@KateHarrisonxxx You can sign two (realistic-ish) players for the hammers, who you bringing in?
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LukeeeB_
2.9K posts
LukeeeB_
@BeddingLuke
32 | Leeds | Product Owner ✈️ | West Ham | Running | Photography | Travel
Pudsey, Leeds Katılım Temmuz 2011
1.3K Takip Edilen256 Takipçiler
🎄 Find The Joy Day 12 🎁
A chance to win a pair of 2025 London Games tickets!
To enter:
Make sure you’re following @NFLUKIRE
Guess what city we’re in by commenting below.
No Prchs Nsry. Ends 00:00 GMT on 26 December 2024. See rules: bit.ly/4g4z2lH
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🎄 Find The Joy Day 9 🎁
A chance to win 4 NFL Suite tickets for a Tottenham Hotspur FC game!
To enter:
Make sure you’re following @NFLUKIRE
Guess what city we’re in by commenting below.
No Prchs Nsry. Ends 00:00 GMT on 26 December 2024. See rules: bit.ly/4gf1SQg
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100% Touchdown Streaks🏈💯
NFL Week 5 🗓️
Try Linemate for FREE⬇️
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#GamblingTwitter #GamblingX #NFL
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Allen Lazard o33.5 Receiving Yards vs #Vikings (-115 DraftKings)
So far on the season, the Minnesota Vikings are blitzing at an insane rate. They have blitzed on 51.5% of their defensive plays. I expect no changes coming here in London against an Aaron Rodgers led Jets team who struggled with the blitz last week albeit in the aftermath of a hurricane in New York.
The blitz rate is important though, because when facing a blitz of 1-3 people this season, Rodgers has turned to his trusty WR Lazard as a consistent hot read option. Lazard has an equivalent target share to Garrett Wilson when faced by the blitz (22%) with more receptions (9 to Wilson's 5) and better YPRR (2.60 to Wilson's 1.09).
Additionally, the Vikings are a team who run the highest rate of 2 high safety looks in the NFL at 78.6% of plays. Lazard has only slightly trailed Wilson in target share with a 21% target per route run to Wilson's 24% versus these looks.
The Vikings have been one of the best run stuffing teams in the NFL this season, forcing opponents into heavy passing scripts and abandoning the run. Can see that happening here as the Jets run game has sputtered early this season as well.
They have allowed 2 or more receivers to cover this line in every game this season and 3 or more in 3/4 games allowing the following:
Nabers - 5-66
Wandale - 6-44
Deebo - 8-110
Aiyuk - 4-43
Jennings - 2-37
DIggs - 10-94
Nico - 4-86
Dell - 5 - 62
Reed - 7 - 139
Wicks - 5 - 78
Doubs - 4 -39
In Week 4, Lazard ran 92% of the routes for the Jets. Showing he has solidified his role as the #2 WR in New York for now.
Lazard is over this line in 3/4 games this season.
Research: @propsdotcash
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NFL Sunday Prop Play🏈
Brian Thomas O 54.5 Receiving Yards (PP)
- The Colts have been one of the league's most zone-heavy teams through the first 4 weeks. They ranked 2nd in zone coverage rate ahead of their Week 4 matchup vs the Steelers (80.8%). Despite their heavy reliance on zone, they have been average in almost all coverage metrics.
- Thomas has dominated vs zone coverage so far this season. He currently ranks 10th among all eligible players in Y/RR vs the coverage (2.86). He has also dominated the Jag's target share vs the coverage, posting a team-high 26% target rate. His 18 targets are first on the team by a 5-target margin, the second closest being Gabe Davis (13).
- The Colts have been getting cooked by opposing X receivers this season. They rank bottom 4 on a per-game basis in both receiving yards (134.3) and passing yards per play (9.8) allowed to the alignment. Their 0.29 EPA/Pass is good for the 10th highest in the league.
