Jesse D Berman

@graysbaydam Can you state what “avg” lake levels would be in your updates? It’s useful to compare against ‘lower-than-average.’ In St Louis Park, the creek is already shrinking and has not filled Meadowbrook marsh

Lake Minnetonka Level:928.57 Dam Discharge:Closed The lake has risen 14.88” since the last reading on 11/28/22. The dam is closed due a lower-than-average lake level for mid-April and because Minnehaha Creek is flowing ~57cfs at Hiawatha Ave. ~1 in. of rain is forecast 4/19-20

@dorkwad @dhmontgomery In other words, hospitalizations with COVID are now reflective of 'epidemiological pandemic' trends and not 'operational pandemic' trends, which emphasize hospital capacity and not prevalence of disease. Same data as a year ago...but different interpretation.

@dorkwad @dhmontgomery COVID hospitalizations should be viewed as a cross-section of random people (who happen to have broken bones, strokes, stitches, etc). Decreasing rates means less general population COVID, since these people would seek care regardless of status. With/for is less important

The first two years of the #COVID19 pandemic in Minnesota have seen big spikes in confirmed cases and hospitalizations in late October/early November. SO FAR there's no sign of that; metrics are still trending down. (And don't ask about the impact of home tests, that's not it.)

@dhmontgomery So it's not just preference, but actual physiological response that can vary spatially.

@dhmontgomery This phenomenon is often observed in extreme weather & health evaluations. Areas less prone to events will show greater effect estimates, even after adjustment. E.g. That Buffalo, NY heatwave is far worse than a comparable heatwave in Montgomery, AL

At what temperature does it become “hot” for you, as opposed to merely warm? When does it become “cold” vs. merely cool? Please take this quick survey with your answers and some basic info about your gender and geography: forms.gle/vJH7wjUXFigRzQ…

Sad news on the loss of E.O. Wilson. A true giant in the field of evolutionary biology. He showed that studying the smallest of creatures can yield big clues about the greater world washingtonpost.com/local/obituari…

So interesting how yelp restaurant and amazon candle reviews from people complaining about food not tasting right or lack of scent can track asymptomatic covid-19 trends twitter.com/drewtoothpaste…

Considering I spend a few hours revising a syllabus before the semester, I wondered how many students actually read it

Professor Put Clues to a Cash Prize in His Syllabus. No One Noticed. nytimes.com/2021/12/18/us/…

Let’s see how many episodes of @theeffortreport it takes to shovel my driveway.

@dhmontgomery I wonder if spatial trends explain this. High vaccination pushes Covid spread into unvaccinated pockets with less widescale infection. A long aggregate duration may reflect many localized peaks, but without a single temporally aligned one.

The big picture: the current wave keeps lingering on without ever quite starting a sustained decline. I’m not sure how much to make of the duration here, though — it’s possible that the really low viral incidence we saw in early July puts us in a different boat.

Tuesday’s #COVID19 report was encouraging. Yesterday’s (4 days in one) was discouraging. Today’s is encouraging again. The big picture: over these three uneven reports covering 6 days of data, MN has 9,080 cases on 155K tests, a 5.86% positivity rate, slightly up from before.

@Marcel_LJ 7-days is still an arbitrary number. Best new delta variant specific data shows ~4 days from exposure to detectable viral loads. Much faster than original strain. A test every 3-4 days will be more effective to capture positives and reduce spread.

Makes sense

@Marcel_LJ As an epidemiologist, @Marcel_LJ is correct. The delta variant is an entirely different beast and assuming that vaccinated can't be spreaders is outdated (vaccines still highly effective against severe disease). NFL should increase testing to keep everyone safe.

I’ll be honest, beyond incentivizing players to get the vaccine, I don’t really understand the point of testing vaccinated players every two weeks instead of either every week or daily — Brandon Beane said the league didn’t offer an explanation for the policy