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Desi Nadda
5.7K posts

Desi Nadda
@BabaSecular
Absolute Justice. Secular Government
Katılım Mayıs 2019
571 Takip Edilen116 Takipçiler

@GKamranKhan Beautiful
Thanks for sharing such a joyful clip
Let people live don’t impose your halali pun on other people’s halali pun
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@Dr_AyeshaNavid Every couple need to raise their families independently in a separate home. It eliminates a lot of problems. Yes, when Saas Susr come to an age when need help, they can move in with kids and grand kids
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Bill Ackman turned $27 million into $2.6 billion in 30 days. Here's the exact trade, and why the same setup exists right now.
In February 2020, Ackman saw COVID spreading through Italy and realized the US market hadn't priced in what was about to happen.
He spent $27 million buying credit default swaps on the investment-grade corporate bond index. Basically insurance policies that pay out when companies start defaulting on debt.
30 days later the market collapsed 30%. His $27 million position was worth $2.6 billion. A 9,500% return in one month.
Then he did something even smarter. He sold the hedge at the bottom and used the $2.6 billion to buy stocks at March 2020 lows. Hilton, Lowe's, Agilent. Bought them at maximum fear. Those positions doubled and tripled over the next 18 months.
$27 million into $2.6 billion into an equity portfolio worth over $10 billion. All from one trade that started as a hedge.
This wasn't luck. The setup was visible weeks before the crash if you were watching the right signals. Corporate credit spreads were widening. Italy's healthcare system was collapsing in real time. The VIX was still low because nobody believed it would reach America.
The same type of asymmetric setup exists right now. Not the same trade. But the same structure.
The Buffett Indicator just hit 232%. Highest in history. Buffett himself is sitting on $334 billion cash. Private credit funds are gating $4.6 billion in redemptions. The former Treasury Secretary just called for an emergency plan for a potential bond market crash. Oil is above $100.
Everything is priced for the best case. The hedge costs almost nothing when everyone believes the best case.
You don't need to be Bill Ackman. You need the same concept at your scale.
Tail-risk hedging for a regular portfolio:
Put options on SPY (S&P 500 ETF). A put 20% below current price expiring 6 months out costs roughly 1-2% of the position you're protecting. If the market drops 30%, that 1-2% position returns 10-15x. If the market doesn't drop, you lose the 1-2% premium and your portfolio keeps running.
That's the Ackman structure in miniature. Small cost. Asymmetric payoff.
Raise cash to 20-30%. Park in T-bills at 5.2%. You're getting paid to wait.
Set limit orders 30-40% below current prices on companies you want to own forever. AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN. If the crash comes, you buy automatically at prices you chose in advance.
Allocate 5-10% to commodities that benefit from chaos. Gold miners (GDX), uranium (CCJ), energy producers (XOM, CVX) with 3-4% dividend yields.
The entire Ackman thesis was one insight: markets price the consensus, not the risk. When consensus is "everything is fine" and the risk is building underneath, the hedge is cheap.
Right now, consensus is "the worst is over."
The Buffett Indicator says otherwise. Buffett's own cash position says otherwise. The Fed printing $40 billion says otherwise.
The hedge is cheap when nobody thinks they need one.
every week i break down what institutional money is actually doing and the asymmetric setups building in real time. former banker. real trades.
felixfriends.org/live
(bill ackman spent $27 million on credit default swaps. 30 days later they were worth $2.6 billion. he sold the hedge at the bottom, bought stocks at maximum fear, and turned it into $10 billion. the setup was visible weeks before the crash if you watched the right signals. the buffett indicator just hit the highest level in american history. buffett is sitting on $334 billion cash. private credit funds are locking people's money behind gates. the former treasury secretary is calling for an emergency plan. the hedge costs 1-2% of your portfolio. the consensus says everything is fine. it always does.)
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@AthSal01 Thanks for sharing. Now I know I can use vpn for this purpose. A Muslim is who wants to make other a good Muslim and he doesn’t give a rats ass about his own character
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@YousufNazar Build electricity with solar as he said. Collaborate for the rest like we do for auto production.
We don’t have and will never have own ev technology unless China has pity on us. So collaborate.
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@iNasimSiddiqui Yeah it was protocol given by USA
Traveling from plane to the terminal building
No awami paisa
PTI will always mislead
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عوامی وزیراعظم تھا ، موجودہ حکمرانوں کی طرح عوام کے ٹیکس کے پیسوں پر عیاشی نہیں مارتا تھا۔ دوسری بات خودداری بھی کوئ چیز ہوتی ہے۔
Ammar Masood@ammarmasood3
یاد ہے عمران خان کا امریکہ کا دورہ
اردو

