the 50-day MA holds at the close. The stock is still making higher highs and higher lows so I am going to be lenient and give it a chance to recover. But not for long. #Micron struggling

It is probably a good thing that streets are looking for proof or signs that the war is really ending. Yesterday's market action was positive and not euphoric. The $SPX actually went above the 50-day MA (yellow) but could not close above it. Same with the $QQQ. The $IWM which has remained above the 200-day MA all along also could not close at the highs of the day. The chart (2nd picture) shows a long upper wick (shadow) that indicates that the bears pushed the price down by the close. And lastly the $VIX also remains elevated above 25. So, if Friday was the low of this pullback, we still need to see confirmation. I do not consider yesterday's market action as confirmation. The good news is that the 200-day MA is still rising and we have touched oversold levels. $SPX close above 6625 which is the 200-day would be helpful as a starter. #StockMarket #SPX

With 1 hour of trading done this week, the $SPY and $QQQ have regained control of the 200-day MA. Price for both are now above. Note that $IWM price never fell below the 200-day. For the large cap I will be watching whether the price can hold above this level as a first step towards a recoverey. And the $VIX is now below 25. Let's see if it closes below the 25 handle today. #stockmarket101

@DanielTNiles The $SPY RSI is at 30.7 which is close enough to be considered oversold IMO. I like the AI infra plays which have been beaten up also to some extent because of $SMCI which is unwarranted.

S&P is not quite oversold using the RSI but arguably one of the most important prices in the world is, 2yr bonds. Their yields at ~3.90% are the north star for Fed funds rates (3.5-3.75%) and have risen over 50 bps (the equivalent to two 25 bps hikes) since late Feb. Jerome Powell statements on Wednesday including "the possibility that our next move might be an increase did come up at the meeting," and "if we don't see progress on inflation, we won't see a rate cut" helped drive this. But a rate hike at the next April meeting seems unlikely given the global risks to growth. Also a new Fed chair should start in mid-May and is more biased towards cuts. As a result, now might be a good time to consider putting some cash to work for those willing to take on more risk and inclined to “buy to the sound of cannons.” Gold related securities which have gone from overbought in late February to now oversold and are historically uncorrelated to the market I believe are a good risk adjusted idea.

Yes, I see it. The $SPX making new lows. Looking like capitulation. The $VIX NOT making new highs. Probability of rebound rising. Rebound does not necessarily mean reversal. Not financial advice.

Remember who are the companies spending capex on AI. It is $AMZN, $GOOGL, $MSFT, $META - the very companies who have been mostly right n technology revolutions. The financial world and stock prices catch-up eventually when they see confirmation.

The flip argument to @markoinny thesis below is that the ROI on AI investments companies make begin to start showing up in 2026 and the stock prices start to rise factoring in the margin improvements. Companies who have not or do not spend capex on AI get their stock prices punished.

The $DELL price has gapped up +8% this morning because of ...... $SMCI