BackFromMargin

Because this would be unfair doing it only during the good times, here is my latest perf monitoring. I'm in the middle of a rug lately. Been caught both sides on every trade for +/- 3 weeks 😒 I hope this ends soon !

@OddStats Watching KOSPI and SOXX several times lately, I'm still amazed KOSPI is now the most volatile of them two, which is very rare, indeed

The KOSPI (stop laughing) is currently down -31.3% from its most recent all time highest point. This is the 7th worst crash already in KOSPI history, which goes back to 1980. The 6 worse crashes all took a *minimum* of 242 trading days to go from peak to trough. The current crash is 17 trading days old.

@NickWoolos Don't know 🤷

Bullish.

@DadInvest My 5th year on markets, lost money 4 years straight, adding capital slowly, then was 50% down & didn't want to add anymore Then I finally found something I understood, that worked for me. Made it back in one year. 100% profit. Learning takes time, patience, humbleness 🤷

I saw a guy I follow tweet that he’s down 40% YTD. I can’t underscore this enough: that sucks. What you’re doing is not working, do something else or turn it over to a professional.

@WuffettBarken @OddStats Yes, hard to extract any sense from the whole price action lately. Choppy chop 🙄 Time to "sit aside and watch the river" maybe ? (I'm quoting you Wuffet, I remember this discussion 😄)

@BackFromMargin @OddStats It's not a bit volatile. It's completely unregulated and the definition of chop. Before only leaders were chopping and defensives like XLV, XLP were trending. Now everything broken including defensive sectors. If you're very fast you can make money, otherwise - avoid.

You're going to see a lot of stats today like "When CPI falls below 4%..." "Last time CPI estimates were this far off..." But what you should really know is, oil is already back in the 80s after being in the 60s/low 70s for a good chunk of this month's CPI data and that, if it stays up here, CPI is likely to jump right back up soon. Why am I telling you this? Because the last time CPI dropped ▪ From 4.2% ▪ To under 4% ▪ But then jumped BACK to 4.2% ▪ Round trip in 6 months or less Why, that would be 2008.

@OddStats @WuffettBarken A bit volatile, sure, but far from dropping for now, both oil and indexes . Indexes live in lalaland Or They smell something Or This whole thing makes no sense until it suddenly makes sense again and we all lost our time, again 😅

@BackFromMargin @WuffettBarken Been dropping literally since I posted my tweet, actually.

@OddStats @WuffettBarken I still don't get how oil keeps rising today and index doesn't give a shit, really surprising given the recent inverse correlation

@WuffettBarken Correct. Why anyone would be excited about these numbers knowing that oil is already back up is beyond me.

Anything resembling to a rally keeps being sold instantly, this genuinely doesn't look bullish to my eye 🙈

The amount of bad quality signal from breadth is impressive. I'm not giving it a lot of credit now... Meanwhile, Mean Reversion looks to give a correct signal but could also be deteriorating fast if today and tomorrow keep pushing higher. 😒 Stance : 150% Short 🙈

Daily Reading ! Breadth Strong : 0 Neutral : 8 Soft : 2 Softening, bearish but not dramatically 🌧️ Mean Reversion Heading OS : 3/6 Touched OS : 0/6 Bearish 🌧️ Corr : did not reset enough, still too low to my taste 🌧️ Vol : Trend : 9/18 bullish 🌤️ Stretched 3/3 two days ago 🌧️

@MichaelPBento How are futures not reacting to it this morning ? I don't get it

WTI is ripping, now back above $80, we’ll reach $87 by the end of the week at this pace.

@DavidInglesTV I remember seeing real estate chinese companies being at 2x earnings at the very beginning of what can be now considered as a big burst... Though I don't know what was the aggregate earnings multiple of the sector

Cheapest bubble to burst ever? If Korea's equity market was in a bubble this year and if that bubble had in fact just burst, would be the cheapest bubble to burst ever.. went from 8x earnings to 5x earnings now

@Vince_R_Jansen Simple and so effective at the same time ! 🤩

Sample: 6/1/1927 - 6/1/2026 Filters: 1) Monetary: 10yr - FedFunds >= 0.5% 2) Fiscal: y/y Current Expenditures >= 10yr 3) Monetary Momentum: y/y S&P 500 >= y/y Cash 4) Fiscal Momentum: y/y Gold >= y/y Cash 5) High Beta Momentum: y/y Small-Caps >= y/y S&P 500 For all filters true, the avg small-cap annualized 1m forward return over cash is 51.4%. These filters have all been true since January. Small Caps have so far annualized 45.7% from end of January to end of June.

@Vince_R_Jansen Huh 😅

@BackFromMargin I rebalance portfolios monthly and when clients get a bunch of notifications they tend to send me a text: "Trading day!"

Trading day

@kurtsaltrichter Why didn't it work last time ?

Systematic positioning climbed off its late-June capitulation low but is still net short a tape near the highs. This could be some squeeze fuel: under-positioned money chasing a market that keeps holding. Headwind turning tailwind.

@WuffettBarken Strong breadth keeps holding the index while tech keeps underperforming today 😳 This was well put 👏

@BackFromMargin SPX is going sideways as it should in this situation. Semis/tech have huge weight in the index so strong breadth keeps it afloat for now. But the key is that we've never had healthcare led rally or financials led rally. This is market playing defense.

Semis are making new low and dropping under 50ma. Finally... What's surprising, that they're still far from being short term oversold on technicals like RSI5 but $SOXX is -16% from ATH already.

Overall : The market keeps the same dynamic, Friday's close : Breadth is bearish low quality signal Mean Reversion has best signal and is bearish Volatility structure looks bullish but very stretched with low correlations priced in ⚠️ Stance : 150% Short (still not profitable)

Corr : correlations are still too low, this looks bullish but this extreme pricing is not very sustainable and needs a reset. (Bonus : RSI divergence) 🌧️ Vol : Trend : 17/18 bullish 😳 ☀️ Stretch : 3/3 stretched Volatility short term 🌧️ Bonus : Vol Mean Reversion is heading up

Daily Reading ! Breadth Strong : 1 Neutral : 9 Soft : 0 This definitely doesn't match with the current market 🌧️ Mean Reversion Been OB : 4/6 Reversed : 2/6 Now OS : 0/6 Mean Reversion is now giving a clear signal, waiting for oversold condition 🌩️