@husainhaqqani Don't forget that we are talking about a society that believes it is ok to beat or kill women for not wearing a Hijab. If they suspect infidelity the have known to splash acid on the females face. We are not dealing with normal human beings.
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@USronaldcarter @BillAckman Why blame NATO when you r tryjng to hirt them
With tariffs. Who will
Hurt the most by this war? Europe
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🚨 NOBODY KNOWS HOW FUCKED NATO ACTUALLY IS RIGHT NOW.
In the last 72 hours, watch who walked away:
🇫🇷 France: Blocked US military overflight for weapons to Israel — FIRST TIME since war began Feb 28. Israel cut ALL defense procurement from France.
🇮🇹 Italy: Denied Sigonella air base landing to US bombers. Defense Minister said relations are "solid and loyal." DAYS after blocking US planes.
🇪🇸 Spain: Closed ENTIRE airspace to US operations. Blocked Naval Station Rota AND Morón Air Base. PM Sánchez called it "not NATO collective defense."
🇵🇱 Poland: Refused to redeploy Patriot batteries. US burned through 1,200+ interceptors in 16 days. Poland said no.
🇨🇭 Switzerland: Denied 2 US reconnaissance flights. Suspended $120,000,000 in weapons exports under "neutrality laws."
🇬🇧 UK: PM said "this is not our war." Trump told them to "build up some delayed courage."
🇩🇪 Germany: President Steinmeier called war "possibly illegal." WHILE hosting Ramstein — largest US base outside America.
That is: France, Italy, Spain, Poland, Switzerland, UK, and Germany.
All in ONE week.
When this many allies abandon you at once, it's not a disagreement.
It's a collapse.
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@MiftahIsmail When a well, educated person like you criticizes the government knowing the fact that crude oil prices have gone up more than 150% and I’m talking Dubai crude what will ordinary public do
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پچھلے ہی ہفتے عزت ماب وزیراعظم صاحب نے یہ فرمایا تھا کہ پٹرول اور ڈیزل کی قیمتوں کا اضافی بوجھ عوام پہ نہیں ڈالا جائے گا بلکہ حکومت خود ہی یہ بوجھ برداشت کرے گی- مگر ایک ہی ہفتے میں فیصلہ بدل دیا گیا-کیا وزرائے کرام نے پوچھا بھی ہے وزیر اعظم سے کہ یہ بوجھ لوگوں پہ ڈال دیا جائے یا بغیر ان کی اجازت کے ڈال دیا گیا؟ وزیراعظم صاحب تو حکومت کے اس فیصلے سے بہت دکھی ہوں گے!!
اردو

میری بیٹی کی عید پر کال آنی تھی…
میں بہت پریشان تھا کہ آخر کیا وجہ ہے کہ نہ داماد بات کروا رہا ہے اور نہ ہی بیٹی کی کوئی خبر ہے۔
عید گزر گئی… دل بے چین رہا، تو میں نے جہلم سے کراچی کی ٹرین پکڑی
اور بلدیہ ٹاؤن، اتحاد ٹاؤن میں اپنے داماد کے گھر پہنچ گیا۔
جب میں نے داماد کو کال کی تو اس نے کہا:
“ہم کہیں گئے ہوئے ہیں۔”
مجھے شک ہوا، میں نے اہلِ علاقہ سے پوچھا کہ میری بیٹی اس گھر میں رہتی تھی…
تو انہوں نے بتایا:
عید سے کچھ دن پہلے ایک شادی شدہ لڑکی کا انتقال ہوا تھا،
اور اسے دفنا بھی دیا گیا ہے۔
جب نام پوچھا تو پتا چلا… وہ میری بیٹی “مسکان” تھی 💔
یہ سن کر میرے قدموں تلے زمین نکل گئی…
میں وہیں گر گیا… مجھے یقین نہیں آ رہا تھا کہ میری بیٹی اب اس دنیا میں نہیں رہی۔
میں ایک بوڑھا باپ ہوں…
اتحاد ٹاؤن قائم خانی چوکی تھانے کے چکر لگا لگا کر تھک چکا ہوں،
لیکن 10 دن گزرنے کے باوجود ابھی تک مقدمہ درج نہیں کیا گیا۔
میری صرف ایک گزارش ہے:
میری بیٹی کی قبر کشائی کی جائے، اس کا پوسٹ مارٹم کیا جائے تاکہ حقیقت سامنے آ سکے۔
پولیس کا کہنا ہے کہ تحقیقات جاری ہیں…
لیکن میرا دل گواہی دے رہا ہے کہ میری بیٹی کے ساتھ ظلم ہوا ہے۔
😪 کیا کوئی ہے جو ایک بے بس باپ کے لیے آواز اٹھائے؟
میری ہڈیوں میں اب اتنی طاقت نہیں رہی…
📢 اگر آپ انصاف چاہتے ہیں تو اس آواز کو آگے پہنچائیں

