Khalid Osman
168 posts

Khalid Osman
@BLueMix77
Million-mile vision, one step at a time.





The Trump Administration's involvement in Sudan, the Horn, the GERD, etc is all predicated on the notion that Trump has the trust and respect of all the Gulf states, who are themselves the ones driving the conflicts, politics, and economics across the Horn. If that is no longer the case, and the US has just abandoned its influence and leverage with the Gulf, then Washington has most certainly lost its leverage across the Horn as well. Trump has been squandering this leverage since he came into office, but the Iran war could well be the beginning of the end of US influence there. That writing has been on the wall for a while already and its testament to the fact that the US Quad mediation in Sudan has been essentially stuck with no forward momentum since last October. Increasingly, Gulf states have been pursuing their own objectives across the Horn, not just Sudan, but in Ethiopia and Somalia as well, without consulting with or seeking a green light from Washington--and in spite of having an open and ongoing dialogue with senior US officials. It's hard to see the Administration caring much about lost influence in the Horn in the short term--and Im sure many senior officials will likely be happy to just let local or Gulf actors try to sort out the rats nest of competing interests and ambitions. Their interests have only ever really been counterterrorism and freedom of navigation in the Red Sea. As long as those interests are met, and the US will be happy to work through local or regional partners as necessary, then I can very quickly imagine a much diminished role for the US across the region, including any efforts to mediate current or future conflicts. For the Gulf, lets see how long it takes for them to turn their focus back to the Horn once things settle down for them at home. Its too early to say whether the current KSA-UAE rapprochement will hold and whether it will extend to the Horn, but its clear that unbridled competition between them in Africa is bad for Africa from all perspectives: political, economic, security. But the fact is, they are rapidly becoming both the war enablers and the peacemakers all at the same time. Its impossible to see Trump making a credible case to anyone in the region that he is still the President of Peace. This tweet captures all the angst, anger, and frustration of a region that has been dragged into a conflict not of their making and makes me wonder whether they will ever trust this Administration again to mediate between them or dictate outcomes to them? I somehow doubt it. Which means that the rupture that Canada's PM talked about is not just in the trans-Atlantic alliance but could well extend deep into the Arab world.

















