Adam Segal

Season 2 was an absolute blast! @RyanMiner_FFB and I truly appreciate everyone's support. Thanks to those who chimed in with emails and questions. 🩷 We've already got some fantastic things lined up for next year. Go out there and crush it, #auction fam! 💪

@DmicMedia @RyanMiner_FFB Indeed. The gap between WR1 and WR2 was striking and this isn’t random, it’s a structural shift. WR targets hit a low not seen since 2008. When volume drops, it condenses: true alpha WR1s still get ~30% shares, while WR2s lose out to RBs/TEs in a more conservative NFL.

@AlwaysAuctions @RyanMiner_FFB When you look at “Upside Consistency” on a weekly basis the top WRs separated from the pack even more last year.

If you saw my previous thread about the decline in WR targets per game since 2023, I took the analysis a step further and concluded that the WR “middle class” is officially gone. What does this mean for 2026 #fantasyfootball and #auctions? Let's see what the data says. 🧵⬇️

@FF_AuctionJoe I’d argue this data should change how drafters approach WR-heavy builds, regardless of format. At the end of the day, we can present the findings and offer advice, but it’s up to the fantasy community what they do with it. Kind of mirrors society in general, doesn’t it? 🤔

@AlwaysAuctions It wont change how the elite RBs and WRs ADPs for the most part. Its their auction values that should change. But most wont know about that data and change.

Took a lot of heat on Reddit for this thread, but I think a lot of folks are looking at this the wrong way. 1/

@FF_AuctionJoe Tbh, I don't think most understood the auction takeaways I ended with. They all seemed to be looking at it through an ADP/snake lens. Some were saying three years wasn't enough data (disagree), and others felt it was too reliant on hindsight (wasn't the point).

@AlwaysAuctions What were they complaining about?

So the takeaway isn’t “look what happened,” it’s “look what’s changing.” I’m betting on the scarcity of true target hogs rather than assuming a bounce-back that current trends don’t really support. 🤷‍♂️ /End

The true alpha WR1s still command ~30% target shares because they are the offense, while WR2s are the ones losing volume to RBs and TEs in a more conservative NFL environment. 3/

Thank you so much for reading! I would love to hear your thoughts. Be sure to follow myself, @RyanMiner_FFB, and our podcast, @FFAuctionPod. We're 100% dedicated to auctions, and helping our fans! 👍 Season 3 begins this summer!

TL;DR: The middle class is a trap. Pay for elite or hunt value. Avoid the WR2 dead zone.