اردو

@sarataseer Us communicate to Pakistan
Pakistan forwards to Iran
True both ways
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I can’t make sense of the negotiations in #Pakistan. The Israelis aren’t involved, neither are the Americans nor the Iranians……
so who exactly is at the table, and what are they negotiating?
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@TZM_Zamzama Uncle G
So much love of prophet but haven’t implemented anything he advised to in 79 years. Why not?
Hypocrisy?
Remember summary of Khutba on Hajjat ul wida? Which was charter of human rights
More…
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Desi Nadda retweetledi

تقریباً چار ہفتے کی اس جنگ کے دوران ایران کے ڈھائی درجن سے زائد سئنیر ترین ملٹری آفیسرز مارے جاچکے ہیں۔ کئی جونئیر افسران بھی جانیں گنوا بیٹھے۔
یہ ہوتی ہے اصلی والی جنگ، جس میں فوج کی ہائی کمان بھی اپنے سپاہیوں کی طرح جانیں دیتی ہے۔
پاکستان نے کئی جنگیں لڑیں، لیکن آج تک کبھی کوئی آرمی چیف تو دور، کورکمانڈر بھی کسی جنگ میں شہید نہ ہوا۔
ہم اسی لئے ہر جنگ ہارتے آئے،
ایران اسی لئے جنگ جیت رہا ہے!!!
اردو
Desi Nadda retweetledi

