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@BetWithLB

Like to talk betting angles that are usually better in theory than practice

Katılım Haziran 2018
50 Takip Edilen71 Takipçiler
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LB@BetWithLB·
@Insidetheirish @PardonMyTake Why is it wild? He's more experienced, has time in the pros, won his championship, and wants to give a fellow coach some words of advice. Kudos to Hammock for being generous enough to offer, and to Freeman for being strong enough to listen.
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LB@BetWithLB·
@jrs_rankings 8-4 Iowa is the only reason I'd want to see the move to 24
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Jon “JR” Rhoades
Jon “JR” Rhoades@jrs_rankings·
One of the primary issues people raise with the 24-team playoff is that "8-4 Iowa" would make it. Well, "8-4 Iowa" also: 1. Came closest of any team to beating the undefeated national champions that season. 2. Sent the second-most players to the NFL Combine in the Big Ten. 3. Beat a Vanderbilt team that contended for a spot in the 12-team playoff. Brand bias and judging teams solely by their record have to end.
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LB@BetWithLB·
@birds_on_bat_82 @MichaelWBratton I just don't get this. If the SEC just means more, surely winning it, and getting a bye, is worth the risk for an edge case team. Georgia, Ole Miss, Aggies, OSU, Indiana, TTU etc were all in regardless of CG. Bama + BYU were the only at risk teams because they were lower anyway
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SEC Mike
SEC Mike@MichaelWBratton·
Alabama is not going to make the Playoff. The fallout from that is going to be fascinating. What happens to the SEC Championship Game? What happens to the Playoff?
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LB@BetWithLB·
@CF_Budge They could do the show and just give teams some sort of @KFordRatings style "in the discussion" rating. Even as simple as looking good, on track, in trouble. Nothing that would tie the committee into this Bama ND Miami mess. Then rank them at the end.
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LB@BetWithLB·
@DanWetzel The problem isn't the CGs it's the NY6. If you keep your NY6 as playoff games and on NY there's no way around it.
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Dan Wetzel
Dan Wetzel@DanWetzel·
Conference Championship Weekend SEC: Alabama already defeated Georgia (Tide need to avoid blowout loss) Big 12: Texas Tech already defeated BYU Big Ten: 1-2 matchup, but both teams in with a bye, would’ve been epic in regular season (don’t expand league to 18 teams) ACC: no comment Eliminate and start the playoff earlier so national title game isn’t Jan 19/20
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LB@BetWithLB·
@Kberg43 @LChaney_ I would say that only applies to CG losers who were already in. If Bama are 10th tonight, and if they lose to UGA, they won't drop down. And if BYU are 12th and lose they won't drop either. But only one would be in. I think Ole Miss are safely in fwiw.
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Kevin Bergman
Kevin Bergman@Kberg43·
@BetWithLB @LChaney_ Wild card will be what committee does with Ole Miss There’s precedence in keeping conference champ losers in, and there’s also precedence in dropping teams who lose players/coaches, which they could be losing both Only 2 spots between Ole Miss and ND
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Luke Chaney
Luke Chaney@LChaney_·
The committee might find itself in a bit of a pickle. They almost have to jump Alabama over Notre Dame if the Crimson Tide are guaranteed to make the playoffs regardless of what happens in the SEC Championship. If they don't, it would a create a situation where if BYU won the Big 12 Championship and Bama lost, they would have to move the Crimson Tide up a spot despite the loss to allow BYU to steal Notre Dame's bid. I'm very interested to watch what happens tonight
Luke Chaney@LChaney_

Updated @FDSportsbook CFP odds this morning: Alabama (-2000) Notre Dame (-375) BYU (+390) Miami (+540) Texas (+1800) Vanderbilt (+4000)

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LB@BetWithLB·
@Kberg43 @LChaney_ Yeah I'd agree. TTU is -550 to win which would suggest there's a small additional risk (around 5%) that ND misses out even if BYU lose. Again not sure it's enough to say the rankings will be different tonight than last week, but with all the noise it's probably about right.
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Kevin Bergman
Kevin Bergman@Kberg43·
@BetWithLB @LChaney_ What’s confusing about this is Notre dame They’re roughly -400. Only situation there’s any chance they’re left out is BYU winning the big 12, and could also get in in that scenario if Bama loses Shouldn’t their odds be higher? Bama odds seem to reflect they’re absolutely in
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LB@BetWithLB·
@BrianBuckWargo @LChaney_ It seems to be bouncing around alright, but -2000 to -3000 is only about 1.5% difference (95.2 to 96.8). That doesn't scream to me that we'll see much jumping between 8th and 12th.
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LB@BetWithLB·
@SPG9814 The graph isn't comparing apples with apples. 10th (whether that's Bama now, Bama with an SECCG loss or ND for example) is in with a BYU loss, and out with a BYU win. The 71% includes the approx 45% chance of beating UGA, and 80% chance TTU win. The 39% chance is basically on BYU
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LB@BetWithLB·
@NickyPerkss They won't drop for losing. BYU winning is the only way 10th are out. Even if they get blown out, which they won't.
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Nick Perkins
Nick Perkins@NickyPerkss·
You want to watch College Football completely meltdown? Have this committee keep Bama out if they go on to lose to Georgia in the SEC Championship The entire landscape will be upended, and Greg Sankey will go scorched earth
Kalshi Sports@KalshiSports

