Andonia

@JC_ParetsX Individual stocks up 15-20-30 points in a day for multiple days, one day pullbacks before resuming, legit groundbreaking technology behind stocks moving.

Why do people keep comparing today’s market to 1999-2000? I’ve genuinely tried to find the similarities and I’m struggling. Can anyone explain the top conspiracy theories behind why this is supposedly the same environment?

@Mr_Derivatives @grok Looks like 1999-2000 price behavior-quick shallow corrections, crazy one day moves etc.

@Grok, Has there ever been a stock or etf in stock market history where it went an entire month without having a red day?

@RyanDetrick @CNBC Congrats! You’ll provide the data insights the TV watchers sorely need. Hope we don’t lose you on x!!

🚨 Big News 🚨 I've watched @CNBC probably everyday the past 27 years. I am so excited and honored to announce I am officially part of the team as a CNBC Contributor!

Rory McIlroy shares one of his favorite mantras and mindsets. "One of the things that I love is focusing on the process over the prize." "I would say to myself a lot: 'Process over prize. Process over prize. Process over prize.'" "Just to take myself away from the outcome." Own the process and focus on what you can control. Then he mentions what happens to all of us: "I can get real caught up in the outcome. I just really need to remind myself that the outcome will ultimately happen if you just focus on the process. It takes care of itself." Everyone loves outcomes, very few love the process. It means focus, discipline, consistency, and relentless commitment. It doesn't matter what you want, it matters what you are willing to consistently do. (🎥 icanflypod)

@_MCRicardo_ @LoriShemek @_atanas_ @CelestinoGutirr @drfherediaz @DrGrimaldesJ @DrRPalmquist @guani_vic How much to eat per day to make a difference?

Blueberry (BB) Consumption Enhances Vascular Function but Not Cognitive Abilities in Healthy Individuals: A System Rev & Meta-A 🫐 BB intervention significantly improved flow-mediated dilation in healthy individuals. 🫐 Non-significant improvements observed in executive function & mood following BB intervention. 🫐 Future trials needed to address bias risk in existing randomized controlled trials. sciencedirect.com/science/articl… @HealthyFellow @tatiann69922625 @LoriShemek 🫐 BB intervention demonstrated some efficacy in reducing vascular-related risks

@TradeOutLoud Looks like you're around LBS/Galt area. Watch out for divers by the pier!

Heading to lunch in Fort Lauderdale today.

@TradeOutLoud Shooters? Kaluz? 15th Street Fisheries? So many options...lucky you!

@JC_ParetsX TGT even though discretionary was supposedly weak.

What was the best chart this week?

@JC_ParetsX QQQ should at least clear the 200d (where it found resistance yesterday) and monthly MACD should get oversold. which it is not yet.

Anyone think this is sustainable? Or does the reversion to positive happen quickly?

@austinsilverfx GM FL!

Trading from here this week

@John_Kass Perastika!

My first column back from hospital: Suppression of Dissent in a One-Party State: An Honored Judge Fights Back - John Kass johnkassnews.com/suppression-of…

@walterkirn Malcolm Gladwell addresses this in "Outliers."

One of the puzzles I find myself mulling over -- too often -- is the question of why artistic genius springs up in geographic clusters rather than in some broad, roughly predictable way. So many great musical talents from Seattle all at once? Whatever may be behind this phenomenon, it doesn't seem to operate with AIs, whose outputs don't arrive in this irregular, qualitatively "lumpy" fashion.

This is a super cool idea.

@JC_ParetsX How soon until SPY is closed due to underperformance (JK obviously).

@TheOneLanceB Great post. Maybe you can expand upon stop placement and timeframe (long term vs short term and tight vs wide stop). Should the stop match the timeframe?

