Aneeka Gupta

Europe is no longer underowned and overlooked, it's entering a new phase. In this episode of The Next Big Thing, @AneekaGuptaWT and Baoqi Zhu join @MobeenTahirWT to explore how defence and infrastructure are reshaping the European investment landscape. From rising defence order backlogs to a multi-trillion euro infrastructure gap, this is a structural story driven by policy, geopolitics and long-term demand. 🎧 Listen on Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/5l1LAJ… 📺 Watch on YouTube: youtu.be/2Sg8M-ByaIs #marketingcommunication

Unrealized losses at Japan's regional banks are surging: Unrealized losses for Japanese regional banks on domestic bond holdings surged +$4 billion in Fiscal Q2 2025, ending September 30th, to a record $21.3 billion. This marks a 260% increase since March 2024, when the Bank of Japan hiked rates for the first time since 2007. Banks now face their 5th consecutive year with unrealized losses on bond holdings. This comes as Japanese government bonds have seen their most severe price decline in history. Japan's bond market is in trouble.

The Bank of Japan’s ETF gains are skyrocketing: The market value of the BoJ’s ETF holdings jumped +18.5% YoY in 6 months, to a record ¥83.2 trillion. This comes as paper gains on the holdings rose to a record ¥46.0 trillion, driven by the stock market rally. Unrealized ETF profits in 6 months have already surpassed full-year unrealized gains from fiscal 2023 and 2024. Additionally, the BoJ’s revenues from ETF dividends surged +18.7% YoY, to ¥1.5 trillion. In September, the central bank announced it would sell its ETFs at a pace of ¥330 billion per year, a rate that would take over 100 years to liquidate all holdings. Meanwhile, unrealized losses on its bond portfolio spiked +350% YoY, to ¥32.8 trillion, as bond yields continued to surge. Japan’s monetary policy is moving in all directions.

BREAKING: THE THIRTY YEAR EXPERIMENT IS OVER Japan’s 10-year yield just hit 1.85 percent. Highest since the collapse of Lehman Brothers. But here is what no one is telling you: The 30-year yield touched 3.40 percent. The 40-year approaches 3.71 percent. These are levels never charted in modern Japanese monetary history. For three decades, the Bank of Japan suppressed rates to zero, bought half of all government bonds, and became the buyer of only resort. Japanese institutions, starved of domestic yield, poured $1.19 trillion into US Treasuries. They became the marginal buyer holding together the entire Western sovereign debt complex. That era just ended. Prime Minister Takaichi approved a 21.3 trillion yen stimulus last week. The largest since the pandemic. The bond market responded by pushing yields to generational highs. The swap market now prices 62 percent odds of a December rate hike. Nearly 90 percent for January. Japan’s debt stands at 255 percent of GDP. Every 100 basis point rise adds trillions in annual debt service. And yet: with inflation at 3 percent and the 10-year at 1.85 percent, real yields remain negative 1.15 percent. This is not collapse. This is normalization. The world’s largest creditor nation is bringing its capital home. Not in panic. In arithmetic. When 30-year JGBs yield 3.40 percent, Japanese life insurers no longer need US Treasuries to match liabilities. The math has inverted. The doom narrative demands panic. The data demands precision. We are not witnessing the end of the global financial system. We are witnessing the end of free money. After thirty years, capital finally has a cost. Position accordingly.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ Read the full deep dive article here 👇 open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

🛡️ European defence is a theme defined by clarity and conviction. As geopolitical priorities shift and investment cycles deepen, not all defence strategies are created equal. In this fireside chat, @AneekaGuptaWT and @MobeenTahirWT unpack the structural transformation underway in European defence, from capacity scaling and digital innovation to policy-backed demand. 📺 Watch the full video here: wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/multimed…

“Brazil’s adoption of AI ranks among the highest in emerging markets, with an unusually elevated adoption for the level of development of the country when compared to others” – JPM’s Vinicius and Cassiana. “The most visible effect …is through the import of the service itself” 👀

Join us in partnership with @IBKR on Wednesday, 20 November at 3:00 PM CET as @AneekaGuptaWT explores how the global contest for strategic metals and rare earths is reshaping supply chains, policy, and investment strategies. Register here: #register/8432873105388118873?source=WisdomTree+EU" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">register.gotowebinar.com/#register/8432… #marketingcommunication

Gold rush in Vietnam as people storm shops to buy and sell the yellow metal, which now trades at over $4,300 per ounce.

