Aurspire_official

Why BTC trend following strategies fail in certain market regimes newsletter/article: aurspire.beehiiv.com/p/why-btc-tren…

@trader_koala Return structure was shaky from the start. But the overall environment and participation structure isn’t to bad. Model-based not financial advice

bitcoin:native Don't love that the peace deal is what's driving this move. Feels more like a relief rally than a true trend shift. It's been "peace is on, peace is off" for the past month. Unless we get a weekly close above 65.5k, waiting for sub 60k

BTC's return structure is very unstable. Learn more about what this means here: aurspire.beehiiv.com/p/monday-btc-m…

BTC Structure signals preceded 2 real drawdowns — in real time. May 26th - Macro trend structure weakened. - 10%-15% drawdown afterward. Jan 14th - Return structure turned fragile. - 15%-20% drawdown afterward. Not a coincidence, not prediction. Live regime process → @Aurspire Model-based, not financial advice.

Same BTC Crowd, different behavior BTC's participation regime remains the same. What actually changed is the overall behavior of the same regime. This participation regime is more coherent than before.

@CryptoMichNL Model-based, not financial advise

@CryptoMichNL I’ve watched BTC structure for months: Michael Saylor was not main catalyst. The structure started degrading prior to Michael Saylor’s strategy exit. I’ve personally used structure to avoid the past two btc drawdowns.

This is 100% on point. If Michael Saylor becomes such a big 'threat' for #Bitcoin, then Bitcoin itself wasn't meant to be. Ultimately, it's a free market, meaning that anybody should be able to do anything with the underlying asset. The markets will value risks as they value them. To me, I think we're looking at an extreme version of fear in current market conditions and are overvaluing the overall impact of Michael Saylor on $BTC.

@KillaXBT Huge bulls and bears don't seem viable right now. The structure is more stable then prior bear.

$BTC With the 14th approaching, paying close attention to the narrative will be crucial in assessing what is likely to unfold over the remainder of this month. If a bullish narrative emerges, a reversal after the 14th becomes likely. Of course, this is simply based on a pattern that has been repeating over the past 10 months.

@eliz883 For daily time frame, BTC structure has reorganized.

$BTC On the H12 chart, it is crucial that the area highlighted in red holds. As long as the price continues to defend this area as support, the most likely scenario remains a recovery towards higher levels and a possible retest of the next resistance levels. The reaction seen following the dip below 59k shows that demand has emerged in that area and that buyers are attempting to regain control of the market. Conversely, a clear break below the red box and the main support level would turn the current rebound into a mere temporary relief rally. In that case, the short-term bullish scenario would be invalidated and the market could return to seeking liquidity at lower levels. For now, the message is simple: above the red zone, we can talk of a recovery and higher prices; below the red zone, the scenario changes and the entire context must be reassessed.

Trend following has an edge right now.

@Washigorira The return structure is reorganized into a more stable regime compared to the bear.

What if #Bitcoin was already bottoming? Many are looking for the exact cycle low. I'm looking for a bottom structure to form. Bottom ≠ Cycle low.

$BTC market structure reorganized into a more stable regime.

@rektcapital This is a reposition from the same recent participation crowd, bots, or humans.

#BTC One could make a case for Seller Exhaustion on this recent bout of Bearish Acceleration Bitcoin crashed right into the ~$60,000 historical demand area (purple) on high sell-side volume Previous crashes which occurred on high seller volume in this Bear Market actually preceded temporary local bottoms to kickstart limited rallies of relief before additional macro downside over time Therefore, this $60k historical demand area is very likely a weakening support so while a short-term rebound could make sense... Over time price is likely to breakdown to new 2026 lows The most important level are the February 2026 lows and if they act as resistance then $60k may not be able to prop price up for too long $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin

@KillaXBT The current structure is similar to that of late 2018 and 2019 for the price structure. However, participation and continuation quality structure don't agree. Operationally, the market may behave slightly differently in the short term relative to expectations.

Let’s be completely objective. $BTC below the quarterly open is bearish. If the quarterly low holds, a move back to the quarterly open remains possible. However, if the quarterly low is lost, the next area of interest is the CME gap around 54K, followed by the July 2024 low.

I don't think the 4-Year-Cycle is dead. It exists as a operational concept, but the current continuation-quality structure is more unstable than in prior years. In terms of price structure, it is similar to that of 2018 and 2019 currently. Not financial advice, just another perspective.

@KillaXBT Waiting patiently.

Model-based opinion: Perfect entries and exits for BTC trend following don't exist.

@seth_fin higher potential on my side given continuation quality isn't the best. Typically when it's between range of .6 and .8, higher drawdowns and volatility are likely. Current BTC market is similar to 2018-2019

Should we be concerned about $BTC SUB 60K liquidation?

BTC's structure currently is not good for trend followers. It's not the end of the world. I've run an algorithm on $BTC for now 2 years with different variations. A rolling percentile range between .6 and .8 typically leads to higher chances of more volatility and drawdowns. I don't care about direction much, more about the chances of trend following viability. Right now, trend following doesn't work. But if you have a different perspective on the current market, I would be glad to hear.

From my side, higher drawdowns are likely in this environment. A period that is similar historically is late 2018 and 2019. on the graph you see risk elevated at least for continuation quality. This doesn't mean it will follow the same exact behavior. Model-based, not financial advise.