THE SHORTEST TIMEFRAMES HAVE THE MOST EDGE! This is a view I’ve mentioned before in interviews, but I’ve never taken the time to fully expand on. In general, you want to be an expected value maximalist (within risk constraints). And the shortest human timeframes offer that. Yes, I mostly do bigger picture trades now but that’s due to scalability and quality of life, not bc they offer the most edge. The paradox of markets is this: -The shortest timeframes often have the biggest dislocations (most “edge per minute”) -The longest timeframes often have the biggest tailwind (asset prices tend to rise over time) -The middle is where many traders get chopped up This principle is the reason why there were traders at Trillium that could be positive hundreds of days in a row. You’ll never see that with a swing trader or value investor. 1. Why short timeframes can have so much edge At very short horizons, markets can be temporarily inefficient because of: -forced behavior (stops, liquidations, margin pressure) -delayed human interpretation of information -mechanical flows around opens/closes -short-lived supply/demand vacuums Those create moments where price can be “wrong” for seconds/minutes relative to where it’s about to reprice. In fact, at the extreme short end of human discretionary trading like the two following examples, you can find opportunities that approach 100% win rate with a profit factor of 10+. Of course there is a trade-off which I’ll get into. 2. Order flow imbalances One of the biggest short-term edges is understanding order flow imbalance. Yes, these happen far less of the now than they used to as discussed in my interview yesterday with Serge. But they still exist particularly during times of market extremes. -aggressive buyers/sellers temporarily overwhelm passive liquidity -one-sided flow causes price to overshoot or stall -liquidity can disappear at key moments, then refill at new levels You’ll see this around: -opening auctions -panic flushes / squeezes -large fund rebalancing windows -crowded positioning unwinds This is where the tape can get dislocated from “fair” value in the short run and where active traders can extract edge. It is also why some of those hyperscalpers like @EdBarry4 are positive so many days in a row. 3. Breaking news is where discretionary human traders still have the edge over algos in interpreting novel headlines. There’s usually a sequence: -headline reaction -second-order interpretation -positioning unwind/chase -stabilization If you’re prepared and fast, these windows can be highly asymmetric. In fact, breaking news can offer some of the best opportunities in existence, especially when applied to liquid instruments (think April 2025 tariff headlines!). In fact, I’d argue tariff headlines due to their massive impact on global markets are some of the best expected value opportunities I’ve ever seen. 4. But there’s a tradeoff: liquidity + scalability The shorter the timeframe, the more your edge depends on: -execution speed -order optimization -fee minimization -slippage minimization So yes, edge can be highest in short windows but liquidity becomes the constraint. Many short-duration edges don’t scale without degrading returns. That is why many traders post eye-watering returns in small caps but then you constantly see them doing their dumb small account challenges. It’s because their strategies don’t scale! 5. Beware the middle ground. Take this thought experiment. Let’s say $AAPL flash crashes 90%. With near-certainty, Apple will bounce within minutes close back to the unaffected price. What happens overnight is more of a toss-up. What does the market do? Does news come out? Yet over the course of 5-10 years, it’s likely the $AAPL goes up. In that middle ground, you take on variance from overnight risk, headline risk, and market risk. But don’t benefit much from the fact that over years, markets go up. It’s much more of a coin flip whether we go up or down any given day. If I had to guess, the most edge is in tenths of seconds and seconds for humans. The least edge is in the window of weeks. Why not compete at even faster timeframes? Bc then you fight with HFT, commission structures, co-location, and more. 6. So how to apply this? First, this is useful for the sniff test. Understanding that there is a trade-off between edge and liquidity is critical! There is a reason why you see small cap traders that can scale a small account over 1,000% in a year (think early days of @theshortbear). There is also a reason why Warren Buffett has approached market returns. It’s that trade-off between edge and scale. Similar to the general trade-off between win-rate and profit factor, it’s a safe assumption that these often tend to move inverse to each other. It’s the reason why that if I managed $1B my returns would probably get quartered and if I managed $10B my returns would approach market returns or worse. This framework is also useful for finding the most edge and understanding your strategies. If you’re moving to a higher timeframe, you generally SHOULD expect more variance. That comes with the benefit of scalability. Similarly, if you want to study micro-inefficiencies, particularly in less efficient markets like crypto, you can find some insane edges there.

@patrickbetdavid Learn to think for yourself.

What is the biggest lesson you learned from your father growing up? Share 👇🏽

@JC_ParetsX Youth/time is their greatest asset for building wealth. Start now.

I'm giving a talk to college students tonight. What should I tell them?

@MiamiOpen Is there a webiste link?

Serving looks 🔥 New merchandise collections available this year at the Miami Open Shop 🎾

He literally explained why some peoples are not depressed (in 30 seconds)

@RyanDetrick And interest rates coming off an extreme level, although we are coming off the lower end now.

Stocks peaked in 1968 and didn't make a new high until 1980. That was a secular bear market. This kicked off a 20 year secular bull market until 2000. The last time the USA won 🥇 in hockey was 1980. Coincidence? Here's to another 20 year 🐂 run.