B Harwell
307 posts

B Harwell
@BCH_Wealth
CEO | Founding Partner @ BCH Wealth. Challenging the status quo of traditional Wealth Management. #BCHalkTalk #BCHbetter
1827 Walden Office Square Katılım Temmuz 2017
161 Takip Edilen82 Takipçiler
B Harwell retweetledi

The ETF Revolution ft. Christian Magoon, CEO of Amplify ETFs youtu.be/AOs98rs4RBQ?si… via @YouTube

YouTube

English

BCHalk Talk w/ 4 time Best Dressed recipient & consumer guru @AdamRy_n @workweekinc State of the Consumer feat. Adam Ryan from Workweek youtu.be/iNy8kwUIDDE?si… via @YouTube

YouTube
English


I was able to snap this pic of him rounding first after that bomb.
Thinking about going into photography on the side.
Know what I mean?

UIC Baseball 🔥⚾️@UIC_Baseball
A monster week for Terrick Thompson-Allen👀 📰 uicflam.es/ae4c31 #ChicagosCollegeTeam
English

Brilliant, Genuine & Tan. Recent BCHalk Talk with triple threat @Bob_Iaccino. #BCHbetter #Gold #SPX #Tariffs youtube.com/watch?v=DeZHRZ…

YouTube
English

Tariff discussions have sped up the market sell-off, not sparked it. A weakening consumer, rising interest rates, and an overstretched SPX valuation—these levels are justified. If you’re only now adjusting your 2025 SPX forecast downward, you’re part of the issue. #BCHbetter @briangbelski
English


The tariffs are clearly not being received well in the market, but based on the current market we’re about to have the worst 3 day period in S&P 500 history.
Why is this crash happening so fast?
It’s all about how trading has evolved. In the past, options, contracts to buy or sell assets at a set price, were mostly settled quarterly. That gave the market time to absorb changes. But in 2005, weekly options were introduced, and by 2022, we had daily options on the S&P 500. Now, traders can make big moves in a single day, so small news can trigger massive swings.
Then there’s the VIX, the “fear gauge” that measures expected market volatility. VIX options let investors bet on how wild the market might get, not just on actual stock prices. It’s like a derivative of a derivative, adding another layer of complexity. When traders react to bad news with these leveraged bets, the drop becomes even more dramatic.
This is why we’re experiencing a 15% drop in 3 trading days.
But it’s not always been bad. This same speed can work in reverse. The rapid trading mechanisms that accelerate crashes can also fuel rapid rebounds. We saw this in March 2020 when the market tanked on COVID news but rebounded just as quickly when stimulus packages were announced. The faster the fall, the faster the potential recovery because the mechanisms that drive fear can also drive optimism.
Understanding these dynamics helps make sense of why modern crashes feel so sudden. It’s not just fear driving the drop, it’s how fast we can act on that fear.
English


Building a $200M project for a developer/management company means $40M in invested capital, of which $4M from developer itself and $36M from investors & $160M from the bank. Developer charges 10% GC fee during 2 year development ($20M). Once built and time to lease, developer becomes manager and charges 2% annually ($4M). After full occupancy, investors get first 6% yield after fees, then 80/20 to developer after that. Any proceeds from eventual sale 80/20 to developer as well. So, 8 year time-line start to finish...developer puts in $4M, sells for $240 to REIT... that must deploy capital. Developer/Manager walks away with $76M. Developer wins, investors lose.
English

Please make this make sense:
There's investors out there today looking to buy land.
Once they find it, they have big and highly-paid teams that will spend years working with a city to get permits to build a project on that land.
They will line up financing, deal with years of construction, coordinate with countless vendors, including surveyors, civil and structural engineers, architects, attorneys, etc.
They'll deal with delays, a train of non-stop surprises, change orders, and fluctuations in the macroeconomic environment.
Finally, after several years, they will finish their $200M project, and then turn to leasing.
They'll work with brokers to market their property in hopes of achieving their rent projections.
Then, when all is said and done, and if all goes well -- they will achieve the rents that will get them the $10,500,000 net operating income they hoped for, or a 5.25% annul return..
Yes, all that work to get to a 5.25% Cap.
Stupid question:
Why not avoid all that craziness and just go buy a 5.5% cap property today!?
English

2AM thoughts....
Unpopular Tax Reform -
The US Debt is currently at around $36T with no clear solution in sight. Any business or household in this situation would file for bankruptcy, but a US default would be worse than continuing to print money. How do we develop a plan short, mid & long term to chop away at this debt to get control over inflation, interest rates, the value of the USD, etc.?
The 2AM Act -
1) US Treasury Bonds | Longer Duration = Tax Free
The bond duration multiplied by 2 would be the percentage of that bond that is completely tax free.
Incentivizes long term US investment, and pushes longer dated interest rates lower.
Flattens the yield curve, allowing for more control by the Fed in times of high or low inflation.
Creates more control of corrupt municipal bond supply, forcing local governments to issue short duration debt and refinance every 3-5 years. Allowing for a truer rating of municipal bonds.
2) Long Term Capital Gains
Increase By 15%
3) Remove Cost Basis Step Up
Gains would be realized at death, gift or sale.
4) Estate Tax Limit & Reform
Let the Tax Cuts & Job Act limit expire, thus cutting the limit in half.
Ways to increase your “Gift Tax” limit -
Extra $20M Tax Free - If placed in a 20 Year US Treasury Bond and held to duration.
Extra $20M Tax Free - If used to start a business in a specific industry.
That industry is decided by the US Government each year, depending on infrastructure needs and employment shortages.
Heavily audited annually, using AI.
@elonmusk @realDonaldTrump #USD #inflation #debt
English









