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BeSomebodyFX
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BeSomebodyFX
@BeSomebodyFX
We make fundamentals actionable and effective for your trading. Fundamentals for direction, technicals for entry.
Katılım Mart 2018
145 Takip Edilen1.9K Takipçiler
@9to5toMarkets True! And I think he's been puppeteered into this
He's not in control here, but let's see!
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@BeSomebodyFX It’s the one play he doesn’t have the full control of he initially might have thought he had.
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I don't think Trump's "escalate to deescalate" is going to work this time around
Iran is not playing ball with it
In 48h we might have another large escalation on energy infrastructure
Don't get caught off guard
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@BeSomebodyFX Macro frameworks simplify the decision tree. By identifying the primary driver you can ignore the noise and stay on the right side of the trend. Execution becomes a matter of alignment rather than prediction.
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Here is the framework to trade right now
If energy disruption gets worse:
1. Bullish USD
2. Bearish equities
If energy disruption fades:
1. USD strength fades
2. Risk assets breathe again
Don't overcomplicate it
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@malii_zee As of right now it goes inverse to what rates do
If rate expectations go up because of higher energy prices, GOLD goes down
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Why bullish USD?
Because the dollar benefits from multiple flows at the same time here
1. Safe haven demand
Global capital simply want...
Safety
Liquidity
And depth
And the USD still sits at the center of that system
But that’s not all
2. Higher US yield
The market is already pricing a world where the FED will have to keep rates high for longer than anticipated
And sure!
The same is true for all other central banks too
But exposure to high energy prices is NOT the same, at all!
And in many escalation scenarios, Europe is way more vulnerable than the US
Growth sensitivity
Energy sensitivity
Industrial sensitivity
The ECB can hike as much as it wants, but the market will know they’re hiking into a recession
BeSomebodyFX@BeSomebodyFX
A lot of traders hear “ECB may need to stay hawkish” and assume that should automatically support the EUR But EURUSD downside can still make a lot of sense here Why?! Europe is more exposed to the energy disruption Higher oil and gas prices do not just lift inflation there They also hit growth harder because the EU is a net energy importer, a big one So yes, the ECB sounded a little hawkish yesterday Yes, some desks are even talking about hikes ahead But that does not automatically become Euro bullish if tighter policy is arriving into a weaker growth backdrop That is the part traders miss If the bigger takeaway is: 1. More inflation 2. More growth drag 3. More pressure on consumers and industries That is why EURUSD downside can make sense even if the ECB sounds hawkish
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@BeSomebodyFX Quite right, mate. It would be a significant policy mistake.
De-Dollarisation trend soon quivered when it came down to it 😂
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@I_Am_LPT Yes! Higher rates in the US will dominate against everything
Friday the Dollar was just lagging behind a bit in my opinion
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We can clearly see the US10Y aggressive expansion to the upside.
If Yields go up, investors get better returns in the US and money flows into USD so DXY is strong and should expand to the upside buh guess what?
DXY didn’t expand with the Yield on Friday which I’m suggesting to be SMT. We probably gonna see DXY expand higher this week and Gold continues selling.
Moving forward, Dollar is still strong.
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In case you haven't realized it yet
If you want to know where the Dollar goes next in this enviroinment
You need to know where OIL goes next
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@BeSomebodyFX And the dollar index backs up your thoughts because it looks like it wants to break resistance and push high.
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A lot of traders hear “ECB may need to stay hawkish” and assume that should automatically support the EUR
But EURUSD downside can still make a lot of sense here
Why?!
Europe is more exposed to the energy disruption
Higher oil and gas prices do not just lift inflation there
They also hit growth harder because the EU is a net energy importer, a big one
So yes, the ECB sounded a little hawkish yesterday
Yes, some desks are even talking about hikes ahead
But that does not automatically become Euro bullish if tighter policy is arriving into a weaker growth backdrop
That is the part traders miss
If the bigger takeaway is:
1. More inflation
2. More growth drag
3. More pressure on consumers and industries
That is why EURUSD downside can make sense even if the ECB sounds hawkish
English
@9to5toMarkets EURUSD short for me
Just a simple Dollar play on higher energy prices continuing to force flows into the Dollar
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@BeSomebodyFX As rough of a Q1 as it has been, after this round of CB with new polices, commentary and tones, it looks like we are in for some much better PA. Even despite the headline risk.
I have taken a long on GBPNZD earlier today.
You managed to get in on anything yet?
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@BeSomebodyFX I think this phase of global tightening that we’re seeing is entirely dependant and sensitive to Oil’s price action.
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I Believe the intensity of the fighting and esp hits on anything energy related will calm down a lot.
Thus i predict;
🟢 A bounce in US EQUITIES
🟥 Oil will keep going higher or stabilize here BUT WTI/BRENT spread will compress
🟨 That idea that this is gonna lead to rate hikes, at least in the US, seems premature to me
💣 the war itself will not stop unless by miracle trump remembers that he is NOT in fact a jew.
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@BeSomebodyFX Well said "it's reacts before it's understands"
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One thing you also need to understand about FOMC weeks:
The market often reacts before it understands!
Meaning...
Don't get overly excited about the move
Macro traders comes in only hours later once the matter has been digested, evaluated, risk assessed, and properly understood!
And... please don't make this mistake!
I see many traders reverse engineer the narrative from the initial reaction.
1. USD spikes up, so they call it hawkish
2. USD drops, so they call it dovish
Don't do that!
That shortcut causes a lot of bad reads and wrong trades
Be patient, be objective
Watch the chart yes, but read the room too!
BeSomebodyFX@BeSomebodyFX
Going into the FOMC meeting... you need to understand the 3 phases of a fundamental event Phase 1: heading into the event The market positions for what it thinks the FED will do (hawkish hold) Phase 2: the event itself The FED delivers what’s already priced in Phase 3: out of the event Guidance starts setting expectations ahead and that’s where the next opportunity appears In other words... First, the market spends weeks pricing in the decision Then the decision hits and a lot of the time… it’s exactly what's priced in Then comes the part that actually matters: What does the FED hint at next? That’s usually where the real move comes from Not just the rate decision But the guidance, the tone, and what it does to expectations AFTER that meeting
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@BeSomebodyFX True macro traders are positioned days ahead on risked bets of outcome 😁
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This is honestly one of the cleanest explanations of FOMC dynamics I’ve seen 👏🏽
BeSomebodyFX@BeSomebodyFX
Going into the FOMC meeting... you need to understand the 3 phases of a fundamental event Phase 1: heading into the event The market positions for what it thinks the FED will do (hawkish hold) Phase 2: the event itself The FED delivers what’s already priced in Phase 3: out of the event Guidance starts setting expectations ahead and that’s where the next opportunity appears In other words... First, the market spends weeks pricing in the decision Then the decision hits and a lot of the time… it’s exactly what's priced in Then comes the part that actually matters: What does the FED hint at next? That’s usually where the real move comes from Not just the rate decision But the guidance, the tone, and what it does to expectations AFTER that meeting
English