Dale Aluf

@RNicholasBurns China doesn't do alliances. It's only real defense pact is with North Korea. Based on my conversations in the region, no one in the Middle East ever expected China to provide them with meaningful military support. Saudi and UAE are also friends.

China, as well as Russia, is proving to be a feckless friend for its authoritarian allies.

NEW: From Sputnik to satellites: How China is pulling Egypt and Gulf into its space orbit Via @AlufDale al-monitor.com/originals/2025…

As Egypt confronts an increasingly fraught geo-economic matrix, I think Cairo is likely to double down on diversification. @AlMonitor al-monitor.com/originals/2025…

One additional chart: Change in China's exports Q4 2004 vs Q4 2003. This shows more recent momentum. The biggest gains are NOT in countries that re-export Chinese goods to the US (Vietnam and Mexico) but in ASEAN, especially Indonesia. Directly and indirectly, China is shedding dependence on the US market. The geostrategic implications hardly need to be spelled out.

However, should China continue supporting Iran and its axis of resistance at Israel's expense, Jerusalem may become more receptive to expanding cooperation with Taiwan in sensitive areas like security and defense, albeit quietly.

Israel has long been cautious not to upset Beijing on the Taiwan issue. Israel does not formally recognize Taiwan and hosts a Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in Tel Aviv rather than an embassy. Jerusalem is unlikely to change diplomatic recognition from China to Taiwan.

China's newly appointed Ambassador to Israel, Xiao Junzheng, has his work cut out for him, given Beijing's hostile rhetoric and actions towards Jerusalem since the war began in October 2023.

Taiwan's security apparatus has also expressed keen interest in learning from Israeli reserve training, missile defense, intelligence gathering, and UAVs. In April 2024, an Israeli parliamentary delegation visited Taiwan and met with President Tsai Ing-wen.

Iran has the most uncertain future. If the Islamic Republic can reform in accordance with public opinion, #Iran will have a bright future. If it continues to let ideology dominate the country, development will be more difficult.

Iran generated an estimated $50 billion this year in oil revenue, with 90% of its oil exports directed to China. Experts quoted by Reuters noted that nearly ***half*** of this revenue is allocated to the IRGC, marking a sharp increase from around 20% three years ago. This funding, that is, Chinese money, supports up to 80% of Hezbollah's budget, as well as the Houthis and militias in Iraq. "One of the front companies used is China-based Haokun. Operated by former Chinese military officials," according to the sources. "[I]t remains an active conduit for IRGC oil sales into China, despite Washington hitting it with sanctions, opens new tab in 2022." reuters.com/world/middle-e…

As Trump 2.0 looms on the horizon, geopolitics in the Middle East may be in for a seismic shake-up. The US is gearing up to reimpose maximum pressure on Iran, bolster support for Israel, and ramp up confrontation with hashtag China. But the Middle East isn’t standing still.

This is the One Big Thing happening in the world: China's exports to the US were 8% of GDP in 2007. Now it's just 2.3%.

“China will continue to work to create ‘favourable conditions for a political solution’ to the Ukraine crisis, President Xi Jinping said [to Medvedev] while vowing to strengthen ‘strategic synergy’ with Russia.” Note that these favourable conditions are favourable to Russia. 1/

13/ If Syria manages to get its house in order, China will probably congratulate whoever takes power. The new leadership will probably not shun Beijing for calling them terrorists. After all, no one else really wants to rebuild Syria, do they?

12/ When China signed a strategic partnership with Syria in 2023 - it was part of the diplomatic theatrics.

Syria is not as important to China as some analysts and media outlets are making out. 1/13