BaseWinner

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BaseWinner

@BaseWinner

Crunching MLB data into actionable betting information.

Katılım Temmuz 2009
4.1K Takip Edilen5.8K Takipçiler
BaseWinner
BaseWinner@BaseWinner·
📊 July Most Wins Market Update (July 21) The race is entering the final stretch. After updating the standings through July 21 and running another 2,000 Monte Carlo simulations: 🔴 Boston: 74.2% to finish July with the most wins... but at -575, I think the market has gone too far. ⭐ Baltimore: My model gives the Orioles a 13.4% chance (fair odds +646), while the market is still offering +3000. 🚫 I also break down why one of the market favorites is priced far above where my numbers have them. Full article and updated value board: basewinner.com/posts/july-mos… Built Models. Real Edges. ⚾📈
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BaseWinner
BaseWinner@BaseWinner·
The All-Star break is the perfect time to separate what happened from what's most likely to happen next. Our new bwml ERA powers the Basewinner Starting Pitching Rating (ML), and we used it to rank every current five-man rotation in baseball. 🏆 Top Rotations ⭐ Rotation Stars 🦃 Turkey Rotations 📈 Sabermetric Underperformers (30+ IP) 📉 Sabermetric Overperformers (30+ IP) Check out the full article: basewinner.com/posts/the-2026… #MLB #BaseballAnalytics #Sabermetrics
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BaseWinner
BaseWinner@BaseWinner·
What if the numbers voted? Introducing the inaugural 2026 Basewinner First Team: Offense ⚾ Built using BW Runs v2, our proprietary offensive rating emphasizing: ✅ K% ✅ ISO Power ✅ Park-adjusted performance Some picks were obvious. Some weren't. And yes... Romy is my Homie. 😂 🐶 Doghouse Rating: 🦴🦴🦴🦴🦴 Read the full First Team here: basewinner.com/posts/the-2026… Tomorrow: The Basewinner First Team Starting Pitchers. 👀
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BaseWinner
BaseWinner@BaseWinner·
📊 July Most Wins Market Update — All-Star Break Edition The market has changed dramatically over the last two weeks. After updating July records through July 13 and re-running 2,000 Monte Carlo simulations, here's what stood out: ✅ Boston is still the most likely team to finish July with the most wins... but I think the market has fully caught up. ⭐ The Twins and Orioles still offer outstanding value. 💣 This week's Basewinner Bomb is paying +4500. A tip of the cap to @beatingthebook and Gill Alexander—his July Red Sox selection on A Numbers Game has aged beautifully. 👏 Check out the updated probabilities, fair odds, and where I still see value: basewinner.com/posts/july-mos… Built Models. Real Edges. 📊⚾
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BaseWinner
BaseWinner@BaseWinner·
⚾ Every July I take on a fun little baseball research project. The question this year: If the Home Run Derby isn't played like a normal baseball game, why would I handicap it like one? I analyzed 3 years of Statcast data vs. offspeed pitches, focusing on HR per Ball in Play (HR/BIP) and Launch Speed, then built a three-player Dutch betting portfolio. Since 2019, that portfolio has included the eventual Derby champion in 5 of the last 6 years. Whether it cashes tonight or not, I love this approach—and hopefully you'll enjoy the research too. Read the full breakdown at: basewinner.com/posts/2026-hom…
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BaseWinner
BaseWinner@BaseWinner·
📈 July Most Wins Market Update (July 7) One week into July, I re-ran 2,000 Monte Carlo simulations using updated team ratings, current records, and the remaining schedule. A few things stood out: ✅ Dodgers remain the team to beat. ⭐ Twins have become one of the biggest value plays. 👀 My model and the betting market couldn't disagree more on one of the favorites. Updated probabilities, fair odds, and my favorite plays: basewinner.com/posts/july-mos… Built Models. Real Edges. 📊⚾
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BaseWinner
BaseWinner@BaseWinner·
Who finishes July with the most wins? 🤔 I built proprietary team ratings (Starting Pitching • Bullpen • Offense • Defense), projected every remaining game, and ran 2,000 Monte Carlo simulations to estimate each team's true probability today. The result? ✅ Value on a few favorites. ⭐ A 100-1 longshot that jumped off the page. 💣 A handful of bombs with intriguing upside. Check out the full methodology, fair odds, and my July plays: July's Most Wins Market: Finding Value Through 2,000 Simulations P.S. Stick around until the end... Basewinner Barker might make an appearance. 🎤😎
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