Arsenal Stu

@LukeGromen too many unknowns to do anything for me, cash is king. And too many people who will insider trade changes to the status quo waaayyy before it hits the tapes.

Bessent un-sanctioned Russian oil AFTER WaPo reported Russia was helping Iran targeting US assets the way the US has been helping UKR target Russian assets... ...& yet Wall Street consensus overwhelmingly remains that "Bessent has everything under control." Fade that view, hard

😤"Chelsea cheated to achieve outcomes!" 🏆 "Abramovich has shown the club to have cheated their way into winning tournaments!" Simon Jordan insists #CFC's trophies under Roman Abramovich must come with an asterisk after PL breaches revelations! 👀

@michaeljmcnair kind of a stock versus your "flow" issue, if you get my drift.

@michaeljmcnair agreed-but there is still the shift of existing FX Reserves out of the $ post 2022 FX Reserve seizure-given this background it makes alot more sense for surplus nations to sell $ assets rather than Gold..at least until they have reached their desired Gold as a % of reserves

Gold and silver are not acting well in a period of rapidly rising geopolitical risks. We have an Iran War, Strait of Hormuz blockade, rising volatility. In the old framework, that setup should be close to ideal for gold. But once you understand what is now driving gold, this move makes perfect sense. Something fundamental changed after the US and Europe froze Russian reserves in 2022. For decades, surplus countries parked their excess savings in US dollar assets, mostly Treasuries. The freezing of Russian reserves combined with the current administration's explicit push to discourage foreign countries from parking excess savings in US financial assets, forced surplus countries to rethink where they store reserves. And those countries haven't changed their domestic policies that generate the excess savings, so those savings have to be placed somewhere. The result is that gold and silver have increasingly become the obvious “neutral” reserve assets. That’s why gold decoupled from the three factors that used to explain it…real interest rates, volatility, and liquidity. Now reserve accumulation flows have become the primary driver. That shift has a consequence I don’t think most investors have thought through. If gold is now primarily driven by reserve flows from surplus countries, then gold has become pro-cyclical. Reserve growth is driven by export revenues, trade surpluses, economic growth in surplus economies. When the global economy is strong and surplus countries are generating large export revenues, their excess savings grow, their reserve accumulation accelerates, and gold catches a bid. When that surplus generation is disrupted, the bid weakens or reverses. This is exactly what is happening with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The GCC countries are major reserve/gold buyers and now their export revenues are collapsing. They likely need to liquidate some reserves to cover fiscal obligations, and gold is one of their most liquid assets. Even if the reserve sales aren’t excessive yet, the market can see their reserve accumulation has stalled and probably reversed. That flow, which was a meaningful source of gold demand, has gone to zero at best. There are also secondary effects on other surplus economies. China is the world's largest oil importer. An energy shock of this magnitude slows Chinese growth, and compresses Chinese surpluses, which slows Chinese reserve accumulation. That same growth shock ripples through Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and the rest of Asia. The whole chain that has been driving gold higher, surplus countries generating excess savings that need a home outside the dollar system, is being disrupted by an event that in the old model would have been unambiguously bullish for gold. This doesn't mean the structural case for gold is broken. The dollar standard is still ending. Surplus countries still need an alternative to Treasuries and gold is still the most obvious destination. But it does mean gold is going to be more volatile along that structural trend than most people expect, and the volatility will correlate with global growth and surplus generation rather than with the old drivers. Gold rallies when surpluses expand. Gold sells off when surpluses contract. Even if the reason for the contraction is rising geopolitical risk that, under the old model, should have sent gold to the moon.

Comment: amid all the debate about Chelsea, the most serious point has been overlooked A now-sanctioned oligarch was able to manipulate English football through industrialised cheating - and this is barely addressed The meaning of the payments is as big independent.co.uk/sport/football…

At some point, senior Premier League execs have to offer a proper explanation in public for their leniency towards Chelsea. They owe an explanation to fans of clubs punished more harshly. They owe an explanation to those clubs who did abide by the rules. They have to offer some explanation as to why PSR breaches are deemed far more serious than acts of "deception and concealment". Yes, these are the offences of a previous regime at Chelsea. But inconsistencies run through the PL's defence and their reputation is damaged. They can’t hide from a controversy of this magnitude.

