Axel Merk

In 1971, Nixon "temporarily" closed gold window. In 2008, central banks "temporarily" went into crisis mode. I'm temporarily skeptical it will all end well.

@Claudia_Sahm The bigger issue is that Waller has been poisoning the atmosphere w regional Fed Presidents federalreserve.gov/newsevents/spe…

Can anyone think of something that happened since January that might have made Waller more hawkish? WSJ Editorial Board seems to have missed it.

If you look closely at the base of the flagpole, you’ll see it’s had some repairs. The pole broke in a storm, and I brought it back with a custom sleeve to reinforce the base.

For Memorial Day, I “upgraded” the flag on the hill adjacent to our property by putting up a larger one. You’ll also notice the tractor in the background — servicing the flag doubles as clearing and mowing the access road, which also serves as a fire access path.

@RainerO459840 @gilmeydan @aviationbrk the lady got spirit.

@gilmeydan @aviationbrk Alongside the many "Aaaahs!" she repeatedly shouts in Austrian slang "Alter!" (= dude). And "Leck mich am Arsch!" (= kiss my ass). And after landing: "Ich lebe noch. Das ist die Hauptsache." (= I'm still alive, that's the main thing).

🚨 WATCH: A paraglider gets hit by a Cessna 172 near the Austrian town of Zell am See. The paraglider was able to pull her rescue parachute and land safely shortly after the incident on Saturday. According to police, the 44-year-old Austrian had started from Schmittenhöhe in the direction of Piesendorf. Above the Pinzgauer Hütte, she collided at 1:15 p.m. with the Cessna piloted by a 28-year-old. The pilot of the Cessna, which flew from the Glemm Valley in the direction of Zell am See, was able to land the aircraft safely at Zell am See Airport. Video: sab_thi

@3crowns21 @JeffreyT1 try to visualize what you hear - use the pause button to digest. You might enjoy this lecture - not focused (or even touching on) audiobooks, but lots of ideas on how to actually retain information that one comes across. youtube.com/watch?v=IlU-zD…

@AxelMerk @JeffreyT1 Axel keeps count! A visual learner, like me, retains no information from audio books. You are greatly blessed.

@JeffreyT1 thanks for covering the 'dying of the dad book'. I've "read" 174 books since 2018 from audible - most of them 'dad books' based on your definition. Before, I bought physical books - some of them I even read. Audible has made "dad books" accessible.

@NickTimiraos indeed. the omissions of not praising Bernanke, Yellen or Powell speak volumes.

Key moments from Kevin Warsh's swearing-in at the White House: 1. Trump tells Warsh to be "totally independent." "Don't look at me. Don't look at anybody." 2. Two minutes later, he gives some suggestions by laying out what he's looking for: a booming economy needn't be cooled, and "economic growth doesn't mean inflation." "We want it to boom. We want it to be like nobody has ever had before because we do have some debt we'd like to take care of." 3. Trump suggests the committee will fall in line. The Fed's other policymakers "make their own decisions, but they'll be listening to Kevin all the way" — even those "from a somewhat different persuasion." 4. Greenspan, not Bernanke. Warsh reached back to Greenspan, sworn in at the same spot in 1987, and vowed to lead "with energy and purpose, just the way Chairman Greenspan did." No mention of Ben Bernanke—the chair Warsh served under for all five years as a governor.

goodness - how much hate there is on social media... I do think these quotes are relevant. Clearly written by a speechwriter, but they are important, set the stage. And Trump did not edit the speech - that's just as noteworthy. His off script remarks were funny - and the reference to the stock market is typical Trump and should not be interpreted as meddling with the Fed.

@AxelMerk As If! Has the grifter in chief ever told the truth?

"I want Kevin to be totally independent. Just do your own thing" -- Trump in the swearing in ceremony of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. c-span.org/event/white-ho…

to be clear, Warsh has talked highly of Volcker in the past.

Warsh, in his first speech as Fed Chair, references Alan Greenspan's contributions -- not those of his successors. Not coincidentally, I would think, Warsh has been critical of Bernanke's, Yellen's and Powell's policies. He only says he's known 5 of the former Fed Chairs, some closely (Paul Volcker being the fifth)

Trump's speech is on Fed independence. Off script, Trump links Warsh to the stock market - I trust Warsh felt uneasy about that as it's not the Fed's role to manage asset prices.

@NickTimiraos @judyshel Trump's speech for Kevin Warsh's inauguration focuses on Fed independence. x.com/AxelMerk/statu…

Nick, Judy is right on pointing to your bias. In fairness, you've had less bias in your most recent writings. Your quotes are correct, but you leave out what Trump has said since: ""I'm going to let him do what he wants to do. He's a very talented guy, he's going to be fine, he's going to do a good job"" Trump is a politician with a political message. And a casual observer might jump to the conclusion that Warsh was indeed hired to lower rates. But Warsh is no Stephen Miran. Warsh, in his confirmation hearings referenced that more work needs to be done to combat high inflation - that doesn't sound like a guy hired to cut rates.

Nick, you are usually more guarded in your commentary to not seem biased by your political preferences, but here you slip. By demeaning the incoming Fed chairman as “the man Trump hired to cut rates,” you show your disdain for the process of choosing the head of our nation’s central bank, which includes a nomination hearing before the Senate, being successfully voted out of committee, and then being subjected to a full Senate vote for approval. I presume you were equally cynical about the similar process through which Lisa Cook became a Fed governor, yet you have supported her right to be there with righteous indignation against her detractors. What do you even mean in asking whether Warsh will “have the political backing” to bring about a reduction in interest rates? Politics among the 12 voting members of the monetary policymaking committee who make interest rate decisions? I thought the priceless independence of the central bank was based on maintaining their nonpartisan intellectual framework for conducting monetary policy. Or do you think Congress is exerting influence over monetary policy? Some would argue that the Constitution requires exactly that in empowering Congress to “regulate the money”—yet you don’t seem to support the obligation of Congress to regulate the money with the same approach they took to establishing unvarying official weights and measures for the nation. Perhaps you just assume that monetary policymakers routinely cower at criticism from powerful political figures. But this is a matter of personal integrity; you should not project your own tendencies onto other individuals.

yes and no. He sets the agenda, but the regional Fed Presidents in particular are fiercely independent. If they want to make fools out of themselves commenting live on economic data releases, he can't stop them. However, he can set a different tone and convince them. FWIW, Powell tried. And failed. But Powell and Warsh are very different - Warsh has a coherent framework that he can articulate. And he can call the shots on important stuff - like holding press conferences. And, notably, opting not to hold one. Or the FOMC statement. He can radically shorten it - and very well might.

@AxelMerk @NickTimiraos Not he doesn’t, he sets the agenda

Kevin Warsh's theory of the Fed: deter inflation the way you deter war—by being so credible you never have to fight. "We can avoid wars if we're prepared for one. Same thing is true with inflation." An actual war just complicated the metaphor. The agenda he built to land the job now has to win over 18 colleagues he didn't pick and can't replace. wsj.com/economy/centra…

and just in case the bots following me don't get it: this is sarcasm. and not investment advice.

"The dividend yield on the S&P 500 is on the verge of an all-time low...only a whisker above their lowest ever, in 2000" 🤷‍♂️ That can't possibly mean anything - this time is different! 😅 wsj.com/finance/stocks…

@FreemanWSJ @WSJopinion “Bezos thinks the U.S. tax code should be even more progressive.” Progressive taxation cements the lead, but discourages climbing the economic ladder. Wealth does not imply wisdom on economic policy.

Bezos, Billionaires and the Age of AI Abundance wsj.com/opinion/bezos-… via @WSJopinion