3 weeks ago I argued the US goal in Iran is to seize the global oil spigot. Venezuela in January -> Iran in February.
Neutralize every supply channel outside the dollar system within 90 days. Achieve a compliant successor government and complete energy dominance.
The oil thesis was the obvious layer. However, when you zoom out & view the last four years as a single sequence rather than isolated geopolitical events, the architecture of the grander US plan becomes visible.
1st was Europe, which laid the groundwork.
The Ukraine conflict provided the justification for sanctions that collapsed Russian pipeline gas from 150 billion cubic meters to 40.
Then Nordstream was destroyed, which rewired the entire European energy system permanently. The US went from supplying 28% of Europe's LNG in 2021 to 58% by 2025, exporting a record 111 million MTs, the 1st country in history to break 100 MT.
Europe was transformed from a customer with options into a captive market now purchasing its survival in USD.
2nd was Syria.
The fall of Assad severed the critical node connecting China's Belt & Road Initiative to the Mediterranean.
The trilateral railway linking Iran, Iraq & Syria, designed to bypass Western maritime chokepoints, was completely destroyed.
This isolated Iran geographically & cleared the path for what came next.
3rd was Venezuela.
In January the US effectively took control of the world's largest heavy crude reserves. The US Gulf Coast has the most advanced refining complex on earth, specifically built for heavy sour crude. Phillips 66, Valero & the rest are now positioned to process hundreds of thousands of barrels of Venezuelan crude daily.
The US captured a massive strategic reserve & solidified its position as the dominant exporter of refined petroleum products, an industry worth $110 billion in 2025 alone.
Venezuela & Iran were the two major oil supply channels that existed outside the dollar system. Both produce heavy crude sold primarily to China & evaded US financial supervision. Both now being neutralized within 90 days, which leads us to..
4th is Iran & the Middle East energy shock.
Israel struck Iran's South Pars gas field, the world's largest natural gas reservoir. Iran retaliated against Qatar's Ras Laffan, the single largest LNG facility on earth, responsible for a fifth of global supply. QatarEnergy's own assessment is that 17% of export capacity is gone and recovery will take up to 5 years. The Strait of Hormuz is closed. European gas prices spiked 70%. Asian spot prices doubled.
The only remaining scaled supplier? The United States.
If Iran falls & a successor government is installed that the US controls or influences (the Delcy model described weeks ago) then roughly 40 to 45 million barrels per day of global production out of 103 million is effectively under US control. OPEC becomes irrelevant because the US coalition is now the marginal producer. Now add the gas dimension & it goes beyond oil.
This war is solidifying the petrodollar system as it evolves into a hybrid petro/LNG-dollar. The old system was built on Saudi crude priced in USD. The new system is built on American crude plus American gas from the Gulf Coast, with no alternative supplier of comparable scale. The dependency is deeper because LNG infrastructure requires long term contracts & regasification terminals that lock buyers into supply relationships for decades. Europe & the Pacific allies (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, etc.) cannot pivot away as there is nowhere left to pivot to. They're now locked into the US energy system.
The market confirms this. DXY went from 96 to 101. Gold down ~20% from its January all time high. Bitcoin down 20% on the year. Brent above $100. European & Asian institutions are liquidating precious metals and crypto to buy dollars because they need dollars to buy the only remaining scaled energy supply. The world is selling its gold to buy American energy in American currency. The dollar is now being weaponized through energy dependency.
The structural repricing is happening regardless of how the conflict resolves.
But the US grand strategy goes deeper..
Artificial intelligence is a physical industry. It runs on power and chips. Data centers require massive uninterrupted baseload electricity, primarily provided by natural gas. Semiconductor fabrication requires helium & rare earths.
By choking the Strait of Hormuz & crippling Middle Eastern LNG & helium production, the US is systematically degrading China's ability to power its data centers & fabricate semiconductors at scale.
The US is energy self sufficient, especially with newly captured Venezuelan reserves & expanding Gulf Coast capacity running on domestic gas.
On the other hand, China is import dependent & every joule it imports effectively now transits chokepoints the US Navy controls..
Iran was the Belt & Road's overland energy bypass, the corridor that allowed China to mitigate the Malacca Trap. With Iran neutralized that corridor is severed. China faces a world where its compute infrastructure competes for scraps on a depleted global LNG market, while American data centers run at full capacity on domestic energy.
Russia is next in the sequence. A post-war Iran reopening under US influence competes directly with Russia for the same refineries in China & India at lower cost. Iran's production costs are lower. Russia loses its last structural advantage in heavy crude & its economic lifeline. Additionally, under the Iran war cover, Ukraine has been opportunistically destroying Russian energy infrastructure & all signs point towards Russia being at the end of the line. The message from Washington becomes very simple: we dismantled two regimes in three months, your economy is about to get crushed, sign the Ukraine deal.
Then Trump sits down with Xi holding every card. Complete energy dominance. The hybrid petro/LNG-dollar fortified, Iran cleared, Russia cornered, & China facing the Malacca Trap fully closed with no remaining energy bypass.
Israel & the GCC are absorbing the kinetic cost of a conflict whose primary beneficiary, counter to the mainstream narrative, is actually America (First). Qatar offline for 5 years reprices the entire global gas market in favor of US exporters for the remainder of the decade. The Gulf states face years of rebuilding. Europe faces its 2nd energy crisis in four years.
Sure, the average American might face temporary moderate inflation & higher gas prices. But if you are the architect of the US empire & you view the rise of China & Chinese ASI as an existential winner takes all scenario, the collateral damage is acceptable cost.
Whoever controls the energy corridors controls the monetary system. Whoever controls the monetary system & the energy supply simultaneously controls the compute infrastructure that determines which civilization builds ASI first.
The US is seizing all 3.
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Never wrestle with a pig. You both get dirty and he loves it.
Abeera@arey_abeera
Who the hell you are to decide Ahmadis faith or disbelief? Do you have the keys to Jannah or did Allah personally declare you destined for it? And shame on you for representing Islam like this have some shame.
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