@SRxTrades @SRxTrades , you mentioned the breakout method works well in strong markets. Are there times when you use other entry methods (ie. pullback method) in markets that are choppy.
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Cade Arnel
83 posts
Cade Arnel
@ArnelCade
Able to buy real-estate in tight quarters
Katılım Mayıs 2021
60 Takip Edilen35 Takipçiler
The reason this strategy works so well is because we are trading the stocks that are leading the market higher and emerging out of strong sectors and themes.
We are also taking advantage of the strongest environments in the markets when stocks are breaking out and following through
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This strategy makes me +$99,566 a month
no secret sauce, just price action and volume
simple and repeatable
Below you can steal my exact swing trading strategy:🧵
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@ohiain I feel the biggest thing that will move the needle for me is getting more in sync ( timing) with the market to enter stocks, sell & sit. There's times when I read your posts about periods in the market when you sitting on your hands, so I'd love to know more about your process.🙏
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Over the last 4 years Ive made over 1000 students profitable
I'm giving everyone an opportunity to work with me for FREE
If you want to lock in with me and get on the path to profitability
Like, & reply "mentor" & I'll dm you a link
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@ohiain Great post Iain, thanks for sharing. I love how you have set a clear and simple framework around VIX level to guide your decision making
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"When a stock in a leading theme/sector gets tight around the 50EMA, it's almost always sitting right on the 9WEEK.
and that confluence of support is exactly the cue I use to start stalking a name and preparing for a potential entry when expansion finally comes."
$UUUU:
iain@ohiain
When a stock in a leading theme/sector gets tight around the 50EMA, it's almost always sitting right on the 9WEEK. and that confluence of support on multiple timeframes is exactly the cue I use to start stalking a name and preparing for a potential entry when expansion finally comes. I'm currently watching several names that fit this exact setup: $PL, $UUUU, $ONDS, and $AEO. all of which are compressing around their 50EMA on the daily chart while simultaneously sitting on the 9week. and what I'm specifically waiting for is the expansion off that 9week where I can buy the strength on lower timeframes like the 15/30 min charts to get a precise entry with tight risk while still trading the larger timeframe structure. The beauty of this approach is that you're stacking multiple layers of probability. you have the higher timeframe support from the weekly 9EMA, you have the daily 50EMA acting as a pivot, and you're entering on the lower timeframe when momentum actually shifts, and buyers step in with conviction. which gives you the highest chance the trade will work because you're aligned with structure, momentum, and the bigger trend all at once. - wait for the expansion off the weekly 9 - buy the leaders in the strongest themes - put your stop below the pivot/LOD of the entry day ...and let the trade do the work. because when you stack timeframes like this and wait for the right entry... you're giving yourself asymmetric r/r that makes holding through strength so much easier!!
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@ohiain Another great read. Just wondering if you take any consideration to VIX level and how the VIX is behaving, when considering market environment?
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To add on, the quickest and simplest way I've found to determine the market environment can be quantified by looking at the EMAs.
whether the major indexes are trading above, below, or chopping around the 9/21 + 50 EMA.
because these three moving averages give me everything I need to know about short-term momentum, intermediate structure, and the bigger trend without overcomplicating the analysis.
A "risk-on" environment can be defined when the indexes are trading above all three moving averages.
with the EMAs stacked in proper order (9 above 21, 21 above 50) and price is making higher lows while respecting those levels as support.
...which tells me that buyers are in control, institutional money is defending the trend, and I can afford to be more aggressive with my position sizing and give my trades more room to work.
A "risk-off" environment shows up as choppy behavior around the moving averages.
This is where price is constantly whipping above and below the 9 and 21 without any clear direction.
or it's currently in distribution or weakness when price is trading below the 9 and 21 EMAs and showing lower highs and lower lows.
which tells me that sellers are in control and I need to be defensive, size smaller, and potentially step back entirely until the environment stabilizes.
The 9 and 21 EMAs are what I use for short-term trend and momentum.