Chances to Qualify for the CFP, per Kalshi: 99% — Ohio St, Oregon, UGA, IU, A&M 98% — Ole Miss 97% — Oklahoma, Texas Tech 89% — Alabama 76% — Notre Dame 61% — Virginia 58% — North Texas 42% — Tulane 38% — JMU Others: BYU (20%), Miami (11%), Vandy (9%), Texas (4%)

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LB@BetWithLB·
@SPG9814 Didn't this happen with Bama last season too? Odds movement suggested they were in right at the last minute.
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SPG@SPG9814·
Alabama odds of making the CFP are now (-3000) while Notre Dame is at (-420) Think we might end up jumping Notre Dame tomorrow in the new CFP rankings
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LB@BetWithLB·
@ESPN_BillC I feel like every Georgia Bama game in recent memory was predicted to go UGA 27 - 24 Alabama
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Bill Connelly
Bill Connelly@ESPN_BillC·
CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK SP+ PICKS Ohio State 26, Indiana 25 Dawgs 27, Tide 24 Texas Tech 33, BYU 21 UVA 33, Duke 25 North Texas 37, Tulane 29 JMU 37, Troy 17 UNLV 30.4, Boise 30.0 Kennesaw State 31, Jax State 30 Miami-OH 24, WMU 23 Full list: #gid=420776501" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Bill Connelly tweet media
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LB@BetWithLB·
@Shane1Alexander @CFBMatrix They won't be punished. If they lose + BYU lose, they stay 10th, and are in. If they lose and BYU win, they stay 10th but don't get in because BYU gets the auto and along with the G5 and ACC reps so 10th won't cut it. But there is no punishment or downgrade imo
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SA@Shane1Alexander·
@CFBMatrix If you penalize the SEC conference champ participant who was firmly in the CFP field going into the week, you might as well end conference title games. How does an at-large team get penalized for playing an extra game and jump by someone who had a Bye week?
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Dave Bartoo
Dave Bartoo@CFBMatrix·
Can a bama loss in the sec title game knock them out of top 10. Byu loss to tech knocks them out and Miami sneaks into the 10 spot ND gets the 9 spot because close enough for h2h? Miami at OU and ND to the Sip?
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Sean
Sean@ThePastorSean·
@BetWithLB @Asher_FLT @MasonPlummer_ They shouldn’t be. It should be the 12 best teams in the nation. Who cares about conference champs and G5 teams don’t belong at all
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Mason
Mason@MasonPlummer_·
Irish fans, the perfect storm is brewing. We might be screwed
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LB@BetWithLB·
@Asher_FLT @onetruehoosier @MasonPlummer_ With that Aggies loss TTU could be 4th come Tuesday. Not sure they would drop 7 places for a conference game loss. Win today and TTU are as good as guaranteed to be in IMO. And if any of OU, Bama, Ducks or ND lose today then its a cert for TTU.
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Asher
Asher@Asher_FLT·
@BetWithLB @onetruehoosier @MasonPlummer_ That's how I see it. It might happen because it's the Big12 and not Big10 or SEC, but I can't help but feel that would be very harsh on TTU, even if it would benefit Notre Dame.
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Sean
Sean@ThePastorSean·
@Asher_FLT @MasonPlummer_ Why does first team out at 11 mean when 12 teams make the playoff? I don’t get it.
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Dave Bartoo
Dave Bartoo@CFBMatrix·
@arisports thanks for having me on air today. Enjoyed having the mic. Hope it was good for the listeners!
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LB@BetWithLB·
@Chrisb_168421 @DylanEveryday Those two, along with Hoosiers, are certainly good enough to beat anyone on any given day but just unproven in terms of going 4/4 would be my take.
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Chrisb
Chrisb@Chrisb_168421·
@DylanEveryday I don't disagree with these teams, but I might include Ol Miss (if they don't have to play up North) and TxT if their QB stays healthy. Thoughts?
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Official Ohio State DG
Official Ohio State DG@DylanEveryday·
The National Champion will be 1 of these 5 teams Ohio State Texas A&M Alabama Georgia Notre Dame These are teams capable of winning 3 or 4 playoff games in a row.
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LB@BetWithLB·
@BCSKnowHow @CFBPlayoff For all the drama over the committee's ranking since the move to 12 its basically been the BCS with only minor diffs
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BCSKnowHow.com
BCSKnowHow.com@BCSKnowHow·
For the first time this season, let's take a look at a side-by-side of our simulated BCS and the @CFBPlayoff committee rankings:
BCSKnowHow.com tweet media
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Keşfet

@jrs_rankings @MichaelWBratton @CF_Budge @KFordRatings @DanWetzel @Kberg43 @LChaney_ @BrianBuckWargo