Bespoke Intel

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Bespoke Intel

Bespoke Intel

@BespokeIntel

Primary Research For The Buyside. https://t.co/AlnlsGflPm

Port Washington, New York Katılım Ekim 2012
1.7K Takip Edilen1.5K Takipçiler
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Bespoke Intel
Bespoke Intel@BespokeIntel·
AI demand isn’t slowing down in enterprise budgets. Net spending score for AI/ML: +83%—the highest by a wide margin in our latest IT decision-maker survey. Every other software category trails meaningfully. This isn’t a hype cycle question anymore—it’s a capital allocation question. Reward AI capex or punish it? New primary survey data 👇
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Things Noticed
Things Noticed@thingsnoticed·
$INTU is down 20% and I keep going back and forth on this one. The numbers weren't bad. They actually raised guidance. So what are people selling? I think it's this -> TurboTax grabs your inputs, spits out a return, doesn't explain anything. A general AI model does the same job but talks back. That's a hard gap to close when you're a legacy product. But then -> 100 million customers, 40 years of tax data, regulatory relationships built over decades. That's not easy to replicate. Maybe they just become the interface layer for AI agents rather than fight them. They cut 17% of staff and signed with Anthropic and OpenAI the same week. I don't read that as panic. I read that as a company that sees what's coming and is trying to be on the right side of it. Still not sure how this plays out. Doesn't feel like a company that disappears. Feels like a company in the middle of figuring out whether its moat is an asset or just a slower way to lose.
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QualityAtScale
QualityAtScale@QualityAtScale_·
As you would expect after $INTU earnings release and the stock down 20%. We start to see analysts downgrades and an investigation about misleading investors. In the end, sentiment drives price, and right now Intuit’s sentiment is in the gutter. As the business keeps growing like management is outlining, I think we eventually work our way through this.
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Bespoke Intel
Bespoke Intel@BespokeIntel·
New chart tomorrow (from our latest Tax Prep Survey). $INTU $HRB
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Bespoke Intel
Bespoke Intel@BespokeIntel·
On yesterday's call, $INTU CEO Sasan Goodarzi explicitly noted share loss among sub-$50k "simple filers," admitting they "lost on price" as macro e-files contracted. Look at our Vol. 5 tracking data below. Our consumer panels signaled the multi-year foundation of this trend. Even then, $HRB defectors were largely bypassing TurboTax, causing "None of the above" to balloon to 9.0%. Next up, our proprietary panel of practicing CPAs tackles the stickier side: TurboTax Live encroachment, QuickBooks moat, and real-world software AI adoption. Original thread below 👇
Bespoke Intel@BespokeIntel

Is $HRB losing its grip on customer retention? Our proprietary data (n=1,250+) shows a notable shift in consumer behavior. Analysts modeling the tax space might want to take note. Among respondents who used H&R Block the previous year, retention dropped from 80% (Feb '24) to 70% (Feb '25). Data breakdown below 👇

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Rorschach Stocks
Rorschach Stocks@RorschachStocks·
There are probably some gems that will emerge in the coming years in software/SaaS land but buying software names rn is not Buffett buying Amex, GEICO, Apple, etc. Those were company specific issues, not industry wide existential threats. Buying shit like $INTU bc it’s beat up makes zero sense to me rn unless you enjoy pain.
Rorschach Stocks@RorschachStocks

I think one mistake I’ve made is thinking I found something attractive when it’s just been beat up bc one of its factors got beat up. You can still invest but you gotta be extra sure it’s an extremely compelling thesis specific to that stock or else you’re just swimming against the tide banking on that factor coming back into fashion. Sounds dumb and obvious but wasn’t to me.

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Evergreen
Evergreen@evrgn11112231·
I bought $INTU Seems extremely cheap at mid teens economic earnings, high quality, growing DD, and likely an AI beneficiary. Quickbooks is 60% of revenue, and growing twice the rate of Turbotax (which itself is still growing Mid to HSD). What am I missing?
Evergreen@evrgn11112231

Gone for a few days and… Did I resurrect / provoke @GavinSBaker who is now spitting fire and roasting people in comments all over the place on here lmao 🔥🔥 lol at people freaking out about (or downplaying) $META ’s $RDDT knock off… this is just the beginning (infinite apps thesis inning one)… for those saying “threads was a failure” don’t look now but it’s not? #5 most downloaded app in app store today. The Forum app from Meta is cool but the best part is the “ask” tab which is an ai chatbot that specifically only pulls from the Groups community and can be / likely will be a very interesting standalone chatbot app (AI answers but only summarizing and linking answers given by real people over decades). the Forum app should default to grant you the option for posting under an avatar though vs your real name if the goal is to drive a real engagement step change (same thing should be upfront in threads). re Meta layoffs - the handwringing and entitlement by people on here in the tech ecosystem about this is quite insane… very out of touch group. separately but related - under discussed yet but very interesting phenomenon is Meta’s decision to move 7k engineers to exclusively focus now on AI products and data labeling. Not only are we going to have a workforce greater than the size of anthropic and OAI exclusively focused on building capabilities at scale that no one else really can, but will also get a lot of cheap / forced attrition from toxic employees who think they are too good for this kind of work. Google i/o was super lame and confirmed my views on their inability to ship and that the race to win in consumer / agentic AI has been won (by meta) before it even started I bought a software stock this week. anyone who has followed me on here or known me irl should know how big of a deal that is as i’ve long hated the space broadly. put me officially in the software bull camp now though as my exposure is now larger than my semi exposure. any guess what i bought? will tell in time have work to do first. what else did i miss?