The 50 EMA is my last line in the sand... if price breaks below the 50 with velocity and volume, that's a major structure change and I'm not interested in playing offense until I see a reclaim and stabilization above that level.
What I'm really looking at is the behavior around these EMAs.
not just whether price is above or below them in a static sense, because the psychology of how price interacts with these levels tells me everything I need to know about whether the market is in a phase where directional swing trading makes sense or whether it's a phase where I should be sitting on my hands.
I can easily look at a chart of $SPY, $QQQ, or any individual name and, within seconds, tell you if it's in a clear "risk-on" or "risk-off" environment.
This is all based on how it's behaving around these moving averages, and this goes for all my analysis.
...whether I'm looking at the overall indexes to gauge market health or individual names to determine if they're worth trading.
Also, an important note is that in choppy markets where moving averages are no longer working as support and price is just whipping through them without respect, I become much more conservative on entries and wait for cleaner confirmation.
but when everything is bouncing cleanly off support and respecting those moving averages consistently, that's when I lean in and become more aggressive because the environment is telling me that the odds are in my favor!!
"The Cycle of Price Action" by @OliverKell_ is a great representation of how to use EMAs in different environments and understand the transitions between accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown, and a big part of my approach has come from studying Oliver's material and then catering it to my own personal characteristics and tendencies.
Right now, @investingluc pointed out, $SPY has been sitting in a $20 range for almost three months chopping around its moving averages.
and $QQQ has been similarly messy, and $BTC has been in a strong downtrend, which tells me that breakouts can be unreliable until $SPY picks a true direction.
I believe speculative assets should be "risk-off" for now until proper basing occurs, and it's a stock picker's market where ideas should be rooted in only the strongest themes with the clearest relative strength.
I'm not super comfortable trading directional strategies in "non-directional" choppy markets, so I make sure the current environment is conducive to swing trading before committing to FULL size positions.
because fighting the environment is a losing battle, no matter how good your individual setups look on paper!!
This is something I'm actively thinking through over the next few week/months.
I'd recommend giving my friend @investingluc a follow. He provides true value, and I always find myself constantly reviewing his work every week!
Luc@investingluc
"It was an amazing setup, so why are all my trade ideas failing now?" Because the setup isn’t the problem...the market environment is. The overall market can make or break individual trades. So how do you know if conditions are good for swing trading? Watch this 30 second clip first. "You need to have some way to quantify when environments change" + know what to focus on. Here's quickly how I do it: Look at $SPY for overall sentiment, $QQQ for growth/tech behavior, and $BTC as a read on speculative appetite. Right, now $SPY has been sitting in a $20 range for almost 3 months now, $QQQ similarly, and $BTC's been is a strong downtrend. Telling me: > breakouts can be unreliable until $SPY picks a true direction > speculative assets (emerging tech, software, crypto) should be risk off for now, until basing occurs. > it's a stock picker's market, and ideas should be rooted in only the strongest themes I'm not super comfortable trading directional strategies in non-directional (choppy) markets. Make sure the current market is conducive for directional swing trading before committing to sizable positions.
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@TopherField What about all the imported product in supermarkets these days, where they create their own brand & import from overseas & not supporting Australia farmers. Tinned fruit and vegetables, salt, sauces etc. Topher this would be a great video topic for the future, you'll be shocked.
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They're shutting down our food supply based on THIS?
I'm not easily shocked anymore, but this shocked me because it's just SO obviously insane... and yet in today's Australia, it makes perfect sense.
Australia's food security is being destroyed and we now import more than half of our seafood... NOT because we've over-fished our shores, but because our bureaucrats are idiots.
