Ari Sarsalari

@SCweather_wx Android too 🥺

REALLY can’t wait until WeatherFront gets a desktop version. I’m all in with them when/if they do.

@toof_black @BrandonCopicWx @StrmchsrHunterF @ChasingWConnor @haleymeierwx We briefly did at the end of the first block I believe..

@AriWeather @BrandonCopicWx @StrmchsrHunterF @ChasingWConnor @haleymeierwx Tried seeing if you touched on chaser convergence. Now I can watch this in full

If anyone missed our show the other night where we talked with storm chasers @BrandonCopicWx @StrmchsrHunterF @ChasingWConnor and @haleymeierwx , here's a link to the unedited full show.. there's a plethora of useful info on chasing here #wxtwitter youtube.com/watch?v=1zGCkc…

Blowing Dust Advisory issued May 3 at 1:33PM CDT until May 3 at 7:00PM CDT by NWS Lincoln IL

IYKYK

@oldscarf1stweek Bro what's with all your serious posts lately, who are you even

There’s a mismatched vibe I feel like people are ignoring. Established content creators chase for results, meaning dramatic footage and close positioning because that is what fuels their brand, their paychecks, analytics. That approach makes sense for them. But not everyone out there shares that goal. Nor do they have to, a few care about the science, some about the experience, and others are still learning and choosing to stay conservative. They are not failing, they are just playing a different game. So when creators look down on chasers for not streaming, making long form content, not putting out enough videos getting close, they are making a bad comparison. They can’t accept someone wants to do something different than them, and vice versa. Why are we judging people by standards that only apply to some made up definition someone else gave to storm chasing. At that point it stops being about skill and starts being about ego and validation. Chase your own chase. The only comparison you need to make it’s between peers. Content creators to content creators, photog to photog, media to media, forecast to forecast, goals to goals.

My credit score dropped when I paid off my car and student loans. Credit agencies said I should get more loans to increase my credit score. The system punishes you for not owing them money. They want you to be in debt. Credit scoring is a scam.

False alarm rates have led to “how do I disable weather alerts on my phone” trending on Twitter during a severe weather outbreak last month. Technology has grown leaps and bounds, yet we continue to over warn for tornadoes. At what point does “better safe than sorry” turn into the boy that cried wolf, and end up getting more people killed because they’ve become numb to warnings?

@backinblack_wx @oldscarf1stweek Yeah I basically just meant as another piece of info to work with. Certainly not saying you should wait till you see a chaser catch one before issuing a warning lol. The more tools the better!

@oldscarf1stweek @AriWeather My job is not to issue warnings when I see a tornado…my job is to warn before the tornado. Chasers and reports are great to say “hey your process was correct keep going” but if I wait for every chaser report on social media it will end poorly for several reasons.

False alarm rates would go down by utilizing real time live streaming into issuing warnings rather than just velocity couplet quality in a specific parameter space. We always talk about ground truth and now more than ever we have it especially on plains and midwest storm days.

I strongly disagree. The long term cumulative downside to high FAR is massive.. it's just common sense - "we get tornado warnings all the time, nothing ever happens." Not that it's a great mind set but with the FAR that high I don't blame them one bit. Of course, there's nuance.. obviously it''s not a perfect science. Nobody expects 0% FAR but I think we can do better than 75%. We've made advancements in communicating different threat levels (confirmed vs radar). We have more eyes on the storms.. but theres a lot of stuff still just plain behind the times. Like when sirens go off for an entire county when only a tiny corner of it is in the polygon I understand not wanting to miss one as a forecaster, but it's not about you.. it's about how seriously the general public takes serious threats in the long term. I don't think blanket-TOR-warning a QLCS with a few inflow notches just in case an EF-0 spins up for 3 minutes is good practice if you expect all the people in that polygon take shelter and take TORs seriously in the long term. I think forecasters need to ditch the fear of a "missed event" because it's the stronger tornadoes that kill the vast majority of people.. we can do better imo. I'm open minded to opposing opinions btw, all ears but this is what my experience has shown

@amarkowitzWX There’s immediate downside for a missed event. You feel terrible. There’s no immediate downside to a false alarm, and very little long term cumulative downside. So the incentives are to just issue the red box.

Learned about this last month at the Mississippi State Severe Storms Symposium and was pretty shocked. Crazy that the false alarm rate for tornadoes is around 75% and has not improved much with technology! Curious how we fix this without sacrificing POD. Better safe than sorry?

@oldscarf1stweek If any NWS mets wanna chime in, I'd be curious to know exactly how chaser reports are factored in. Do you have a bunch of screens to watch streams in the background? Is it when you see something on social media?

@oldscarf1stweek I've noticed several cases this year specifically that make me believe they are actually watching chasers/streamers in office.. I would argue FAR is just classic over-warning.. "better safe than sorry" which I've always thought to be counterproductive

Before I pressed play - "here comes a chaser with an overestimated 70mph wind gust" After watching the clip - "are we sure this isn't Hurricane Charley? Learned my lesson.. amazing video @CPalermo_Storms 🤌

"Put the phone down, put all the radar apps away, just spend time using your eyes to look at the storm." @StrmchsrHunterF dropping bangers. It's really that simple and has brought me my own success at it.

@JZiskey @haleymeierwx @night We really appreciate that...it's a great group of talented passionate people

@haleymeierwx @AriWeather @night You and your crew do awesome work. 👍

So much fun with @AriWeather sharing the experiences of storm chasing!! Love the innovation they’re doing on @night

Obviously as a broadcaster, you can't accurately predict EF ratings just from looking at damage photos.. but for me, the TREES always tell a story. When I see trees mangled down to knubs like this with debarking, I feel comfortable guessing EF3+

Great stuff for broadcasters here.. @haleymeierwx on the valuable perspective she's learned working closely with @BrandonCopicWx in the field tracking severe storms

@BrandonCopicWx @JordanHallWX @StrmchsrHunterF @ChasingWConnor Will you? Can you beat 5"?

@JordanHallWX @AriWeather @StrmchsrHunterF @ChasingWConnor I'll show you something great

"What's your best advice for a beginner storm chaser?" - @BrandonCopicWx @StrmchsrHunterF and @ChasingWConnor with some great stuff here.

@MarvinDMartian_ @foxweather safelite repair, safelite replace

@AriWeather @foxweather Great show everyone...that's a lot of glass(:

@WeMetWx @foxweather @BrandonCopicWx That's like... the ultimate compliment.. ty so much. Maybe we'll do more of these!

@AriWeather @foxweather first time watcher, meant to only check it out, ended up passing my game to watch! Totally not what I was expecting and pleasantly surprising!! @BrandonCopicWx #wx #xwx