- Thomas has lined up almost exclusively out wide to start his NFL career, seeing over 78% of his snaps from that spot. The Colts have also struggled to contain Outside WRs after the catch, as they have allowed 143 YAC through the first 4 weeks. Thomas has been great after the catch this season, as he currently ranks 10th among all players in YAC from the Wide alignment (77).
- Opposing receiver's stats from the Wide Alignment vs the Colts this season⬇️
Nico Collins: 6-117
Rome Odunze: 4-97
DJ Moore: 8-78
George Pickens: 5-71
Romeo Doubs: 3-62
Tank Dell: 3-40
I am loving this spot for Thomas, with this line currently available on numerous books and DFS apps, so lock this prop in, and let’s make some cash!
LIKE IF TAILING❤️
FOLLOW FOR MORE FREE DAILY PLAYS🔒
Data found using @propsdotcash📊
Code MAILMAN for 25% off at props.cash
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1.5u Jayden Reed O 59.5 receiving (-120)
Love has 649 yards this year, 277 of them are to Reed in Game 1 & Game 4. Reed has had two monster games 138 & 139 yard games with Love this year. Now they are facing the Rams who allow the 10th most YPG and in 3/4 games their opponents deep threats have gone for 100+ I absolutely love this play gang!😤
- Jameson Williams 5 for 121 yards 1 TD
- Marvin Harrison Jr 4 for 130 yards 2 TDs
- Juan Jennings 11 for 175 yards 3 TDs
Throwing a 0.5u on Reed 100+ & ATD✨
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Jordan Mason o85.5 Rush Yards vs #Cardinals (-115 betMGM)
Premium matchup here for Mason vs a Cardinals team who can be attacked on the ground. In fact, in recent weeks the Lions and Commanders made it a point to go all in on the ground attack in those games leading to some extremely positive results.
As far as opportunity goes here, Mason is still the bellcow carrying 24 times last week. This was because Isaac Guerendo fumbled in lone snap last week. There really is not much trust there in Guerendo like there is in Mason. While I do expect Isaac to get another chance as the main spell back this week, I also expect Mason to be in the 20-22 carry range.
Matchup wise it is elite as Jordan Mason is an explosive downhill runner running in a mostly zone run scheme for the 49ers. 71.4% of Mason's rushing attempts have come from zone rushing vs Man/Gap concepts. On the season so far, the Cardinals are getting thrashed on Zone run concepts, allowing the 7th highest YPC at 4.8 but even more important allowing the 3rd highest success rate at 59.4%. Mason has just been amazing at both, averaging over 4.8 YPC in zone and 5.2 in man/gap.
The Cardinals front has allowed two straight lead backs to cover this line, and additionally secondary backs have been gashing them as well:
Montgomery - 23 - 105
Gibbs - 16 - 83
Robinson - 21 - 101
McNichols - 8 - 68
Mason has averaged 3.02 yards after contact this year so far, and the Cardinals allow the 11th most yards before contact this season. Meaning Mason should be in for some nice chunk gains here.
If both of these teams can even just stick to their averages Mason gets us over this line in just 18 or so carries. He is over in 3/4 in some far tougher matchups than this one presents.
Research: @propsdotcash
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Garrett Wilson O 52.5 Rec Yds (FD -114) 🏈
Wilson has had a tough start to the season, but their’s optimism he can break out this week after some atrocious matchups 🔛🔝🔜
He had to deal with Pat Surtain, Christian Gonzalez & L’Jarius Sneed in the past 3 weeks 🤯
Now he faces a Vikings defense that is 30th in fantasy points allowed to WR, and has allowed the most targets to WR (110). His underlying usage has been strong, with a 25.6% team target share and 33.5% of the team’s air yards. In the past few weeks, the Vikings have allowed the following WRs to go off 🚀
Jayden Reed - 139 Rec Yds
Nico Collins - 86 Rec Yds
Stefon Diggs 94 Rec Yds
Deebo Samuel 110 Rec Yds
Garrett Wilson voiced his frustration with the Jets offense and the lack of creativity in his route tree. I think the coaching staff will make an emphasis on getting a bit more creative in getting him the rock 📈
Great buy low opportunity 🎯
Chart by @propsdotcash 📊
#GamblingX #Markus_Markets
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1.05u - Derrick Henry o84.5 Ru Yds (-105)
Show some ❤️ if you want an ATD play for the Thursday Night Football game
Analysis Below 👇 Chart & Data from @propsdotcash
Henry is averaging 20 Rust Attempts per game this season, and over 5.6 YPC. Henry is on pace to have his best season yet, and don’t expect that to slow down vs Cincy.