Find Dane here: oceantruthaustralia.com
I am 100% viewer supported, please help me to keep the Topher Project going by buying me a coffee via the button at topherfield.com
Check out my books, DVDs, and merch via the SHOP button at topherfield.com
Get your ticket to the ODD Cast 1st birthday here: store.topherfield.com/products/the-o…
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thinking about making a 10 part Youtube series
going over my entire process:
-Identifying A+ setups
-How to find the best sectors and stocks
-How I enter trades
-My trimming and exit strategy
Let me know if this is something you would want me to work on 👀
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@ohiain Awesome writeup mate. I love how you describe your thoughts process too. With your stop & risk management , just wondering if you use a time stop , for stocks that squat after entry, and neither hit your stop or progress as normal? How much time would you give to prove itself.
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If you want a clear framework for how to consistently find "high probability" trade ideas...
this is the system I use every single week.
Save this post, because I break down my simple process from stock selection to entry, risk + scaling winners so you can reference it anytime.
First, I want to reiterate that there are many nuances I did not attach, as I would be writing a whole book if I talked about every specific part of my system.
...but this should give you an overview of how I think and process the markets!
1) Finding "High Probability" Trades:
I start every scan by looking for leaders in hot themes and groups with relative strength (RS). These are the stocks where institutions are already allocating capital, and where the next leg of momentum is most likely to happen.
I filter using these criteria:
Multi week bases with tight structure and preferably <4 ATR% extension from the 50-day MA.
Linearity in price action, clean HH/HLs.
High ADR% (preferably +4% or more) showing active daily movement.
Trading above key moving averages: 9/21/50 EMA, 9/21 week.
Volume patterns confirming buyers/sellers at key pivots.
Tightness around EMAs and reclaiming prior lows (U&R setups).
I avoid names that look cheap or pulled back the most, because RS tells me where money is actually flowing.
2) Entry Rules:
In the current market, my favorite entries are undercuts and reclaims (U&R) off moving averages or other key pivots. These setups give me defined risk and allow me to enter before the crowd catches on.
Intraday, I use 15/30 min charts for timing entries after the U&R or reclaim is validated.
The stop is almost always low of day (LOD) or invalidation level, giving me tight, defined risk.
I never chase breakouts blindly... I wait for confirmation from structure and volume.
The key is stacking layers of probability:
- Base + reclaim of moving averages
- Relative strength vs peers and market
- Hot theme + institutional footprint
- Tight daily candles compressing against EMAs
- Volume confirming the move
3) Stop-Loss & Risk Management:
Everything revolves around drawdown control:
- Stops are placed at clear invalidation levels, usually LOD or major pivot lows.
- When trading monthlies, this year... I have not taken more than -15% loss on a trade, and my winners have hit 400%-500%+ on a few trades because risk was clearly defined.
After trimming partial profits, I trail my stop using daily 9/21 EMA, higher lows, or intraday pivots.
My goal is always: protect the downside and let the upside work.
4) Profit-Taking Rules:
Trim 50%-70% of the position after an initial leg up to reduce risk.
Trail the remainder using daily EMAs or weekly support to capture extended moves.
Let winners breathe, don’t sell too early just because it’s gone “far enough.”
The upside often comes from the next wave of momentum while the market confirms strength.
5) Market Context + Situational Awareness:
Works best when you’re trading leaders in hot themes with relative strength.
In choppy or uncertain markets, U&R entries off moving averages or pivots are far more reliable than chasing breakouts, hence the market we are currently in.
Patience and selectivity are so so important! Waiting for the market to tell me where the strength is before committing capital is an edge over others.
This system works across multiple timeframes:
- Daily/Swing trades for week+ setups
- Weekly for larger structural moves
- Intraday 15/30 min charts for precise entries
6) Personal Lessons & Edge:
RS first, setup second... I never trade a technical setup in isolation.
Stack layers of probability before entering: the more confirmations, the better.
Undercuts & reclaim entries = my bread and butter; this is where I catch the cleanest asymmetric trades.
Journaling and daily review refine the system over time, nothing is static.
This framework is why I can consistently find trades like $ASTS, $RDDT, $LUMN, $UMAC, $CIFR, and capture outsized moves without overexposing myself or chasing every headline!
