Benjamin Cunningham

I ya Toll ah

Below we can see that when Bitcoin peaked last October, the ETP flows left Bitcoin and jumped on the gold bandwagon. Now that gold has lost its mojo while Bitcoin is finding its footing, the flows have reversed. To me this is a good way to think about why gold has started acting like Bitcoin and bitcoin has started acting like gold.

⚡️Bitcoin has been crossing disbelief thresholds for thirteen straight years. First $1. Then $100. Then $1,000. Then $10,000. Then the ETF wall. Then treasury adoption. Then state-level and sovereign-adjacent relevance. Every stage looked insane before it happened. Then it happened. Then the market normalized it and immediately moved the disbelief threshold higher. That is why these anniversary posts matter more than they seem to. They reveal how badly human memory fails in the face of compounding reality. People stare at Bitcoin where it is and argue about whether it is disappointing relative to the latest fantasy. The real story is that the world keeps forgetting how many layers of impossibility have already been broken. The deepest read is simple. Bitcoin is no longer proving that it can exist. Bitcoin is proving that the world still has no stable framework for pricing a non-state monetary contender as it climbs the hierarchy of legitimacy. That is why the emotional experience stays so chaotic. The asset keeps advancing through disbelief barriers while every new holder cohort treats the latest level as normal and demands immediate transcendence from there. Nobody honors the breach. Everyone immediately wants the next one. The highest-level coherence is this: This is about how a civilization watches a monetary insurgency compound for over a decade and still keeps reacting to it like a short-term trade. It is about how reality can keep winning while the public remains trapped inside recency bias. The clean version is simple. Bitcoin at $100 was already the signal. Everything after that has been the world taking too long to understand what it saw.

One of the strangest patterns in the stock market that you don't know about! $SPY $VTI $VOO I recently watched an interview with Samir Varma, a theoretical physicist turned trader hedge-fund manager- he earned his doctorate in particle physics from University of Texas at Austin, and was one of the first to execute profitably quantitative futures strategies. He noted - over 30 years, almost all of $SPY ’s gains happened while the market was CLOSED! I found this super interesting, so I did some digging to see if this was true and here's the data: According to a long-term analysis (1993–2025), the “overnight” strategy for SPY i.e. buy at close, sell at next open, yielded cumulative gains of 1,105%, while the “intraday” strategy, buy at open, sell at close, only delivered about 27% over the same period i.e. - If you bought at the close every day and sold at the next open, your return would be about +1,100% - If you bought at the open and sold at the close, your return is only around +27% Same index, same time period but insanely different returns. This doesn’t mean the market always drops during the day - it just means that the average intraday move has been very small over the long run, while the average overnight move has been much larger. Why might this happen? - News and earnings usually come out after hours - Futures markets react overnight - Big institutions hedge when markets are closed - Risk premium for holding exposure through uncertainty This pattern shows up again and again in the data. Why this is not a free trading strategy? because costs and spreads can wipe out the edge if you try to time it. But for long-term investors, it highlights something important: - A big part of the compounding has come from simply holding overnight. - The market often moves the most while you’re not watching, a lesson for intraday index traders ;)

Chris Camillo says AI is accelerating so fast that going to school might not be worth it anymore "One of my kids is 16 years old and he drives himself to school, and one day he slept in and I was so astonished. I was like, how is that even possible? If I would have done that as a kid, the thought of what my parents would have done to me" "But there was a part of me in the back of my head, does it even matter anymore? I'm looking at my kid going to school and I am like, why are you even in school? I know I can't say that to them, but does any of this really matter at all right now? The world is moving so quickly that the stuff you're learning is just too slow"

The Banana Zone 🍌

JPMORGAN SEES $BTC SUPPORT AT $94K, MAINTAINS $170K UPSIDE TARGET

What a privilege to be tired from work you once begged the universe for. what a privilege to feel overwhelmed by growth you used to dream about. what a privilege to be challenged by a life you created on purpose. What a privilege to outgrow things you used to settle for.

legit question/answer

I think of bitcoin mooning like my wife getting ready for a night out. I’m standing at the door ready to go and she’s trying on her seventh outfit. I’m impatient. Been ready for awhile, babe. You coming? And just when you’re ready to give up on the situation, she comes out, looking like $1M BTC (like I couldn’t afford her). In other words, it’s always worth the wait, gents.

$MSTR