From joint procurement to strategic stockpiles, defence planning is shifting from crisis response to long-term readiness. With EU, NATO and national backing, multi-year spending is creating real visibility across the supply chain. In her latest blog, @AneekaGuptaWT explores where long-term defence demand is taking shape—and what it could unlock for investors. 👉 Read the full blog: wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/202… #marketingcommunication

Japan’s new Liberal Democratic Party leader, Sanae Takaichi, brings fiscal expansion, sector focus and stronger corporate returns. Policy and reform could anchor Japan’s next growth phase. Read the blog post from @JeremyDSchwartz and @AneekaGuptaWT to learn more: bit.ly/4mSWqVP

The Ratio of Consumer Staples to the S&P 500 hit its lowest level since 2000 this week. Video: youtube.com/watch?v=nuDXtH…

Shocking stat of the day: The Bank of Japan currently holds $250 billion worth of Japanese ETFs at book value, meaning what it originally paid. At market value, or what they are worth today, these ETFs are worth over $508 billion. As a result, the Bank of Japan owns ~7% of all Japanese stocks through these ETFs. This makes the BoJ one of the largest single investors in Japan's equity market. On Friday, the Bank of Japan announced it would start selling its holdings at a pace of $4.2 billion per year. At that rate, it would take over 100 years to sell everything. Truly unprecedented.

⚠️Foreigners own more US stocks than EVER: Overseas investors now own a RECORD 18% of the US equity market. Foreign investors collectively own ~$20 trillion of US stocks and ~$14 trillion in US debt, including Treasuries, mortgage and corporate bonds, according to Bloomberg.

Late good morning from Germany, where the once-mighty auto industry has fallen so far that it now makes up less than 10% of the Dax.

Good Morning from #Germany, where the country’s export model is under threat. Exports to China have dropped to €82bn over the past 12mths – the lowest level since 2017 – and sales to its most important export market, the US, are also slipping.

📊 In WisdomTree’s Autumn Equity Market Outlook, @AneekaGuptaWT, Director of Macroeconomic Research, notes that US markets just recorded their widest underperformance versus global peers since 1993, weighed down by tariff shocks and fading exceptionalism. 🌍 Meanwhile, Europe, Japan and Emerging Markets currently present more attractive valuation cushions, supported by fiscal stimulus, governance reform and rising domestic demand. These dynamics suggest investors may want to diversify beyond US equities to capture broader opportunities. 👉 Read more in our new Autumn Equity Market Outlook blog: wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/202… #MarketingCommunication

Two key points on EU-US trade (1) Most of EU surplus is pharma (still no clarity on US tariffs) due to transfer pricing of US multinationals (2) US large surplus in services trade is its mirror image. Big distortions in EU-US trade but tariffs are a blunt tool (US tax code key).

CAUTION: Credit card debt has been rising aggressively It has now almost reached the $1.1 trillion mark People are spending much more than they can afford…

🚨US recession alert: The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) drawdown is now 17.8%, the biggest since the Financial Crisis. The LEI fell 4.0% Y/Y in June, to the lowest in 11 YEARS, and posted the 3rd straight month in which it has triggered a recession signal.

Nikkei jumps and Yen gains as #Japan's assets enjoy relief from US trade agreement. The headline 15% reciprocal tariff is a considerable discount from the 25% in the letter earlier this month. Toyota shares rising as much as 10% after NHK reported the US would impose a tariff rate of 15% on auto imports.