Andra Garner

This is not a storm to be underestimated. If you are in Florida this week, I cannot emphasize strongly enough how critical it is to heed your local emergency guidance and any evacuation orders. Milton is not a storm to mess with.

By my quick calculations earlier this evening, Hurricane Milton falls in the 99th percentile of fastest intensification rates observed in the Atlantic, in terms of both 12- and 24-hour wind speed increases. It's also reached near record low pressures.

Update: Hurricane Milton has now officially jumped from Category 1 to Category 5 in under 10 hours. Even having done the research that shows that this is what we can expect in a warmer climate doesn't make it less crazy to watch.

Milton has intensified from a Tropical Storm to Cat 4 hurricane in <24 hrs, and jumped from Cat 1 to Cat 4 in <12 hrs. My work shows this kind of strengthening is 2-3 times more likely now than in the 70s-80s...Milton joins Helene in this group of extremes nature.com/articles/s4159…

Storm surge hazards are worsened by large storms (>chance peak surge overlaps high tide) and sea-level rise (which gives surge flooding a "headstart" in a warming climate). Cedar Key and surrounding regions are likely see a historical surge from #Helene amplified by both tonight.

ICYMI: Last week we hosted Dr. Timothy Collins (@WilkesCenter), @AndraJReed (@RowanUniversity) & Dr. Antonia Sebastian (@fldhzd @GillingsGlobal) for a briefing on how a #hurricane affects infrastructure, health, and the environment. Free to quote/clip/use: bit.ly/3XMWiy2

My recent research shows that, comparing storms from the 70s-80s to storms since 2001, modern Atlantic hurricanes are >3x as likely to strengthen from Category 1 or less into Major Hurricanes within 12 hours—I guess #HurricaneHelene wanted to join the club nature.com/articles/s4159…

#TyphoonYagi looks to be lining up tragically well with findings from our recent @Nature_NPJ paper, where we noted changes to typhoon tracks that lead to future increases in both peak intensity and duration compared to historical Hai Phong storms nature.com/articles/s4161…

#HurricaneDebby is looking like it may be a notable rain event for most of the East Coast... Keep an eye on the forecast if you're in the region!

@HermansTHJ Fantastic!

The #AGU2024 abstract deadline is tomorrow! If you do #CoastalClimate research, we hope you'll submit to our session! agu.confex.com/agu/agu24/prel…

Our #AGU2024 session welcomes abstracts on past, present, or future #CoastalChange including #SeaLevelChange, #TropicalCyclones, #CoastalFlooding, #StormSurge, #Earthquakes, #Tsunamis, and #Ecosystems. agu.confex.com/agu/agu24/prel… @theAGU @isabelhong_geo

Calling all #CoastalClimate researchers! If you're going to be at #AGU2024, consider submitting an abstract to our session "GC066 Dynamic Coastlines amidst Changing Sea Levels: Advancements in Understanding of Coastal Hazards and Climate Change Impacts"agu.confex.com/agu/agu24/prel…

Results show that the cities of Hai Phong (Vietnam), Yangon (Myanmar), and Bangkok (Thailand) can all expect to see increases in both tropical cyclone intensity and duration in a warmer future, emphasizing the need for both adaptation and mitigation.

Key changes to storm tracks in a warmer future include: 1) Poleward shifts in both genesis and peak intensification 2) Genesis and fastest intensification occur closer to coastlines 3) Storms moving most slowly and persisting longer over land

🚨New paper alert!🚨Excited to share that my work with colleagues from @EOS_SG and @Penn_EES looking at changing tropical cyclone tracks in SE Asia has been published in @Nature_NPJ! @RowanUniversity @NTUsg @SeaLevelNTU @dhruba_samanta @MannResearch rdcu.be/dMvJI

We know that as we warm the planet, we’re warming our sea surface temperatures as well,” explains @AndraJReed an assistant professor at Rowan University in the US. @MarkPoynting #CycloneBeryl bbc.com/news/articles/…

Why Beryl Is a Bad Sign for This Year’s Hurricane Season via @NYTimes featuring ⁦@AndraJReed⁩ from ⁦NJ’s @RowanUniversity⁩ nytimes.com/2024/07/01/wea…

Category 5. On 1 July. Just over 72 hours after reaching Tropical Storm status. Again... Unprecedented? Yes. Unexpected? Not to anyone who studies climate change.

Unprecedented, but totally expected: that's the phrase that's been coming to mind as I talk to folks about #HurricaneBeryl today. As we warm our planet and oceans, it should come as no surprise that hurricanes are reaching greater intensities, more quickly, earlier in the season.