I hope this helps visualize what I've been focusing on in this current environment.
Questions and concerns are encouraged, and any engagement is much appreciated. God bless!
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@ohiain Also do you utilise time stops, for situations after entry and the stock price squats?
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I'd say one of the most common questions I get asked is “Where do you place your stops?”
...and to that, about 99% of my initial stops go right to the low of the day on the entry day.
This is because that level carries real psychological and structural meaning. If I’m swing trading a breakout, the low of the breakout day is the clearest line in the sand the stock gives me to define my risk.
because that low is where buyers already proved themselves that day.
Price moved higher, demand quickly showed up, and the breakout thesis became valid. If price later trades back below that low, the observation is simple:
the breakout didn’t hold.
and at that point, I don’t want to hope or rationalize... I want to be out and looking for the next opportunity or re-entry.
A perfect example is my $RDDT swing that I held over last weekend for over 100%. My entry was over prior day highs off the 9 day, and the moment I was in, my stop went straight to the low of that breakout day.
If it failed, I was gone.
Spoiler alert... it didn’t, and because my risk was clearly defined, I was able to sit in the trade and let the trend work without second guessing.
Failed b/o? Great, I'm out quickly.
Successful b/o? I'm positioned for a potential winner.
The psychology here matters just as much as the technicals. Having my stop at a clear invalidation point removes emotion from the execution side of things.
I want to be very clear that I’m not managing trades based on P&L, I’m managing them based on whether my original thesis is still intact, and because of that, I gain an edge and a clear mind.
...and that peace of mind is what allows me to stay calm when volatility shows up.
The next question I always get is:
when and how do you adjust your stop once the trade starts working?
This is where a lot of traders either choke winners too early or give back far too much.
so once a trade starts working for me, my job shifts from defense to protection. I like trailing using a combination of the 9/21 EMA, higher lows or swing lows, and major intraday pivots.
After my first trim, I almost always move my stop to break even, because worst case, I’m out flat... and that’s exactly what happened with $CIFR this week.
I try very hard to give my winners room to breathe.
I don’t want to sell a good position just because it’s green. So once risk is protected, and I’ve built a cushion, I let the market decide how far it wants to go.
That’s where the real money is made (IN THE SITTING), not in perfect entries, but in allowing trends to persist without micromanaging them.
stops aren’t about being right all the time.
They’re about knowing exactly when you’re wrong, and accepting it quickly.
Define risk clearly.
Protect capital first.
...and let your winners work as long as they deserve to.
That’s the balance I’m always trying to strike!
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This is exactly how I apply the “pullback after a range move” concept with $JOBY today as an example and current execution.
Last week, $JOBY put in what looked like a potential wedge pop paired with an EMA cross back. That was my first signal that character might be shifting, but still not my entry.
The entry came today when price undercut and reclaimed the 15 pivot, stress tested the EMA cluster, and held. That’s where I stepped in (buying the RDR off the 15 pivot + 9 day, not chasing strength, but leaning into strength off defined structure.
Could I be early? Absolutely. That’s always the trade off with first pullback entries... but I didn’t take this blindly.
I stacked probabilities.
We had a prior range move within the base, a failed breakdown attempt, improving structure, and a reclaim of key pivots where buyers had shown up... and once price pushed toward NHOD in the morning, I trimmed and reduced exposure, managing my risk.
I don’t need to know what happens next, I just need to manage risk correctly.
If I’m wrong, I’m wrong small.
If I’m right and the theme continues to work, especially with $ASTS and $RKLB grinding higher, $JOBY should follow.
Relative strength at the theme level still matters.
I also looked closely at $ACHR vs $JOBY. Both are valid, but I preferred $JOBY here because the risk/reward fit my process with tighter invalidation.
This trade is a direct extension of how I identify pullbacks after a range move within a base. The higher high tells me sellers lost control. The first higher low is where I get paid for being patient (sometimes, I still take L's all the time lol).