Cincy has allowed 3 different RBs to go over this line this season, and none are near the Caliber of Derrick Henry.
Hubbard - 104
Pacheco - 90
Stevenson - 120
You’re telling me the same team that allowed Chuba Hubbard to go for 104 last week is holding Henry under 85? Grow up. Cincy is allowing 4.5 YPA vs the run this season, and if we set that as the floor for Henry he will soar over this line.
The market currently sits at 18.5 attempts for King Henry, juiced to the over. In games where Henry has at least 16 touches (4 under his season average) and has 4+ YPC (1.6 under his average) he’s cleared this line in 87% of the 23 games averaging OVER 125 YPG 🤯
Projection: 132 Ru Yds
Prophet@Prophetprops1
1.1u - George Pickens o54.5 Rec Yds (-110) Analysis Below 👇 Chart & Data from @propsdotcash Pickens is averaging 7.3 targets per game and is clearly Fields favorite option. When Pickens see’s 5+ targets he has recorded over this 54.5 Yards in 7 of the L10 games averaging 84.1 YPG. I truely believe 7 is the floor for Pickens targets The Cowboys have allowed several receivers to go over this line. Last week 3 different Giants recorded 55+ yards, including 115 from Malik Nabers. 7 of the L9 receivers to face Dallas have gone over their yard line Dallas also runs Cover 3 at 38% ranking 8th most in the NFL. Pickens has FEASTED vs Cover 3 recording the 3rd most yards in the NFL with a 28.9% Target Share. He’s also averaging 43% of Team yards vs Cover 3. Pickens ADOT is 15.88 yards vs zone this season (Dallas runs 3rd most), and he’s recording 34% of his teams yards vs zone as well. It may not be as explosive as Nabers, but expect Pickens to have a big night here. Projection: 70.25 Yards #HereWeGo #DallasCowboys #PlayerProps #PrizePicks
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Brian Thomas Jr. o49.5 Receiving Yards vs #Colts (-110 Bet365)
Ceiling spot for Thomas Jr. who has absolutely COOKED vs Cover 3 this season with a 26.7% target share versus the coverage in the Jaguars offense while putting up a pretty ridiculous 3.97 YPRR.
The Colts will run this at the 4th most in the NFL (43.1%) and have had a penchant for allowing mammoth games to opposing offenses #1 X receiver:
Nico Collins - 6 - 117
Odunze - 6 -112
Pickens - 7 -113
Excluding the Packers game here as they ran the ball about 45 times and Malik Willis didn't throw.
The Jags do likely get Evan Engram back this week which should cut slightly into Thomas, but as a rookie he's been too good of late with 9 and 9 targets in the last 2 games and the matchup he gets here is far too premium to pass.
Research: @propsdotcash
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I’ve been waiting the past 30 hours for this line to drop!
1u Brian Thomas O 49.5 receiving (-125)
Colts giving up the 7th most receiving yards a game letting 8 players go for 50+ receiving yards. He’s averaging 68 YPG, going over in 2/4 the two misses he had 47 & 48 yards.
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1.1u - Marvin Harrison o53.5 Rec Yds (-110)
Collab with @JG4President
Analysis Below 👇 Chart & Data from @propsdotcash
- Harrison has only cleared this line in 2/4 to start his career, but his receptions and target share last week gives me hope.
- San Francisco has struggled vs talented receivers this season allowing at least 1 WR to go over this line in every game, excluding the New England game.
