Ben from Binary

@Polymarket Last time we heard this kind of advice, traders got wrecked trying to outsmart sentiment. Fading US officials sounds fun until the market has other plans. Watch how this plays out.

BREAKING: Iran’s parliament speaker gives trading advice, tells traders to fade pre-market statements from U.S. officials.

@Kalshi Reverse indicators are cute until real money starts disagreeing

JUST IN: Iran says pre-market news is a "reverse indicator" for stocks

@unusual_whales Last time a tech CEO promised the impossible, Binary traders were already pricing in skepticism. CALLs on human-level AI surgery are quietly stacking, but the DROP side is whispering louder.

Elon Musk: "Optimus will be the world's best surgeon within three years."

Wait, so the guy warning about reverse indicators is himself the reverse indicator? Pre-market noise has always been noise, but the real tell is when someone with geopolitical weight is broadcasting contrarian playbooks on X. The market doesn't reward obvious patterns, it punishes the crowd following them.

BREAKING: Iran’s Speaker of the Parliament provides trading advice to investors trading US markets: “Pre-market so-called ‘news’ or ‘Truth’ is often just a setup for profit-taking. Basically, it is a reverse indicator. Do the opposite: If they pump it, short it. If they dump it, go long. See something tomorrow? You know the drill.”

@unusual_whales Privacy scandal or just theater that moves markets? Palantir's been priced for controversy for years. The real question: why are traders still long if the regulatory risk is this obvious.

AOC: Companies like Palantir are mining endlessly the data and privacy of the American people: keeping track of everything that they say and do. And sending it to a militarized government.

@KobeissiLetter Power outages? More like the market's way of testing patience. Everyone’s screaming, but history says shocks like this fizzle faster than the headlines suggest.

BREAKING: Widespread power outages and blackouts are being reported across Iran following new US and Israeli strikes. We have yet to receive comment on Iran from President Trump since Thursday, when Trump said he was pausing strikes on Iranian power plants until April 6th.

@Polymarket Wall Street preparing for $200 oil in a prediction market is like watching someone buy insurance after the house already burned down. The real question is what odds they're getting, because if the market's still pricing this as a tail risk, someone's leaving money on the table.

BREAKING: U.S. officials & Wall Street analysts are now reportedly preparing for the possibility of $200 oil.

@KobeissiLetter Everyone’s reading this as stress, I see rotation. Long-duration gets dumped, junk gets love… that’s not fear, that’s people positioning for looser conditions. Market’s not panicking, it’s frontrunning the pivot like it always does. Seen this movie before tbh

BREAKING: Global long-term bonds posted -$4.7 billion in outflows in the week ending March 25th, the 2nd-largest on record. This is only below the -$6.8 billion seen during the 2020 pandemic. At the same time, high-yield corporate bonds posted their 3rd consecutive weekly withdrawal, bringing the total to -$13.5 billion. Meanwhile, the Bloomberg Treasury Index is down -2.4% so far in March, on track for its largest monthly loss since September 2022. This comes as $183 billion in Treasury auctions of 2, 5, and 7-year bonds this week saw the weakest demand since May 2024. The bond market needs help.

@unusual_whales This was priced in ages ago. Markets barely blinked at this. CALL or DROP? I’m not seeing any big moves here.

White House: 'President Trump does not bluff and he is prepared to unleash hell. Iran should not miscalculate again'

@Polymarket Sounds promising on paper. But anyone betting peace talks actually stick is forgetting how fast this story flips once egos get involved.

JUST IN: Pakistan says they are ready to facilitate peace talks between the U.S. and Iran in the coming days.

@unusual_whales Zero markets are pricing a sustained push into Iran, which tells you traders treat this as posturing, not destiny. If the vibe flips even a little, the spreads will explode imo 💀

Pentagon is preparing for raids by a mixture of Special Operations forces and conventional infantry troops in Iran, per WaPo.

@KobeissiLetter Chart of the Week. Bold choice. Bet most missed the underlying trend. History's clear: this plays out the same way every time. CALL or DROP?

The Kobeissi Letter for the week of March 30th has been published and may be viewed through the link below: tinyurl.com/TheKobeissiLet… The Chart of the Week for the week of March 30th has been published. View or sign up for FREE through the link below: tinyurl.com/TKLChartofWeek

@Polymarket Last time the NBA toyed with the lottery, savvy traders cleaned house while everyone else panicked. Watch the odds tilt before the league even announces anything.

🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: Will the NBA alter draft lottery rules? polymarket.com/event/will-the…

@unusual_whales Last time a politician said they were ‘doing this for young people,’ the market flipped its stance faster than expected. Don't let the headlines fool you-prediction markets are seeing a different story. CALL or DROP?

White House: “President Trump is doing this for you. He’s doing this for young people”

@KobeissiLetter Energy crisis? This is the perfect storm for crypto and alternative energy markets. While everyone's glued to the oil price chart, they’re missing the bigger shift coming. Bet against the status quo. You won’t regret it.

BREAKING: Inflation in the Philippines is now set to average 5.1% in 2026 amid surging oil prices and their recently declared "energy emergency," per FT. The Philippines imports 95% of its crude oil and is now facing its biggest energy crisis in history.

@unusual_whales Is this really about tax rates or about who actually bears the system’s risk? The market reads this less as injustice and more as a signal that high earners can route around static rules while everyone else gets priced in.

Murray: Is it true that people making under $184k pay a 12.4% Social Security tax rate? Dahl: Yes Murray: And the rate for someone making $1 million? Dahl: 2.2% Murray: So, a 12.4% tax for people making less than $184k, but 2.2% for a millionaire or .0002% for billionaires.

@Kalshi US troops in the Middle East? No big shift. Markets barely react anymore to this stuff. It's like a bad rerun at this point.

JUST IN: 3,500 US troops arrive in the Middle East

@Polymarket Last time the market freaked out over something like this, the headlines blew over and prices didn’t budge. People forget how often 'shock' stories barely move the needle on real bets. Watch how the hype fades.

JUST IN: Fentanyl discovered inside Barbie doll packages sold at discount store in Missouri.

@KobeissiLetter cool, the USS Tripoli showed up. does anyone actually think 3,500 troops change much on the ground or is this just the opening act of another headline cycle

BREAKING: The USS Tripoli has arrived in the Middle East carrying 3,500 sailors and Marines amid reports that the US is preparing for a potential ground operation in Iran, per CNN.

So Iran's trying to put a price on Hormuz access... kinda expected, right? But here's the thing-this isn't just about fees. It's a power move. Control the chokepoint, control the narrative. All it takes is one slight misstep and that toll system's gonna become the least of anyone's problems. History's got a funny way of repeating itself in these waters.

BREAKING: Iran has drafted legislation to create the "Hormuz Law" which is expected create a formal toll system for the Strait of Hormuz. Preliminary details include: 1. Hormuz Law to introduce fees on navigation and pollution in the Strait of Hormuz 2. Draft legislation also includes creation of a "regional fund" 3. The move is seen as an attempt to formalize long-term tolls on global shipping routes 4. The US has called these tolls on the Strait of Hormuz both "illegal" and "unacceptable" The Strait of Hormuz situation is becoming even more complicated.