...and add EMAs, volume behavior, and a clear pivot to lean against, and now I have a trade I can actually manage.
I don’t know what $JOBY will do tomorrow.
*cough, *cough... Nobody does, surprise!!
but I know my risk is defined, my thesis is clear, and my process is intact.
...because that’s all I ever try to control.
iain@ohiain
Weekly/Monthly charts I’m watching into EOY: $JOBY $DDOG $OPEN $QS All four are setting up weekly/monthly bases that could offer asymmetrical risk, each building structure right above key moving averages/pivot points and positioning for potential massive monthly breakouts. This is where I start paying attention. "the bigger the base, the higher in space" is true. $JOBY: Building a 5 week base above the 9 week. Buyers defended every dip, holding that 17 pivot tight. High volume accumulation off the right side of the base... exactly what you want to see when a name’s gearing up for a possible ATH push. Strong squat off the 9 week + reclaim = strong buying. Above 17, things can get real quick. $DDOG: A textbook 4 week base built right off the 9 week. The structure here is butter. Noticeable accumulation on the right side of the base + failed breakdowns fueling this new trend. This setup screams potential into EOY, a clean push through 200 would confirm my thesis. $OPEN: First retest of the 9 week since confirming its stage 2 breakout. Reclaimed IPO VWAP, that’s a massive shift in control from sellers to buyers. Volume pattern is ideal: spikes on moves up, quiet on pullbacks. That’s institutions building positions. Above 8 with strength, and it can get rippy fast. $QS: Down 86% from ATH, now squeezing right at IPO VWAP and 9 week. This is where new trends start, from forgotten charts and multi-year bases. High volume off the right side of the base is the signal. I’m long and willing to add to pullbacks within this new stage 2 trend. All of these names have one thing in common: Compression at key pivot points. and we know.. Compression → Expansion Tight weekly bases above rising EMAs with clean volume patterns are exactly what I look for going into a new momentum phase. I’m not predicting these moves, but I am preparing for potential in these names. I’ll use the weekly to identify structure, daily for entry triggers, and ride the wave higher while managing risk the same way I always do. If you’ve been following me for a while, go through my recent posts, I’ve broken down exactly how I trade these setups step by step. Take my advice with a grain of salt, because what works for me... might not work for you. But I will say... This is the playbook: Big bases. Clear structure. Defined risk. Repeat the process.
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Cade Arnel retweetledi
Media Release: One Nation to oppose Labor's rushed hate Bill
Labor’s proposed law to combat antisemitism could see a person jailed for up to five years for saying Australia’s the greatest country in the world.
One Nation leader Senator Pauline Hanson said Labor’s Bill, to be debated at an early sitting of Parliament next week, would be an unworkable mess.
“We don’t need new laws to protect Australians from antisemitism,” Senator Hanson said.
“We need to enforce existing laws, something the Albanese government – to its eternal shame – didn’t do to protect Jewish Australians from antisemitism.
“This bill has been very rushed, with only a day or so allowed for Parliamentary debate and a snap Senate committee inquiry that’s barely hours long. I’m reminded of the many changes made to legislation to address the problem of immigration detainees, and how Labor repeatedly got it wrong. I have no confidence this legislation – which amends the criminal code along with 15 other laws and eight regulations, and throws in a $1 billion gun buyback – will be any better. It will be a mess. Australians could be stripped of their freedom of speech and opinion, and their ability to express pride in their culture and nationality.
“This bill is fraught with all sorts of potential unintended consequences, which is always what happens when you use subjective language in legislation that is open to differing interpretations. For example, you could even go to prison for saying Australia’s the best country in the world because it could be interpreted as ‘disseminating ideas of superiority’.
“One Nation is going to oppose this bill. We will not support punishing law-abiding firearm owners as a scapegoat for Anthony Albanese’s failure to check rising antisemitism; we already have the toughest gun laws in the world.