- Arizona runs a lot of cover 3 (39%) and cover 4 (22%). Harrison is averaging over 18.35 yards aDot, and over 20.78 YPR vs zone. I’m projecting Marvin to have a big game
WRs vs SF this season 👇
Tutu Atwell - 93
Jalen Nailer - 54
Justin Jefferson - 133
Garrett Wilson - 60
Allen Lazard -89
Projection: 72 Yards
Prophet@Prophetprops1
1.1u - George Pickens o54.5 Rec Yds (-110) Analysis Below 👇 Chart & Data from @propsdotcash Pickens is averaging 7.3 targets per game and is clearly Fields favorite option. When Pickens see’s 5+ targets he has recorded over this 54.5 Yards in 7 of the L10 games averaging 84.1 YPG. I truely believe 7 is the floor for Pickens targets The Cowboys have allowed several receivers to go over this line. Last week 3 different Giants recorded 55+ yards, including 115 from Malik Nabers. 7 of the L9 receivers to face Dallas have gone over their yard line Dallas also runs Cover 3 at 38% ranking 8th most in the NFL. Pickens has FEASTED vs Cover 3 recording the 3rd most yards in the NFL with a 28.9% Target Share. He’s also averaging 43% of Team yards vs Cover 3. Pickens ADOT is 15.88 yards vs zone this season (Dallas runs 3rd most), and he’s recording 34% of his teams yards vs zone as well. It may not be as explosive as Nabers, but expect Pickens to have a big night here. Projection: 70.25 Yards #HereWeGo #DallasCowboys #PlayerProps #PrizePicks
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1u Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams O 43.5 rushing
He’s over in 4/5 games this season averaging 61.2 YPG on the ground. He’s coming off his one lower miss where he played against OSU who give up the 4th least rushing yards (63) now he faces Oregon who give up the 55th least (133).
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🚨 #NFL VALUE PLAY: Brian Thomas Jr. O50.5 Receiving Yards! 🔒
200 LIKES+RTS FOR MORE PLAYS! 👇❤️🔥
#PrizePicks | #GamblingX
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Kareem Hunt o37.5 Rush Yards vs #Saints (-125 DraftKings)
Horrible line from DK imo because I am fully projecting that Hunt has now taken over as the lead RB here for the Chiefs.
Carson Steele has unfortunately for him, fortunately for us lost 2 fumbles in 28 carries this season. The trust factor is simply not there with him. Couple that with Hunt's ability to catch the ball out of the backfield and get downhill for tough yards and I think it's wraps. No way do I see Hunt not logging at least 10 carries in this one and topping out at 15-16 carries.
The Saints show that they have been good against the run this year (7th least YPG) but those numbers are insanely inflated by taking massive leads in the first two games of the year. On the season they are allowing the 4th most yards before contact per attempt at 2.36 and 5.23 YPA is 7th worst in the NFL.
Hunt popped up on the injury report with a "shoulder injury" if he goes I'd expect that would mean he's full go and ready to lead the backfield otherwise there is no use in suiting him up against the Saints with the bye week looming.
Hunt had 69 yards on 4.9 YPA against one of the better defenses in the NFL last week. If he suits up expect him to get the touches here.
With the Chiefs -5.5 favorites a positive game script is very much in play here as well.
Research: @propsdotcash
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He will go NUCLEAR ☢️
Brian Thomas Over 50.5 Receiving Yards
100❤️and I’ll drop another NFL play today
The Colts are the 2ND WORST Pass D in the NFL and they run the 4th Highest Rate of Cover 3
Where Brian Thomas is 4th IN THE NFL in yards per route run vs Cover 3 and has 43% of the Jaguars yards this coverage the Colts run half the time
And he could dominate even more in his easiest matchup he’s had all season and he leads the Jags in every category vs the Colts main coverages
On top of 3/3 WR1s without Malik Willis had at least 78 Rec Yards vs the Colts this year
Best Line: -135 MGM
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