Best Ball Data Muse

Round 2 Dashboard is now live on BBMPortfolio. - Track all your advancing teams for Week 15 - Full roster details, builds, stacks, projections - ROI calculator through the playoffs - Week 15 player exposures Great for an early read on where you stand heading into BBM Round 2.

@svlasis1 Good question- two things happening here I think. 1- Drafting in the 4 slot in 2023 and 2024 means you likely drafted Tyreek Hill or Ja'Marr in historic years, pulling the average up 2- the 1.04 is less of a consensus lock. Player pool more diverse = less correlated failure

@BBDataMuse Wonder why fourth has the highest win rate

Getting the first pick in best ball may be cursed. Take a look at BBM advance rate by draft slot for the last 5 years. A lot of bad injury luck baked into this, but still shocking to see how bad the #1 spot has been over such a long stretch (9.9%!)

The exception to this list is Christian McCaffrey in 2022. 28% of lobbies drafted him first overall that year instead of Jonathan Taylor. 20.3% of those teams advanced, and CMC finished as RB2 (behind only Austin Ekeler). More historical analysis and a new site coming soon.

Check out the consensus 1.01 picks for the last 5 years. Crazy how heavily concentrated first pick exposure has been, especially last year. 92% of lobbies drafted Ja'Marr Chase first overall in 2025. This year, Gibbs/Bijan will likely make up 90%+ of 1.01s

Some context on the data: 2021–2025 uses BBM average ADP. 2026 uses UD pre-draft ADPs as of this morning. So- slightly different markets, but still a meaningful snapshot of the 2026 ADP landscape.

There are more RBs going in the first 5 rounds of 2026 best ball drafts than any year since 2021. The market is moving away from Zero-RB / Hero-RB after two straight years of early-RB builds smashing.

@bdelpriore2 Ayomanor wasn't too far down the list. Initial ADP: 226 > Current ADP: 211.2

@BBDataMuse Shocked ayomanor isn’t on here

Biggest ADP movers in the first ~36 hours of pre-draft Underdog best ball. Love seeing where the market disagrees with UD's initial ranks, even this early.

@westydoggy Good callouts- neither were in UD's initial top 240 which is why they didn't make the list. KC Concepcion: 151.9 ADP Nick Singleton: 186.1 ADP

@BBDataMuse KC Concepcion and Nick Singleton

@Diablo_II I wrote down these ideas for the website right after BBM5 ended last year. Not everything made the final cut, but looking back, I’m really proud of how much of this vision became real. Incredibly grateful for everyone's support. Super excited to keep building.

With Round 2 of BBM wrapping up, BBMPortfolio.com is done for the season. @Diablo_II has you covered from here. Huge thank you to everyone who used the site and shared feedback. More tools and content coming in the offseason. Good luck to everyone still alive!

Still wouldn’t trade it for the world. Yesterday was the most fun sweat I’ve had since last year’s Week 15. Looking like I’ll advance 3/31 entries. Honestly just happy to still be alive heading into Week 16.

Yesterday was a reminder how cruel best ball is, and how hard BBM is to win. You can draft well all summer and still lose to someone who just loves Kyle Pitts and Trevor Lawrence. 1,600+ people max entered this year. Over 1,000 of them won’t have a single finals team.

After the early window, the median simulated cutline to advance to Round 3 is 160.3 The 90th percentile cutline is 170.0 If you're projected above 170, you're in good shape. Projections on the site are updated through the 1pm games.

Projections & sims on the site have been updated to reflect early window inactives. I'll update actuals and rerun advancing sims three times today: after the early window, after the late window, and after SNF. Happy sweating!

@JerLevine @JewishMcCaffrey @Underdog @Diablo_II Appreciate that, Jeremy. I'm definitely open to exploring. I reached out to TJ to connect more directly. Thanks again!

@JewishMcCaffrey @Underdog @Diablo_II @BBDataMuse We would absolutely love to. @Diablo_II @BBDataMuse if you’re open to exploring please lmk!

Respectfully, @Underdog. Do the right thing and hire @Diablo_II and/or @BBDataMuse for Best Ball and Draft Games.

Seeing a lot takes that drafters should've thrown strategy out the window and drafted more Kyle Pitts this summer, and I agree. We also should've: - bought Apple in 1990 - loaded up on Bitcoin in 2010 - faded every player who tore their ACL Weird how nobody did that.

@JustinHerzig Using conditional advance probabilities, Kyle Pitts teams project to make up ~47% of BBM semifinal teams right now, despite being rostered on only ~9% of quarterfinal entries.

Anyone have guesses for what percent of teams in the BBM semis will have Kyle Pitts?

Entry advance probabilities on the site are now updated to reflect "the Kyle Pitts Game". Finished players use actual scores, remaining Sunday/Monday players are simulated. Here’s my best Kyle Pitts team (I only have two).

@ldrumhiller Good catch- you're right. FIELD% was accidentally pulling advance rate instead of field exposure. It's fixed now. Appreciate the callout!

@BBDataMuse Hey, love the tool! Just a heads up that on the Round 2 Dashboard, it is showing a players advance rate in the FIELD % column in the exposure reports. I was manually doing comparisons of my exposure vs the field for TNF and noticed something seemed off. EXP % column looks right.

Round 2 Dashboard is now live on BBMPortfolio. - Track all your advancing teams for Week 15 - Full roster details, builds, stacks, projections - ROI calculator through the playoffs - Week 15 player exposures Great for an early read on where you stand heading into BBM Round 2.