@btcbabey 1. Model anchor changed from 66% → 73%
2. Winner’s Curse discount from 22% → 12% (7yr clean safety, 80% completion, ITT/NRI)
It makes a very huge difference using this new data as anchor to do regression model.
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Biotech C Lin
53 posts
@BiotechCLin Why would this cause such a big jump in your model?
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$ABVX
130 patients de-escalated to 25mg → 68% still in clinical remission at week 144. ITT/NRI. 80% completion rate. 7 years of clean safety.
For the upcoming phase 3 maintenance data, delta forecast now improves from ~30pp to ~38pp based on my model.
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@JackMan724444 @seedy19tron It’s very certain now trial result will be good. The question is what will the stock price be ? I will love to do a more aggressive bet with 160/190 spread based on seedy’s price prediction. It is easy to model data outcome but hard to model stock price.
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@BiotechCLin If delta is 35 or over, the stock will be up massively.. @seedy19tron is predicting 35. We will see $ABVX
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Positioned in $ABVX 130/160 June and 130/170 July bull spreads ahead of maintenance readout.
Good luck to all !
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@JacobPlieth 15.2 PFS on 11.2 mo medium follow up. I am not sure if it will be 15.2 PFS if any of the 8 at risk patient at 12 months progresses.
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$BDTX old & updated waterfalls from silevertinib study in 1st-line NSCLC with non-classical mutations, at #ASCO26. ORR 60% is unchanged vs Dec 2025. mPFS 15.2mth is newly disclosed (appears higher than anecdotal ~10mth with off-label Gilotrif).
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Now $ORIC goes after $AVBP & $BDTX in 1st-line PACC lung cancer, and shows why it abandoned relapsed HER2 ex20. Via @ApexOnco -> oncologypipeline.com/apexonco/node/…
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@financebully That is why I was pretty confident it would not beat $AVBP data. $Bdtx is still quite frugal when it comes to cash burn just think hyping your drug is not a good practice.
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@BiotechCLin yes after looking at the data closer, i have to agree with you. i think bdtx may pivot resources entirely to gbm in the coming weeks/months.
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$Bdtx unlikely to hit $Avbp number.
firmonertinib in the first-line treatment of patients with EGFR PACC mutant NSCLC is 14.6 months PFS 16 months.
Any number short of this stock going down. Just bought some put for fun.
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@financebully Hats off to a good biotech investor for not anchor on it. Sorry for your loss. I also bought into their hype in the past and lost money that’s why I have zero trust in the management. Modeling their previous plot with AVBP at similar duration already showed way more PD.
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@financebully Sadly most non classical patients lie in PACC cohort. Other than Fimo there is also $ORIC EGFR tki going for non classical that has much better AEs than silevertinib. The drug was designed for GBM and yet they went for lung CA. What a pity.
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@BiotechCLin the firmonertinib number that you're referring to is in pure pacc patients. the drug is cleaner because it targets a smaller mutation pool. silevertinib tries to target many more.
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@Miljenkoz To find the new overall survival probability on the graph, you multiply the previous probability by this new interval fraction.
55% x 87.5% = 48.1%
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$BDTX is claiming a 15.2 mo preliminary mPFS in 1L NSCLC, but median follow-up is only 11.2 months. Look at the KM curve: it's resting precariously at ~55% with a tiny denominator.
With only 8 patients at risk by month 12, just ONE progression drops the curve below 50%.
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@Miljenkoz If just one of those 8 patients progresses as the data matures
The surviving fraction for that specific moment becomes 7/8 (or 87.5%), because 1 out of the 8 patients progressed.
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@KMIA320 or they indeed progressed but management want the data to look better or else a better data cutoff date should be May 3rd.
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@BiotechCLin Likely due to last patients not having progressed as of data cutoff.
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$BDTX If the cutoff in November 2025 gave a median follow-up of 7.2 months, and the cutoff in April 2026 (approximately 5–6 months later) only gives a median follow-up of 11.2 months, we are "missing" 1–2 months of follow-up time ?
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@financebully Even if the *estimated* PFS 15.2 is true. Still worse than firmonertinib number in PACC patient not to forget firmonertinib have way better AE profiles.
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@BiotechCLin this is wrong. $bdtx silevertinib's (preliminary) 15.2-month mPFS successfully meets the target, beats the historical oral tki ceiling of 7–10 months, and outpaces the real-world benchmarks set by $avbp firmonertinib (10-12 mos).
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@financebully Number 2 the preliminary 15.2 PFS is estimated PFS. Medium follow up time is only 11.2 month and the give an estimated PFS.
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@financebully If the cutoff in November 2025 gave a median follow-up of 7.2 months, and the cutoff in April 2026 (approximately 5–6 months later) only gives a median follow-up of 11.2 months. Number not add up number 1.
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@RNAiAnalyst How is it a surprise when the MoA already tells you it crosses over into inheb and alk7 pathway ?
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@develiforever @BioN00b @AaronRosenblum5 @nociFTW If they only need to tap ATM once why set up another 350M ATM? Hold onto your shares by all means I am certain it will be a 40B MC in 10 years. Difference is are we seeing a 20 dollar 40B MC company or a 200 dollar 40B MC.
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@BiotechCLin @BioN00b @AaronRosenblum5 @nociFTW It was probably out of convenience and practicality but I don’t think they have any issues raising cash from investors.
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@develiforever @BioN00b @AaronRosenblum5 @nociFTW Of course they don’t have issues raising cash from investors, but they can raise twice and become 40 B degrader company but they choose to continue the raise to get 40B.
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