GregTheAnalyst

🇮🇩 Indonesia's rupiah falls to record low of 17,720 per US Dollar.

A few days ago, the Japanese government used about $70 billion of its foreign reserves to push the USD/JPY exchange rate from 160 down to 156. But in just two weeks, it has slowly crept back up to around 159. Estimates suggest that Japan has reserves left for about two more large-scale interventions like the one two weeks ago—after that, it will have to start selling U.S. Treasuries. LOL. I can’t wait to see Trump’s reaction. Japan’s biggest problem right now is that no one sees it in a good light. Politically and diplomatically, it is locked in a sharp confrontation with China; militarily, it faces growing pressure from China, with rising risks of conflict; economically, apart from the adult industry, the country is in steady decline. The vulture capital of the world sees this clearly. Shorting the yen is a profitable trade for them—just like shorting Southeast Asian currencies back in 1997. Those sharks already smell blood from Japan’s wounds, and they won’t let go.

Koreans are surrendering life insurance policies to buy SK hynix, Insurance surrenders at the top 3 life insurers jumped 16% last quarter. Savings bank deposits fell below 100 trillion won for the first time in 4 years. Commercial bank time deposits dropped 12 trillion won since February. The entire financial system is being rerouted into 2 semiconductor stocks. When new money into a rally comes not from income but from liquidating safety nets, that is how the end of every cycle looks man, this is crazy ..... Investors over 50 now hold 62% of margin loans at Korea top 10 brokerages. Among those in their 60s, margin debt doubled from 3.9 to 8 trillion won in one year. These are people who spent decades in fixed deposits and real estate, now entering a semiconductor rally on borrowed money at record highs. When the KOSPI dropped 19% in March, leveraged investors in their 60s lost 20% on average. The rally recovered. same thing in smaller model happening in India - MTF, i feel this so stupid

$USDKRW is another currency that's blowing up... Be ready.

Never ever seen this level of pessimism around India in my 20 years of tracking macro and markets. Not in 2008. Not in 2013. Not even in 2020. What’s driving this extreme negativity despite India still being one of the fastest-growing major economies?

Another record. Once again I'd like to return to SOX/GOLD ratio and (M)MA50 -> yes I know it's broken, but this level sits on SOX = 8500 (currently > 10000), but it's (M) chart so its validation will kick in at the end of April. Still, let's say 4,5 full days left Once again those (M)MA50 breaks mostly are being confirmed during last week of a month. I know today it sounds crazy or maybe SOX jumps again to cyclical bull market (while SOX/GOLD breaks (M)MA50)), but I bet weekend + next 4 days in April might be really really weird. While AI companies represent 45% of even S&P500, I'm just a guy who studies just charts, while so so many are now on the verge of just (M)MA50 retest after long 2009+ run. Based on this assumption I observe the last sector SOX which now goes parabolic and asking a question how the month will end. Of course that'll be a key chart for the end of the month.

SOX/GOLD - still ongoing... There're only 2 ways... 1/ SOX to almost double from here 2/ SOX is going to bust from here First bust level on (M)MA50 retest FAILED.

Subprime Auto Loan Delinquencies Hit 32-Year High as Borrowers Face Record-High Payments

Truckload spot rates continue to surge. Now at $3.61/mile on the daily chart. We are within $.06/mile of breaking an all-time record. At this point, it feels inevitable.

🇺🇸🇨🇳🚨CHINA CONFIRMS THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP LEFT BEIJING EMPTY-HANDED: - NO agreement on Iran. - NO concessions on Taiwan. - NO H200 deal. - NO decision on rare earth trucks. - NO release of Jimmy Lai, and fewer Boeing aircraft orders than expected. It was just a holiday trip…

JUST IN: Trump says he’s not looking to travel 9,500 miles to fight war in Taiwan