Atmos Lab

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$ASTS: And just like that 🫰 AST SpaceMobile has locked up 65% of the North American Market 🇺🇸 AT&T 🇺🇸 Verizon 🇨🇦 Bell 🇨🇦 Telus

$ASTS: This $30M award is a "prototype" under SDA's HALO Europa Track 2. So how much potential $ are we talking here? 1) A successful Track 2 demo can lead to additional task orders - repeat orders for additional exercises, new waveform/radio integrations, more coverage areas, higher availability, etc = "Low hundreds of millions over time" 2) If SDA/DoD decide AST’s commercial D2D/tactical concept meaningfully reduces risk for operational layers, the prize is in the tranches. SDA is already placing multi-billion-dollar satellite orders for Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture layers = "hundreds of millions over time" 3) AST frames the opportunity as a "data products as-a-service" using existing commercial infrastructure. If DoD procurement shifts toward buying commercial satcom service the program could be "in the multi-billion range over time"

$ASTS: 🚨 AST SPACEMOBILE AWARDED $30M PRIME CONTRACT BY US SPACE DEVELOPMENT AGENCY FOR HALO EUROPA PROGRAM Selection for Europa Track 2 Commercial Solutions highlights the capability of AST SpaceMobile’s technology to rapidly deliver resilient, direct-to-device tactical

@tottaway22 If I make a calculation: 40 BBs * $35mil = $1.4Bn and 5 launches 5* 85 mil (avg Glenn/Falcon) = $425mil. Total ~$1.8Bn I hope this to have happened but it seems huge. Imagine that even chips' tariffs have gone a few weeks before (supply cost secured).

I estimate based on language in the Q3 10q that $ASTS has now fully paid for ~40 Block 2 BBs including launch payments for 5+ launches.

$ASTS As of 12/31/25 estimated gross Capitalized Property & Equipment is $1.6b an increase of $435m from 9/30 above guide of $275-$325m implying a pull forward of spending While having ~$4b in cash AST has already spent ~$1.1b on Block 2 satellites & launch payments

@tottaway22 @StillPlaysCrick This is actually very bullish: ✔️ Launch cost is not a permanent margin drag ✔️ Unit economics improve automatically with scale ✔️ Incremental satellites after break-even are extremely profitable ✔️ Depreciation understates future cash generation

@StillPlaysCrick They capitalize & depreciate launch costs. The line in the 10q is “satellite materials and advance payments, satellites under construction, and advance launch payments.” From 10k description “Property and Equipment   We design and self-construct the BB satellites intended to

@tottaway22 @StillPlaysCrick The confusion comes from mixing two different perspectives: 1️⃣ Accounting definition (GAAP / balance sheet) vs 2️⃣ Cash deployment / near-term build-out economics The 10-K has how costs are capitalized on the balance sheet, not how cash flows behave in early vs late deployment.

@JoshGregersen @thekookreport Why this distinction is critical 1️⃣ “Average” ≠ “Marginal” In capital-intensive infrastructure, CFOs often quote: Average cost at full scale, not cash cost per unit today Average cost=Total satellitesTotal/constellation capex

@AtmosLab @thekookreport On the last earnings call the CFO said, “We continue to estimate that the average capital costs, including direct materials and launch costs for our constellation of over 90 Block 2 Bluebird satellites, will fall in the range of $21 million-$23 million per satellite.”

🚨🚨 $ASTS WEEK IN REVIEW🚨🚨 ASTS once again attempts to scare everyone into selling. The Company is raising mountains of cash and expands its stated uses of proceeds. The future looks brightest right as its pitch black - why pitch black? FM-1 blocked out the sun. But it

@JoshGregersen @thekookreport ❌ It is NOT: The near-term cost for the first 45–60 satellites The marginal cost per satellite on early launches The cash cost per satellite if deployment stops at 45–60

@JoshGregersen @thekookreport What the CFO actually means (correct interpretation) ✅ The $21–23M figure is: A fully averaged, steady-state, at-scale capital cost per satellite, amortized across a ~90+ satellite constellation, including launch.

@JoshGregersen @thekookreport $21–23M per Block-2 satellite, this figure refers to: Satellite hardware & materials Assembly & integration Testing and quality control Factory overhead allocated per unit Yield improvements at scale (“mature production”) It is not an all-in deployed cost.

@AtmosLab @thekookreport Yes, it’s much too conservative. I am saying the satellite production cost in the low 20s/satellite includes average launch cost/satellite. That means you’re underestimating current funding by nearly $1bn. And again, that also doesn’t include expenses already prepaid.

@JoshGregersen @thekookreport The $22M does NOT include: 🚀 Launch services (Falcon 9, New Glenn, etc.) Insurance Launch integration fees Ground segment / network capex Spectrum / regulatory costs Launch is always disclosed and modeled separately.