Tamil Nadu Weatherman@praddy06
Some common questions of common man (என் கேள்விக்கு என்ன பதிலில்) and the clarifications
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Kelvi 1: Cyclone Ditwah Weakened, then rains gone for Chennai ?
Bathil: Cyclone now is over land in Sri Lanka and expected to come into open seas there will intensification but at same time it has to fight the increasing shear and slight inflow of dry air. So it will be not as Cyclone when it nears Chennai and will be a Depression or Deep Depression. It does not change anything. From the start it was not a windy cyclone like Thane or Gaje or Vardah. So this does not change anything.
Kelvi 2: when will KTCC Rain Start ?
Bathil: KTCC (Chennai) will get bulk rains on 30th November and some rains on 29th.
Kelvi 3: Will there be high winds in KTCC ?
Bathil: No since it is coming as a weakened system winds will be 50/60 km/hr at max (Vardah had 120 km/hr, Gaja had 140 km/hr winds and Thane 150 km/hr winds)
Kelvi 4: How about Delta and other districts ?
Bathil: Once the Ditwah comes to open seas near Jaffna, it will try to regain some strength and this is the time (29th November) districts such as Nagai, Tiruvarur, Thanjavur, Karaikkal, Mayildauthurai will all get very heavy rains. Nearby districts such as Trichy, Perambalur, Ariyalur, Pudukottai will also get heavy rains. Once Ditwah climbs up, then other Cuddalore, Pondy, Villupuram, Kallakuruchi, Tiruvannamalai, Vellore, Ranipet nearby Salem, Namakkal too will get rains after that.
Kelvi 5: Why Ditwah Name is given ?
Bathil: The names from the List of North Indian Ocean storm names are already prepared after collecting names from countries in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea - Montha, Senyar, Ditwah (now given) and so on, the next cyclone will be named "Arnab" wow just miss, it would been a terrific cyclone considered its name.
Kelvi 6: Ithu Michaung Cyclone mathri rains varuma ?
Bathil: No chance Chennai got 400 mm rains in 24 hrs from Michaung and those type of rains is not possible from this system. We can divide this michaung quantum by 2.5.
Kelvi 7: KTCC, Vellore, Ranipet Pa groups ku December 1st happy ah iruppangala ?
Bathil: Rains in KTCC, Vellore, Ranipet will start on late 29 or 30th and if lucky it will extend into 1st December. If most places recorded over 150 mm then there is chance. But rains have to extend into 1st December for pa group to have their wish fulfilled.
Ithuku melayum, Nature wins Nature is unpredictable comment vanthuchu avalvuthaan. We also know this Nature is the winner always and Twist and turns happen. Weather prediction is probability based and with some bias. It can never be predicted 100% to perfection. Whatever best interpreting possible from our side is being updated.