Arutha

India’s ban on the export of raw, white and refined sugar affects sugar availability in Sri Lanka. In 2025, India accounted for 50% of Sri Lanka’s 656,381 metric tonnes of sugar imports. While Sri Lanka produces its own sugar cane, the domestic supply of raw sugar is largely import dependent. Brazil, the world’s largest sugar exporter is Sri Lanka’s second largest source of imports – accounting for 25% of 2025 sugar imports. India’s sugar ban is meant to stabilise domestic prices in the face of rising production costs stemming from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Exports to US and EU are exempted from the ban, as are any government-to-government exports. Although Sri Lanka and India have a free trade agreement, sugar imports from India are subject to standard duties, as sugar is a highly protected industry. Sri Lanka sugar importers have assured a steady supply through alternate markets.

There's still time to sign up! Join us tomorrow to find out more. Register now - zoom.us/meeting/regist…

Join us as we launch our latest publication, Lanka Dispatch and map Sri Lanka's place in this fragmented and volatile world. Register now - zoom.us/meeting/regist… #lka #srilankaeconomy #middleeast

Join us as we launch Arutha's latest publication, 'Lanka Dispatch' and unpack the US-Israel war on Iran, recovery efforts following Cyclone Ditwah & trade resilience during Trump's Liberation Day Tariffs. Register Now! zoom.us/meeting/regist…

Fertiliser prices are going up. How does this affect Sri Lanka's food supply and you? - Agricultural production (rice, fruits and vegetables) would fall, and supply will reduce. - Supply of crops that are used to produce food (such as maize for egg and poultry production) will also reduce. - This will lead to increase in food prices. - There will be an increased risk of food security as nutritious food (especially sources of protein) becomes more expensive. - If the war persists, sourcing fertilisers will become much harder. This could affect cultivation in the Maha season which begins in October. Why are fertiliser prices going up? - 30% of global fertiliser transits through the Strait of Hormuz which is currently being blockaded by Iran and the US. Gulf nations are major producers of fertilisers, especially nitrogen-based fertilisers like urea. - This reduces the amount of fertiliser available for trade. - With the drop in supply, fertiliser prices have shot up. - Higher prices reflect not only the shortage of fertilisers, but also the higher shipping costs from rising oil prices and higher insurance premiums due to the war risk. - China, who is Sri Lanka’s main source of fertiliser imports and one of the world's largest fertiliser exporters, halted exports of fertiliser on 19th March, further reducing supply. Is it only Sri Lanka affected? No, many countries that depend on global supply chains for their fertiliser needs are affected – this includes countries like India and Vietnam. What is happening in Sri Lanka?

We're making it easier to stay informed. Get timely updates on Sri Lanka's economy straight to WhatsApp. From key developments to data-driven insights, follow our channel to stay updated. We analyse and provide clarity and context on news or policy decisions, making complex or technical developments understandable while highlighting the practical significance and potential risks. Follow the Arutha channel on whatsapp.com/channel/0029Vb…

Tea production fell by 14% in March 2026 due to prevailing dry and hot weather. Sri Lanka’s tea industry faces another issue. The wider Middle East region bought 52% of Sri Lanka’s tea in 2025 - generating ~$850 million of export revenue. This year, traditional shipping routes to its major markets in the Gulf are disrupted with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Fertiliser prices have shot up due to shortages, also a result of the closure of the Strait. Urea, the world’s most used fertiliser, has doubled in price from $380 per tonne to >$700 per tonne. GoSL increased the fertiliser subsidy for crops like tea to Rs 18,000 to help with the price shock. GoSL claims to have 100,000 MTs of fertiliser in stock. Industry professionals refute this claim. Price controls will not work with such constrained supply and global unavailability, instead possibly creating black markets that will drive prices up further. #lka #srilanka #middleeast #foodsecurity

Fertiliser shortages are already hitting Sri Lanka - and the situation could get worse. The US/Israel war on Iran is disrupting global trade routes, tightening fertiliser supply across Asia. What can be done right now? - Prioritise essential crops over less critical production - Use existing fertiliser stocks more efficiently - Strengthen negotiations with key suppliers like China - Reduce food wastage through better storage and transport backed by government mandates What you think Sri Lanka should be doing? Read more and comment below! arutharesearch.org/post/us-israel…

This post has been updated to reflect a correction: The Trump administration must now process $166 billion in refunds to companies in the US who paid the tariff – American consumers who bore the final cost of the increased tariff are not eligible for refunds. The ‘Liberation Day’ tariff package last year disrupted global trade significantly – including Sri Lanka. Sri Lankan exports were initially hit with a 44% tariff, then negotiated down to 20% in September 2025. The US is Sri Lanka’s largest export destination. Despite the tariff shock, Sri Lanka’s overall exports to the US increased by a marginal 2% in 2025. After mutiple changes, America’s Supreme Court struck down the tariff package in late February 2026. Following this, President Trump imposed a 10% tariff on all countries using alternate legal routes. He threatened to raised it to 15% the next day, however it is not yet in effect. The current tariff applicable to most imports is 10%. The new global tariff also faces legal and operational challenges.

@SajithCooray Thank you for pointing this out - we have reposted this with the correct figure.

@AruthaResearch $166 million? or is it $166 billion? I understand that media institutions in SL have a hard time with numbers but research think tanks surely know the difference between billions and millions.

Is Sri Lanka's food security under threat due to the US-Israel war on Iran? #lka #srilanka #middleeastwars

“Sri Lanka is in the best position in a very long time to withstand the oil shocks that hit us in the first quarter of this year” - @yolanifernando (Executive Director, Arutha) Read more: asia.nikkei.com/economy/sri-la…

During this session, Arutha highlighted emerging risks to Sri Lanka’s food security, including: - Disruptions to fertiliser and food imports following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz - While most of our Fertiliser is imported from China, China has reduced fertiliser exports to prioritise domestic production -Impact on domestic food production due to lack of fertiliser - Rise of food prices as a result of these pressures Arutha proposed key solutions during this discussion. @RegularReh @yolanifernando

'According to analysis by Arutha........economic impact will depend on how long the conflict lasts and whether it spreads further across the region. A short conflict lasting a few weeks could allow global supply chains to stabilise within months. A prolonged war could take years for global markets to regain stability.' Read more: ft.lk/front-page/Aru… #lka #srilanka #middleeast

Curious about the policies shaping economies? 🌍 @ODI_Global X Arutha Join our session featuring expert insights and career guidance for aspiring researchers. Limited slots available. Register here: forms.cloud.microsoft/Pages/Response…

Our Latest Publication, Lanka Dispatch is out now! Looking at the broader picture: mapping Sri Lanka's place in the world. Read more now: arutharesearch.org/post/lanka-dis…

Beyond China-Sri Lanka relations - mapping Sri Lanka’s place in an increasingly unpredictable global order. Coming your way: our newest publication, Lanka Dispatch #lka #srilanka