“We will not support a vaguely-worded law that could put Australians in jail for making a patriotic statement. I very much fear Australia is heading down a path where we become like the United Kingdom, where police come to people’s homes and take them to jail for a social media post. I know Albanese would love that, because he’s so terrified of free speech, but One Nation will not stand for it.
“One Nation is prepared to act decisively to protect Australians from radical Islamic terrorism, but this isn’t the way. I call on all of my fellow members of Parliament to oppose this legislation until we can get it right.”
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I'm curious, when looking for a "setup," how would you rank the following concepts in order from most important to least?
- Fundamentals (company financials)
- Sector/Theme (macro groups & big trends)
- Leadership (relative strength)
- Technicals (price, volume & patterns)
- Narrative (the story)
All of these concepts play a role in my personal process, but for me, sector rotation/thematics is my personal #1, and fundamentals is my last (bc I'm more of a shorter-term trader).
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Cade Arnel retweetledi
Aussie swimming legend Dawn Fraser becomes emotional as she chronicles the horrors of hate that have been imported into Australia and slams the cowardice of the Albanese govt.
‘And when I see people with such disrespect burning our flag that I competed under. That soldiers fought under and many that lost their lives under.
You can be damn sure I will speak up because these people don’t deserve to live in this great country.’
We need to confront radical Islamic extremism now before it’s too late.
God bless you Dawn 🙌
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@Erin_Molan @Erin_Molan why is it that in Australia our AFL and NRL players are held more accountable for their actions than our politicians (eg.Albanese, Andrews, etc). Why does our media seem so hellbent on tearing sports people down, but the same focus does not apply to our Politicians.
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Albanese REFUSES to hold a Royal Commission… WHY?!
He denies he played a role and contributed to the Bondi Terrorist Attack… if this is the case, a Royal Commission could clear his name — he should WANT this!!
EPISODE LINKED
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Yes, Centuries is a Chinese-owned, Panama-flagged tanker per TankerTrackers and reports from Reuters, Le Monde, etc.
China has condemned the seizure as "theft and piracy," pledged economic support to Venezuela, and called for UN intervention, but no military countermeasures are announced in available sources.
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BREAKING NEWS: The US seized a ship belonging to a China-based oil company, it was reported today.
The Chinese ship, called Centuries, was snatched in an operation using military helicopters which illegally landed US Coast Guard officers on board.
In a classic “piracy on the high seas” operation, the armed officers went to the ship’s bridge, took the crew hostage, and gained control of the vessel.
The ship is NOT on the list of US sanctioned ships, the New York Times reported this morning. This makes the seizure illegal under US law as well as international law.
“The ship is flagged, insured, and unsanctioned — proving conclusively that the US couldn't care less about so-called ‘international law’,” Will Schryver, a popular US geopolitical commentator, said today.
The ship transports Venezuelan crude oil to China for refining.
The US is expected to now steal both ship and cargo, taking it to a US port, as happened with an oil tanker called Skipper, a week ago.
US government and media are using the word “confiscate” because it implies punishment for wrongdoing – except there was no wrongdoing. The ship was licenced and flagged and engaged in legal international business.
The move follows a statement by President Donald Trump that Venezuela’s oil was stolen from the United States. “We want it back. They took it from us illegally,” the president said.
This is despite the fact that oil would have been formed in the Mesozoic age, which ended 66 million years ago.
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Cade Arnel retweetledi
Big news, patriots! 🇦🇺🔥
Our exclusive Members Portal launches by Australia Day – your hub for policy engagement, community, and real action!
For those who can't contribute financially right now: Proof-of-Support token-based membership rolls out Feb 15. Earn your spot through dedication to the cause!
Let's build this together. Sign up for a monthly donation and lock in your membership! Who's in? 🫡 🇦🇺
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@markminervini That's why we follow you and not them, and try to learn as much as we can
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You gotta love these delusional ass clowns who point how obvious the market top or bottom in was in hindsight. Of course, you never hear from these people AT the top or the bottom. Lol.
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