@BillyBobInvests It will likely be somewhat more upside (45%-50%) in less time, maybe 3 or 4 months. That's why I still think we could top this summer.
@DaveHcontrarian Hello sir
I’ve watched all your interviews the past 1.5 years
A consistent theme is that the last leg will be the steepest
For the S&P, last year was about 40% in 6-6.5 months
I would guess whenever the next leg starts (seems soon) - it will dwarf that
@DaveHcontrarian@Rob030544019578@meta_slayer@SJones67581@jessebday Thanks for your input
I do not try to have knee jerk reactions
I’m looking at the body of the past several months - which has been flat/red for indices
Also I understand things take time
Even though the idea of a blow off top is exciting for anyone long in various assets
@BillyBobInvests@Rob030544019578@meta_slayer@SJones67581@jessebday You guys draw conclusions based on very short-term moves. If all of a sudden the S&P rallies to 7500 in two weeks you'll be asking if we might get to my target in a month. It's a waste of time to speculate based on what's happening right now.
Here's my most recent interview recorded 2/18/26 with @jessebday.Discussed the melt-up into the top,the bust & 80% bear to follow & the commodity supercycle that will follow the bust.Discussed the Fed,the big money pump & the inflation cycle to follow. youtube.com/watch?v=2KD94d…
@DaveHcontrarian@Rob030544019578@meta_slayer@SJones67581@jessebday Hello sir
Even though some of us have questions regarding semantics - most of us agree that you will be right
I guess at this point it’s a when not if sort of question
Ik you say watch & learn but feels like this bull can keep extending for many more months (into EOY at least)
@BGatesIsaPyscho There are real adults out there who will watch that cgi goyslop & say “yes this is real”
FFS bugs life looks more realistic than whatever tf that was
🚨 “Japanese astronaut has shared spectacular footage of a dazzling Aurora filmed from the International space station”
Anyone else see the problem here?
@DaveHcontrarian@DouglasCam10123 Fair enough
I guess you think I have no idea because perhaps I’m (vastly) underestimating how fast various markets can run to the top
This is no disrespect or slight to you - I appreciate all of your work & insights
I agree just on an elongated timeframe is all
Cheers
@DaveHcontrarian@DouglasCam10123 Hello sir
Exciting to hear this coming from you
So right now it’s fair to say you expect a top in Q3 - albeit that different markets won’t top simultaneously
Seems almost unfathomable for a top by mid year though
Type inflows for $SPX to do 40% in 4.5M is fever dream-esque
@DouglasCam10123 As I've said over & over the 10yr is headed for 3% and probably below by this summer. The rate consolidation is likely over. The next several months should be fun as the stock, bond & metals markets all rally big-time. Even BTC might finally reverse course and see a nice rally.
@DaveHcontrarian I think I get it
DXY, inflation & rates trend lower into the equity top, as longer duration yields go below 3% around then
From there - near 0% long rates bottom of the bust
I’m just asking in regards to any loose timeframe for all this - 10YR going sub 3% by Q4 seems likely
@BillyBobInvests I don't think you understand my forecast. I have a much more bullish forecast than PTJ & I've said many times that lower rates will be part of the driving force.
@DaveHcontrarian hello sir
Despite a sharp pullback in metals & lengthy consolidation in equities - do you still believe its highly likely the mentioned sectors top in the 1st half?
Truly would be a historic run if achieved
@DaveHcontrarian True that
What do you think about his view that all if not most of the cuts this yr will be bullish?
Ofc your call of a global busts suggests cutting will eventually be amidst a big downturn - but that’s far away - logical that cuts serve as a tailwind for 6-12M in the interim?
@DaveHcontrarian TY for your perspective
Paul Tudor Jones recently spoke of a blow off top similar to 1999 - but even more explosive
1 of his major reasons is the projections of the FED cutting into EOY
By his view sounds like he’s looking at the totality/bulk of cuts not just next few in 1H
@BillyBobInvests It will top out when it does but yes that's quite possible. I've never said highly likely to any timing of the top. Quite possible is very different from highly likely. Just let it play out.
Metals are in big bull markets that have much more to go.The steep sell-off sets them up for another even steeper leg up.I am raising my gold target to $6800 from $5500 & silver to $180 from $125.Also raising my miner targets to the following:GDX $180,GDXJ $250,SIL $220,SILJ $90.
@DaveHcontrarian@JasonBr38474283@competentmanpod Hello sir
Decent move up in equities these next few months & blow off top 2H of the year ?
Hard seeing S&P moving 40% by end of 1H though
Especially when it’s doing literally nothing & has 0 momentum whatsoever
Here's my interview with Tom Bodrovics @competentmanpod recorded 1/28/26.Lots of discussion about the metals, the equity markets & the bond market as well as a good amount about the global bust that will follow the melt-up & what we likely see after that. youtube.com/watch?v=jck6sk…
@DaveHcontrarian@MacroRambo@xchgffgh@m111ark@Phoenix18217110@Tej_Sandhu@Nick193527 Hi sir
From a general standpoint - when will rallys finally be met with optimism as opposed to skittishness, top calling, etc
I know a lower dollar & rates are a big factor amongst a cutting fed but is there anything else you’re looking at that could invoke true animal spirits?
@MacroRambo@xchgffgh@m111ark@Phoenix18217110@Tej_Sandhu@Nick193527 Sentiment isn't really connected to any price level.The fact that sentiment hasn't even approached extremes yet & that the wall of worry has been rebuilt on small pullbacks has allowed the bull mkt to extend.Once sentiment reaches extreme,mkt will top but not really tied to price
@DaveHcontrarian@AirDude11@dwal111@TradeGateHub Hello sir
Gold’s been doing great
Silver is literally parabolic
Meanwhile the S&P is basically at the same price level as 3 months ago - with a potential pullback looming as you mentioned
Not sure how stagnant price action in equities suddenly morphs into 40% in a few months
For those who have not seen it yet,here is my 1/7/26 interview with DalePinkert @TradeGateHub where we discussed my bullish outlook for the equity markets,the bond market & the metals & bearish view of the dollar. Always enjoy looking at the charts w/Dale. youtube.com/watch?v=UIVqg_…
@DaveHcontrarian Merry Christmas sir
Sure looks like the metals are a premonition for what’s to come with equity indices
Next 3-4 months should be exciting
@DaveHcontrarian hello sir
The market has been in a bull run since late 2022 - 3+ yrs at this point
What’s the main reason why you think the markets end in parabolic fashion instead of a steady float upward?
Especially when each new rally seems to be met with skepticism & fear
@DaveHcontrarian@Phoenix18217110@hermit_flannel@Bluewatertrader@TommyGunn0310 Did not mean to emphasize any particular timeframe & I was trying to make it clear I understood this premise
It’s just more so alluding to if you think a blow off top is how this cycle ends still, regardless of timing
Thank you for your thoughts as always
@BillyBobInvests@Phoenix18217110@hermit_flannel@Bluewatertrader@TommyGunn0310 Nothing has changed.I've probably said a million times that my forecast does not involve a precise time.Yet many of you keep putting words in my mouth in an effort to pin it down.If this were a class you would fail because you want to turn my cycle forecast into a trading call.