Bill Conerly

@ModeledBehavior Ideal: automation in the back; an Italian-looking person in the front tossing dough. (Could be the same dough, over and over again.)

Pizza making has been fully automated. This has been true for years. But if you go into a pizza shop across the country, it's mostly still people doing it by hand. Can automate != will automate

Read more in my Forbes article: forbes.com/sites/billcone…

A year-long Strait of Hormuz closure could cut global GDP by 2%—recession territory. But most businesses only need to check two things: recession sensitivity and oil price exposure. Everything else can wait.

read more on my Forbes article forbes.com/sites/billcone…

Layoff announcements jumped 58% in 2025 — but the real data tells a different story. WARN Act incentives inflate the numbers. Initial claims & JOLTS surveys point to a layoff drought instead. #layoffs #economy #labormarket

YouTube link: youtu.be/thgEVQDXXmM Measure Success Podcast: 40strategy.com/tariffs-energy…

I was interviewed about the economic outlook (including tariffs and AI) by Carl Cox on the Measure Success Podcast, also available on YouTube. Carl asks great questions because he understands what matters for business leaders.

see the charts more clearly, or download pdf, at conerlyconsulting.com/newsletter/bus…

The Businomics Newsletter for March 2026 is out with charts on employment, oil prices, retail sales, new homes, construction, business investment, interest rates and the stock market. #economics #oil #construction

My latest Forbes article, "International Trade After Trump: 4 Business Issues Explained By Economist" is at forbes.com/sites/billcone…

Free trade is gone. Post-Trump trade policy means tariffs, political risk, and supply chain uncertainty are permanent. Executives need product-specific strategies and on-the-ground intelligence — not the old playbook. New rules start now. #internationaltrade #supplychain #tariffs

My new Forbes article is on speed and economic uncertainty. forbes.com/sites/billcone…

CEOs rank uncertainty as their #1 worry for 2026 — yet slow decisions make it worse. Executives estimate 1-5% revenue gains from faster choices. Speed isn't just efficiency. It's your best risk management tool.

More in my Forbes article: forbes.com/sites/billcone…

K-shaped economy claims miss the bigger picture. Low earners: +200% wages since 2000. High earners: +185%. Current gaps? Temporary. Middle class? Rising. Business takeaway: Trust your sales data over sensational headlines.

Forbes article on this: forbes.com/sites/billcone…

The AI market structure is changing fast. Big players are moving into specialized territory — and smaller vendors may not survive. Business leaders who act now on vendor lock-in will have the advantage. #AIStrategy #AIMarketStructure #ArtificialIntelligence

from my Forbes article: forbes.com/sites/billcone…

Kevin Warsh is known as an inflation hawk, yet he might still cut interest rates as Fed chair. Three economic concepts at work in interest rate move in 2026—including AI's productivity surge. But decisions from a committee; Fed unlikely to cut this year.

@BruceDGilley From google The word "chief" originates from the Old French word 'chef', meaning "leader, ruler, or head," which emerged around 1300. This term derives from the Latin 'caput' ("head"), ultimately tracing back to the Proto-Indo-European root '*kaput-', signifying the head of a ...

"Indigenous" scholars at Portland State complain that the term "chief diversity officer" is offensive. President bows to pressure, citing article by retired Comanche professor (yes, the same tribe whose chiefs oversaw the most brutal empire in the Americas).