@thinkingshivers "share with" likely elicited that. The models likely tend toward humour when asked to prepare something to share (ie, to make something "shareable".. as like a social media post)
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Brenden Sommerhalder
18.7K posts
Brenden Sommerhalder
@BSommerhalder
Information integrator. President, MQO Research.
K'jipuktuk / Halifax, NS Katılım Ekim 2010
2.6K Takip Edilen3.1K Takipçiler
@cadwaveanalysis @RealAlbanianPat @CDNprojections You all are nerds of the highest order.
Respect. 🤜🤛
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What was the geography behind Pierre Poilievre's upset loss in Carleton in April? In short, a broader shift we've seen in Ottawa.
Ottawa, in the last couple of elections, both federally and provincially, have shifted away from the Conservatives. It just happens that now that trend has begun to spill over into the furthest exurbs and suburbs of Ottawa.
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Another showing that makes me incredibly proud. From our dedicated telephone interviewers through to our data analytics and QA teams -- keep up the great work. It's important that we continue to prove that while polling isn't easy, it can be done well.
Polling Canada@CanadianPolling
Overall polling miss in Newfoundland and Labrador! MQO performed the best with the lowest average error and had both PCs and Liberals within their margin of error, while Cardinal had the PCs in theirs and are just shy of the Liberals MQO got the closest to the Liberal vote share Cardinal got the closest to the PC and NDP vote shares
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@RobertDwyer86 @RealAlbanianPat @MQOResearch We released it as soon as voting stations closed tonight. mqoresearch.com/nl-poll-method…
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@RealAlbanianPat @MQOResearch @BSommerhalder MQO should publicly release that poll as a victory lap tbqh
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Congratulations to @MQOResearch and @BSommerhalder on being the most accurate in this election!
Charestiste🇨🇦🍁@RealAlbanianPat
When I plug in the latest MQO Research Newfoundland & Labrador poll PC is up by 2 seats. The upcoming NL election is going to be very competitive
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Newfoundland PC just fucking won a majority government???
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@RealAlbanianPat It was great to meet you -- and it will surprise none of your followers to know that you asked one the best questions asked by any attendee at the conference. 🤝
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I will be the only underage person to attend the conference!
Charestiste🇨🇦🍁@RealAlbanianPat
I am here attending the CRIC conference tomorrow btw
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Brenden Sommerhalder retweetledi
Listen to MQO's @BSommerhalder discuss electoral reform and our proportional representation simulation with @TVeinotteShow (@ 18:00 mark): seekyoursounds.com/podcasts/the-t… #elxn45 #ElectoralReform #Canada #ProportionalRepresentation
Nova Scotia Today with Dan Ahlstrand@NSToday957
Listen live: player.halifax.citynews.ca #thetoddveinotteshow
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What are your thoughts about Canada's electoral system?
MQO Research@MQOResearch
"No more blue wall, red wall: How electoral reform could stop regional election sweeps" We were happy to help make Proportional Representation (PR) more concrete by simulating #elxn45 results as PR for @CanadianPress halifax.citynews.ca/2025/05/14/no-…
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Such a pleasure to collab with some of the brightest & most strategic minds from right across the country.
I really enjoyed this convo with our @GPAinsights friends; just the tip of the iceberg of all the expertise the team offered as this historic(ally weird) #elxn45 unfolded.
Global Public Affairs@GPAinsights
Following the 2025 federal election, members of our coast-to-coast team gathered with @BSommerhalder, CEO of MQO Research, to dig deep into the interesting details and underlying data associated with the election results. ▶️ Watch here: youtu.be/slhkvejCv4c?si… 🎧 Or listen on Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/10bBjx… 🎧 Or on Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/pos…
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@Vitormarciano @CanadianPolling We (@MQOResearch) have receipts -- our data dashboard now has "Projections and Results" tab (as of first thing this morning, will update upon finals end of day): mqoresearch.com/2025-federal-e…
Note: our projected result is represented by the "Voted" + "Not Voted, 80%+ Likely" filters
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@CanadianPolling Can you do this for the regional numbers? In other elections a really good overall accuracy was a good averaging of poor regional performance.
IE was Mainstreet consistently good? or did its large regional errors coincidentally cancel each other out?
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These shares will nudge up and down very slightly as the rest of the votes are counted, but here's the rough standing for the pollsters this election
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Overall, another well-polled federal election by the Canadian market research industry.
MQO Research@MQOResearch
An eventful #elxn45 night! This was a story of CPC overperforming our projection and NDP underperforming it (+3.5 / -2.8) -- the difference that made the difference. The avg. error between our projection and the result: ~1.8pts (MoE was 2.1).
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One of my favourite features on our #elxn45 polling data dashboard is ability to filter by voting status (already voted, most/least likely to vote). We found that among the 7.4 million Canadians who voted early, 51% went for the Liberal Party. Wow! mqoresearch.com/2025-federal-e…
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@338Canada We've also been getting (unsuccessful) attacks to our website over the past couple of weeks. Someone out there really. hates. numbers.
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Well, well, well... looks like it was not simply high traffic that took down 338 today, but "attacks". That's a first.
French pages work fine, so practice your French here (same numbers and charts!) : qc125.com/canada/distric…
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Chips are down folks -- over to you, voters!
MQO Research@MQOResearch
Our final #elxn45 vote share projection*: 🔴LPC: 44% | 🔵CPC: 38% | 🟠NDP: 9% | ⚜️BQ: 5% | 🟢GPC: 2% *Among those who already voted or self-rated as 80%+ likely to vote on election day. Full results & interactive data dashboard: mqoresearch.com/canada-federal… (for @GPAinsights)
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For all my data nerds out there👇mqoresearch.com/2025-federal-e…
MQO Research@MQOResearch
#elxn45 is almost here and we look forward to publishing our final poll results for @GPAinsights weekend. In the meantime, we invite you to play with the data we collected each week on our Interactive Election Data Dashboard: mqoresearch.com/2025-federal-e…
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Brenden Sommerhalder retweetledi
Our latest (post-debate) result for @GPAinsights #Elxn45 polling showing continued stability:
LPC holding steady, CPC/BQ slight gains, NDP ticks down: mqoresearch.com/mqo-global-pub…
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Which leader performed best at the debates? Depends who you ask -- sort of.
🔵CPC voters stuck behind Poilievre (78% choosing him).
🔴LPC voters were less with Carney (66%), with 19% unable to choose someone.
🟠NDP voters had one eye on Singh (54%) and the other on Carney (24%).
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Our latest poll results for #Elxn45.
Stability in nat'l support is hiding interesting churn under the hood this time (swing toward CPC in BC; deepening red in QC..)
As always, don’t bet your life’s savings on any one poll. But -- Let the games begin?
mqoresearch.com/canada-federal…
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It's been a remarkably stable race so far to the advantage of the Liberal Party, according to our first three waves of nationwide #elxn41 polling.
MQO Research@MQOResearch
Our latest nationwide federal election polling for @GPAinsights finds the Liberal Party holding a 10-point lead among decided and leaning voters: mqoresearch.com/mqo-global-pub… #cdnpoli #polling
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