Never forget. Wenger was fighting against referee corruption and financial doping, and still came out with 3 league titles and the highest number of FA Cups ever. All this while playing the most beautiful football this league has ever seen. Simply, the greatest.

@TimesSport @martynziegler Martyn, us Football fans are relying on the few Journalists not bought and paid for to keep highlighting this 🙏

✍️ Just a fine for Chelsea’s cheating — no wonder some rivals are angry @martynziegler says the scale of blatant rule breaches during period in which the club won six trophies under Roman Abramovich is jaw-dropping ⬇️ #Echobox=1773689594" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">thetimes.com/sport/football…

@MiguelDelaney Miguel, us Football fans are relying on the few Journalists not bought and paid for to keep highlighting this 🙏

Chelsea "blatantly cheated and still have the trophies to show for it" There might be logic to the Premier League's decision given the new ownership self-reported but the outcome overlooks what it's actually about - putting on fair competition independent.co.uk/sport/football…

I think any progressive and ambitious Premier League club should now spend whatever they like and push the boundaries way past compliance. Because if you only receive a paltry fine for adding players who materially helped you win trophies then it's worth it. Was massively pro spending rules but clubs illegal spending prior to PSR isn't being punished at all and I bet those clubs are pissing themselves, all while clubs with the money to compete with them today are having to audit every fucking toilet roll, with promising home grown players being horsetraded like meat in order to comply with PSR. Clubs and supporters should always support rules which protect our clubs from themselves at times, but dishing out fines that some clubs can find from the back of the boardroom sofa while directly profiting from the players "illegally" purchased makes a mockery of the system.

This is the punishment for 36 undisclosed payments worth £47.5m over 11 years relating to player transfers. Reminder: the Premier League wanted Everton deducted 12 points for a £19.5m FFP overspend and didn’t think a fine was a suitable punishment

PGMOL clearing the Kai penalty in 5 seconds, but spending 2 minutes trying to search out reasons to disallow the Gyokeres goal deserves more scrutiny. It was Stuart Atwell, who denied the penalty, the same person who denied us against Fulham. Both will get an apology. Arsenal won't poke the bear because of retaliation (crazy I can write that and it be true). But it was shocking to watch them hunt for reasons to kill us (again).

@timstillman_ @gunnerpunner Stuart Atwell on VAR, bought and paid for.

@gunnerpunner We don’t want goals from corners. We want long extended periods looking for reasons to take goals away. We spend 1.5 seconds looking at penalty claims where a goal might be scored. Very weird direction this sport is being cheerled into.

Why was there a lengthy VAR check on the Gyokeres goal btw? What were they looking for? Spoiled the moment.

“Freedom is never free…what’s your alternative?” This guy on #bbcqt should be our Foreign Secretary. Perfectly articulates the case for action against Iran & why this is no time for dithering. I hope he stands for Parliament. I’d vote for him.

@iv_technicals bailed me out of my SOFR calls lol.

BRO!

stonks down, bonds down... with 2s getting smoked

@dampedspring it is not zero probability that monetary policy becomes a National Security issue.

Guess not. #TooEarlyPowell

@Con_Tomlinson yep - if people want the opposite they need to stand on and win a General Election on that mandate.

British people should not have to redefine our identity and make concessions to our culture to "make multiculturalism work." It's not our job to "integrate" people we never wanted here in the first place. If they don't like our way of life, they should leave.

@dampedspring and yet SOFR pricing in "inflationary" consequences.....

@themagic_tophat @Arsenal @MirrorFootball clickbait, block them.

First they went after Myles, calling him a “villain” after his wrongful red card was overturned. Now they’re calling Noni a cheat for being fouled. We all see what this is. @Arsenal needs to ban @MirrorFootball from their premises and sue these lying scumbags.