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Rallies Arena
Rallies Arena@ralliesarena·
Claude just fully sold out of its Intuit $INTU shares in the Rallies AI Arena calling the thesis "officially broken"
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WallStreetVet
WallStreetVet@Sly_Dawg33·
I’ll only say this once. This might be the fastest realistic way to build serious wealth by the end of 2026. My updated AI & Frontier Tech Watchlist (Today’s Hot Stocks Edition): $DELL — $295 Must Buy $HPE — $38 Must Buy $NOW — $100 Must Buy $ADBE — $242 Must Buy $INTU — $320 Must Buy $ROP — $322 Must Buy Here’s why each one belongs here: $DELL: AI server & PC leader with massive data center exposure and direct hyperscaler relationships. $HPE: Enterprise AI infrastructure, servers, and edge computing powerhouse. Underrated play on the buildout. $NOW: ServiceNow — the AI platform automating enterprise workflows at scale. Sticky revenue and huge TAM. $ADBE: Adobe — AI creative tools (Firefly) and enterprise software with explosive monetization. $INTU: Intuit — AI-powered fintech (TurboTax, QuickBooks) disrupting personal & small business finance. $ROP: Roper Technologies — high-margin vertical software empire using AI to dominate niche markets. No hype. No lottery tickets. Just real companies building the AI infrastructure, enterprise software, creative tools, and fintech layers of the next decade. They keep asking why I don’t charge for this. Simple: I’ve made enough. Sharing conviction plays I actually believe in is my hobby now. Save this post. Check back December 2026. NFA
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GreenDot Stocks
GreenDot Stocks@GreendotStocks·
Intuit $INTU serves around 100 million consumers. Most investors still think “tax software.” But this is a much broader platform business with sticky recurring revenue and a selloff that may have gone too far. Why we think it could not be 60% undervalued: greendotstocks.com/articles/intui…
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Bespoke Intel
Bespoke Intel@BespokeIntel·
One thing we did not expect from our latest accountant survey: Most respondents were aware of AI functionality embedded in tax/accounting platforms… but only a small minority reported using those features regularly. More data next week.
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TerminalBuyer
TerminalBuyer@Stypi18·
Porfolio update: Holding some cash as I think if market dont like $CRM earnings I will add to this positions. $NOW $INTU $MSFT $IGV
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Hardik Shah
Hardik Shah@AIStockSavvy·
$INTU | Mizuho reiterates 𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦 on 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐮𝐢𝐭, 𝐜𝐮𝐭𝐬 𝐏𝐓 𝐭𝐨 $𝟓𝟎𝟎 from $600 Analyst sees Intuit's recent share decline as an overreaction, believing the long-term growth narrative remains intact, driven by the TurboTax Live transition, QuickBooks price increases, and aggressive buybacks.
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FundSpec.IO
FundSpec.IO@fundspec·
Intuit $INTU Mizuho Lowers price target from 600.00 to 500.00. Maintains Outperform. Don't just watch INTU move, predict it! Build your own custom AI trading models for INTU today by downloading the FundSpec App on the Apple App Store or Google Play Store!
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Matt Holibaugh
Matt Holibaugh@ZeroDayFlawLLC·
@HolySmokas $INTU is pretty great here I think. It may go lower, but I think we will be much higher in 5 years.
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Jeremy Lefebvre
Jeremy Lefebvre@HolySmokas·
Best stock to buy in the market right now in your opinion? Go ⬇️
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Architect of Alpha ▲
Architect of Alpha ▲@ondrejslunecko·
Intuit Q3 FY2026 earnings $INTU Tax season delivered again. Intuit's Q3 (its seasonally biggest quarter) grew across every line. Service revenue now $7.8B, up 11%. Operating income up 8%. Net income up 8.7%. Just a deeply entrenched business extracting more value every year from the same captive users. Boring in the best possible way. Key metrics Q3 FY25 → Q3 FY26: Total revenue: $7,754M → $8,558M (+10.4%) Operating income: $3,720M → $4,020M (+8.1%) Net income: $2,820M → $3,064M (+8.7%) EPS (basic): $10.09 → $11.10 (+10.0%) Grade: A
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Kit Winder, CFA
Kit Winder, CFA@WinderKit·
Both $ZTS and $INTU have suffered 20% drops in single days since Terry Smith bought. Brutal.
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Kit Winder, CFA@WinderKit

@investseekers I found it fascinating that having struggled because he ignored over-valuation, he's still happy to buy a few names trading on very low cash flow yields ( $ZTS, $INTU) But $WKL interesting, although that too completely ignores momentum. Plus, is he overdoing the #GLP1 fear?

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SIG
SIG@gsigtrades·
Wow $INTU really pumping now, seems I sold too early, free money is always good money so I’m not complaining.
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Anthony DiBenedetto
Anthony DiBenedetto@AnthonyDiBs·
$INTU is bouncing slightly after yesterday’s sharp selloff, but the market is still focused on the same issue: TurboTax. The company beat earnings and raised full-year guidance, yet the stock still fell ~20%. Why? TurboTax growth came in lighter than investors wanted, the segment outlook was trimmed, and AI is forcing the market to reassess how durable guided tax prep pricing really is. Intuit still has a strong ecosystem across TurboTax, QuickBooks, Credit Karma, and Mailchimp. But if AI compresses the perceived value of software guidance, even great incumbents have to re-prove pricing power. The stock stabilizing today does not erase that debate.
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