Atlanta Fed

On May 14, the #GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q2 2026 is 4.0%: bit.ly/32EYojR. #ATLFedResearch Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website for the latest GDPNow nowcast: atlfed.org/46BOWkD.

The Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker edged down to 3.6% in April from 3.9% the prior month. For those not changing jobs, the Tracker also edged down in April to 3.6%, while the Tracker for those changing jobs declined to 3.8% in April from 5.0% in March. atlfed.org/4uKEyRj

May 13: We've updated our Market Probability Tracker following @BLS_gov's release of April's #CPI. View the #AtlantaFed update online now: atlfed.org/4tyMG6q #ATLFedResearch

While there is a broad-based slowing among some the near-term measures of underlying CPI inflation, all the year-over-year measures on the dashboard are still elevated relative to the FOMC's price stability mandate. atlfed.org/4uOYHG5

May 12: We’ve updated our Taylor Rule Utility data by incorporating #BLSdata in addition to updated nowcasts from the @ClevelandFed and Atlanta Fed: atlfed.org/4dEcnhb

The Atlanta Fed's sticky-price consumer price index (CPI)—a weighted basket of items that change price relatively slowly—rose 4.6% (on an annualized basis) in April, following a 2.4% increase in March. On a year-over-year basis, the series is up 3.1%. On a core basis (excluding food and energy), the sticky-price index rose 4.8% (annualized) in April, and its 12-month percent change was 3.0%. The flexible cut of the CPI—a weighted basket of items that change price relatively frequently—increased 17.6% (annualized) in April and on a year-over-year basis, the series is up 5.6%. atlfed.org/4dg6Dc3

May 11: We've updated our Market Probability Tracker following @BLS_gov's release of April’s #employment report. View the #AtlantaFed update online now: atlfed.org/48TFASI #ATLFedResearch

On May 8, the #GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q2 2026 is 3.7%: bit.ly/32EYojR. #ATLFedResearch Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website for the latest GDPNow nowcast: atlfed.org/46BOWkD.

Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 115,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3%, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. atlfed.org/4dbCc6L

May 8: We've updated our Labor Market spider chart to reflect March data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics: atlfed.org/42pQNGZ

The Atlanta Fed’s Unemployment Claims Monitor (UCM) provides timely insights into the state of the US labor force. While weekly movements can be volatile, there has been a steady decline in both initial unemployment and continued unemployment claims during the past several months. In the first week of May 2026, there were approximately 200,000 initial unemployment claims nationally on a seasonally adjusted basis. While this represents a slight increase compared to the previous week, the April 25 figure was the lowest level in decades. During the final week of April, Americans filed 1.8 million continued unemployment claims. On a year-over-year basis, continued unemployment claims have now fallen for 10 consecutive weeks. atlfed.org/4whs0CG

On May 7, the #GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q2 2026 is 3.7%: bit.ly/32EYojR. #ATLFedResearch Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website for the latest GDPNow nowcast: atlfed.org/46BOWkD.

On May 5, the #GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q2 2026 is 3.7%: atlfed.org/4cOmMXm. #ATLFedResearch Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website for the latest GDPNow nowcast: atlfed.org/4cSVKOG.

May 1: We’ve updated our Taylor Rule Utility data by incorporating #BEAdata in addition to updated nowcasts from the @ClevelandFed and @AtlantaFed: atlfed.org/4n9eqNE

While there is a broad-based slowing among some of the near-term measures of underlying PCE inflation, all the year-over-year measures on the dashboard are still elevated relative to the FOMC's price stability mandate. atlfed.org/4egwUJD

On April 30, the #GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q2 2026 is 3.7%: atlfed.org/4cXuI7o. #ATLFedResearch Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website for the latest GDPNow nowcast: atlfed.org/4ul3izx.

On April 29, the #GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q12026 is 1.2%: bit.ly/32EYojR. #ATLFedResearch Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website for the latest GDPNow nowcast: atlfed.org/46BOWkD.

Business executives expect higher costs and prices over the next year. atlfed.org/4w5fwhw

Download EconomyNow for up-to-date insights on wage growth, business uncertainty, labor reports, GDP, and more! atlfed.org/4vQjo5K

Firms’ inflation expectations for the coming year increased to 2.3 percent. Sales levels and profit margins compared to "normal times" increased, according to the Atlanta Fed’s latest Business Inflation Expectations survey: atlfed.org/4vHSJbn.