Thairry frcm ravy 🇨🇭

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Thairry frcm ravy 🇨🇭

Thairry frcm ravy 🇨🇭

@Baris_trn_

Katılım Eylül 2023
37 Takip Edilen33 Takipçiler
Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭
Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭@ThierryBorgeat·
This is what you actually own when you own Estée Lauder. MAC. La Mer. Bobbi Brown. Clinique. Jo Malone. Aveda. Tom Ford Beauty. Smashbox. Le Labo. Origins. Frederic Malle. Deciem. Twenty-plus category-leading brands across skincare, cosmetics, fragrance, and hair care, built through three decades of patient M&A. Revenue in 1994: $2.6 billion. Revenue in 2022: $17.7 billion.
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Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭@ThierryBorgeat

Estée Lauder has been one of the great quality compounders of the last thirty years. From IPO to its 2022 peak, the stock was up more than 4,000%. Then China happened. The peak-to-trough was an 87% drawdown. From $374 to $48. The company is the same. The brands are the same. The customers are still buying eye cream. The price just had to figure out what to do without a Chinese growth engine for a while. A great business in a bad year is just a cheaper version of itself.

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Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭
Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭@ThierryBorgeat·
Major asset bubbles. - Tulip Mania (1634-1637): rare bulbs sold for the price of a house - Mississippi Bubble (1719-1720): +1,900% - South Sea Bubble (1719-1720): +700% - Railway Mania (UK, 1840s): railway stocks roughly tripled - Florida Land Boom (1922-1926): land prices doubled in months - Dow (1903-1929): +1,200% - Gold (1970-1980): +2,400% - Nikkei (1979-1989): +2,000% - Nasdaq (1980-2000): +3,900% - Gold (1999-2011): +760% - US Housing (2000-2006): roughly doubled - Bitcoin (2010-2021): cents to $69,000 - Nasdaq (2009-present): +1,918% - Gold (2015-present): +420% Almost four hundred years. Different countries. Different assets. Different stories. Every one of them shared three things: easy money, a believable narrative, and the conviction that this time was different. The bubble before yours is always called history. The bubble during yours is always called innovation.
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Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭
Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭@ThierryBorgeat·
Three markets. One uncomfortable truth. - Oil: +82% YTD - S&P 500: at all-time highs - 30Y Treasuries: yields above 5% Oil and bonds are telling the same story: inflation is back. Stocks are telling the opposite. The Philly Fed Prices Paid index just sided with oil. Markets don't resolve disagreements like this quietly. One of the three legs eventually has to apologize to the other two.
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Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭
Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭@ThierryBorgeat·
Every single midterm year since 1974. Same pattern. 1974 Ford: −35% 1978 Carter: −15% 1982 Reagan: −17% 1986 Reagan: −10% 1990 Bush: −20% 1994 Clinton: −8% 1998 Clinton: −22% 2002 Bush: −34% 2006 Bush: −8% 2010 Obama: −17% 2014 Obama: −10% 2018 Trump: −20% 2022 Biden: −27% 2026 Trump: ??? Every single one had a significant drawdown. Every single one recovered. The long-term chart kept going up. The question for 2026 is not if it recovers. The question is whether you will still be invested when it does.
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Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭
Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭@ThierryBorgeat·
1999. The headlines about Warren Buffett: "Has Warren Buffett lost his touch?" "Buffett's oracle status questioned." "Berkshire Hathaway's slump casts shadow on Buffett legend." "Former high-fliers take a Buffetting." The greatest investor in history was being publicly written off. Not because his businesses were failing. Because the journey looked terrible relative to what was fashionable. Five years later, Berkshire was up 430%. The Nasdaq had collapsed 80%. The next time you see a headline calling a great investor finished, remember: headlines describe the weather. They almost never describe the destination.
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Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭@ThierryBorgeat

In the twenty months leading up to the March 2000 peak: • Nasdaq 100: +290% • Berkshire Hathaway: -45% The greatest investor of all time underperformed the most exciting index of his generation by 335 percentage points in less than two years. Many sold Berkshire to buy tech. You know how the story ended. The Nasdaq crashed 80%. Berkshire recovered and kept compounding. By 2004, Berkshire was up 430% from the start of that period. The Nasdaq was up 270%. Buffett didn't change. The crowd did. The crowd lost.

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Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭
Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭@ThierryBorgeat·
How expensive is the S&P 500 right now? Four ways to count. - Price/Sales: 3.5x (all-time high, higher than 2000) - Price/Book: 5.5x (all-time high) - Forward P/E: 26x (at the 2000 dotcom peak) - Dividend Yield: 1% (near a record low) Three of these are at levels last seen at the dotcom peak. The fourth one is the price you're paying for the privilege.
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Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭
Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭@ThierryBorgeat·
🚨 Part 4 of 4: is this time different? Global semiconductor sales hit $789 billion in 2025. The trend line says they should be closer to $600 billion. So we have: • Peak inflows • Peak weight in the S&P 500 (22%) • Peak earnings, 19% above trend • Peak margins And we have premium multiples on top of all of that. Cyclical stocks at peak earnings are supposed to trade at low multiples. The market is supposed to know that peak earnings don't last. This time it is doing the opposite. GQG Partners calls this "dotcom on steroids": a market that is overvalued on earnings that are themselves inflated. They estimate roughly a third of S&P 500 operating income growth in 2025 came from the AI capex cascade alone. That has never worked out the way the buyers thought it would.
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Thairry frcm ravy 🇨🇭
Thairry frcm ravy 🇨🇭@Baris_trn_·
Keep your pothos happy! Bright indirect light + water when top 2 inches dry = lush vines. Perfect for new plant parents!
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Thairry frcm ravy 🇨🇭 retweetledi
AIhpa Cat
AIhpa Cat@AmarManirou·
"Just binged the latest episode of [综艺名]—the game challenges had me screaming, the cast chemistry is chef’s kiss! Who’s your favorite contestant Drop a if you’re hooked too! #综艺打卡 #MustWatch"
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Thairry frcm ravy 🇨🇭
Thairry frcm ravy 🇨🇭@Baris_trn_·
Just finished binge-watching the latest episode of [综艺名]! The challenges were so intense, and the cast’s chemistry was off the charts—couldn’t stop laughing (or gasping)! Who’s your favorite contestant Drop a below if you’re hooked too! #综艺打卡 #[综艺名] #MustWatch
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Thairry frcm ravy 🇨🇭
Thairry frcm ravy 🇨🇭@Baris_trn_·
Just had a chef’s kiss 1v1 match in my favorite game—clutched the final round with a sick headshot! Who’s down to grind ranked later
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