Ben Biggers

@zerohedge @grok fit it’s rated by moody’s would that make it public credit

Private Credit Fund Run by FS and KKR Cut to Junk by Moody’s

@NewYorkFed @grok what would be some examples of both “repo” and “prime brokerage” companies the hedge funds would be borrowing from in the illustration above?

Hedge funds often augment their investment positions using leverage. The leverage sources can be divided into three categories: prime brokerage, repo, and other secured borrowing. Prime brokerage and repo borrowing have increased rapidly over the past few years, as shown in this chart. Learn more: nyfed.org/4o0scSm

@elonmusk @grok I know that most LLCs choose to incorporate in Delaware regardless of the where their physical footprint is. Is this the same for corporations like Coinbase?

Delaware continues to bleed companies …

@charliebilello @grok can you give me these same debt/gdp ballpark figures over time but for Japan?

US National Debt as % of GDP... 1975: 33% 1985: 40% 1995: 64% 2005: 61% 2015: 103% 2025: 125% 2035: ?

@Barchart @grok how can m2 be increasing while the fed is conducting quantitative tightening?

U.S. M2 Money Supply jumps to a new all-time high of $22.2 Trillion 🤑

@KobeissiLetter @grok what is causing this increase in the money supply?

BREAKING: US M2 money supply surged another +4.8% YoY in August 2025 to a record $22.2 trillion. This marks the fastest pace since July 2022, in-line with a +4.8% YoY increase in the prior month. US money supply has now grown for 18 consecutive months. Furthermore, inflation-adjusted M2 rose +1.8% YoY in August, posting its 12th-straight monthly increase. The US Dollar’s bear market continues.

@_Investinq Would add that Fannie and Freddie, while implicitly backed by the government, are self sustaining profit generating businesses that stand on their own and can likely absorb any losses from multifamily defaults. Their private sector mortgage originators also share in the downside.

A slow-motion collapse is sweeping through commercial real estate. Office buildings are vacant, mortgages are defaulting, cities are broke. Taxpayers are quietly being lined up to take the fall. (a thread)

@_Investinq Yep. Another great post by your account.

Totally fair points. I’d just add that reserves have been steadily declining, so if banks are still expanding credit, they’re doing it from a thinner cushion. That might imply more leverage or a shift in how they’re managing liquidity. And on the deficit side yeah, if the private sector’s funding it, it’s more of a circular flow. But once the Fed steps in or deposits migrate to the banking system, that’s where you can start seeing real M2 effects.

🚨 America’s money supply just broke a record. There’s now $22.1 trillion circulating in the U.S. economy. That’s more than at any point in history even during the peak of the COVID stimulus era. (a thread)

@_Investinq I think the major factor holding up the money supply increase is fractional reserve banking. Banks can still create money out of thin air even if the fed isn’t easing.

@_Investinq @_Investinq I don’t think deficit spending on its own increases m2. The private sector has to purchase treasuries using back deposits to fund the deficit creating an offsetting affect. However this is usually paired with the fed making open market purchases of USTs.

@Barchart @grok How does the US treasury have the funds to buy back treasuries?

@johnrobertsFox @grok who are these world leaders left to right?

I covered the White House for more than a decade, and never witnessed a meeting like this.

@_Investinq @grok is this above correct? Wouldn’t a stronger yen make importing Japanese goods more expensive for the US?

There’s also the FX impact: If BoJ hikes rates and the yen strengthens, it changes the math for global investors. Stronger yen = cheaper imports for the U.S. (good for inflation) But it can hurt U.S. exporters (their goods become more expensive abroad).

Japan’s 5Y auction just printed its weakest demand since 2020. Behind that number is a signal for money flows worldwide. Here’s the full story in simple terms. (a thread)

@stats_feed @grok does this have anything to do with Switzerland not being part of the EU?

Average wealth per adult: 🇨🇭 Switzerland: $685,230 🇺🇸 US: $551,350 🇦🇺 Australia: $496,820 🇩🇰 Denmark: $409,950 🇳🇿 NZ: $388,760 🇳🇴 Norway: $385,340 🇸🇬 Singapore: $382,960 🇨🇦 Canada: $369,580 🇳🇱 Netherlands: $358,230 🇧🇪 Belgium: $352,810 🇫🇷 France: $312,230 🇬🇧 UK: $302,780 (UBS)

@ClarenceWongCRE I typically do see a land mark up. Although it may hurt the appearance of the GP’s return on cost, if they contribute their land at today’s market value they may be able to claim a higher ownership % in a JV negotiation which will ultimately affect their total profits.

@BiggersBen Usually just take land at actual cost basis. That’s been my experience working for a retail developer. Not sure if others mark-to-market land value if purchased years ago. Have you seen this, Ben? Curious about scenario & use case etc. Thx.

As a real estate developer, you typically want to build to a yield on cost (YOC) with a decent spread over a stabilized market cap that a buyer is willing to pay. Let’s dig in 👇. Keep in mind that YOC = stabilized NOI / all-in cost. All-in cost comprises of land as well as hard / soft costs, which incl. TI/LC, carry cost (RE taxes/insurance), interest reserve, etc. That spread could run from 150-200+ bps. In Daniel’s ex. below, if stabilized market exit cap is 6.9% & the developer is building to a 6.9% cap, that’s 0 spread, so break even. So you’d probably want to build to a 8.5% - 9% YOC or 160-210 bps over 6.9% in our example. Some developers like Tyler Alley build to an even higher spread, but tougher to pencil. Keep in mind “blended” market exit cap rates, e.g. some ground leases & quick-service retail build-to-suits at your project may command lower cap rates, bringing avg cap rate down. NOI / cap rate = price, so the lower the cap rate the higher the price. May feel counterintuitive. Buyer is willing to take less yield for better credit, lease term, stronger market/location etc.